I am about to turn 65 (Jan. 27th). I plan to be on the beach in Rio that day. But it is also the day I become eligible for Medicare. A year after, I start collecting social security. And then what? As I have discussed before, what is there to look forward to after that. You now get all the perks of being a senior citizen which includes discounts (and getting carded again). And finally I have discovered it. It is having cataract surgery. I just spoke to an old friend that I found on Facebook. She is 89 years old and sounds like she is forty. She told me that she is still able to drive, take yoga and do pretty much anything she wants to do. And then she told me the good news. She had Cataract Surgery and now her eye sight is 20/20. I have been wearing glasses since I was eight years old and the idea of not having to wear them is very exciting to me especially when I think of being out on the beach in Rio.
My plan for peace in the middle east: Make Jordan a sucess
September 25, 2009 by avram millerIt is simple: Make Jordan a great success. Arab’s need a role model of success. While Israel’s economic, scientific and cultural successes should demonstrate what is possible in the region, it in fact does the opposite. So it is simple. Let us all help make Jordan a great success. I have just provided some support to permaculture work in Jordan and in Palestine. I plan to do more. The developed world should join together to build up all aspects of Jordon’s economy from agriculture, industry, education, health etc. I think these will not only have the strategic benefit of demonstrating to Arabs what can be done by Arabs on Arab land and instill a significant measure of pride but it should have a major impact on the Palestinians living next door and also provided work for them in Jordan. The more successful Jordan is economically, the more they will become interested in the success of Palestine and the more they will be able to partner with Israel. My dream is that someday, Israel, Jordan, Palestine and Lebanon will form an economic union. How powerful would that be!
Music and the PC
September 11, 2009 by avram miller
only been at this for fifty years
I just got a link (and an email) from Stanly Jungleib who founded Seer Systems and was responsible for the development of the first professional software synthesizer. Stanley had been a member of the group that founded MIDI which is a industry protocol that is still used (I use it almost every day) represent music. I had forgotten my own role in the development of software synthesizers until Stanley’s email. It brought back a lot of memories.
I got started using computers because of my interest in music. Getting into music rather late at the age of 15, I thought of myself more as a composer/arranger than pianist back then. But I was really interested in Jazz which is improvised. In late 1966 when I went to work for Joe Kamiya at the Langley Porter Institute doing the first work in brain wave bio feedback, I began to think that I could somehow combine physiological information such as EEG, GSR , heart rate etc to get feedback from an audience and couple that with a real time computer musical improvisation program. Of course, at the time, the computer we used had a memory smaller than a one photo on the iPhone and probably had as much computing power as a remote control for a TV but that did not stop me from dreaming.
I continued my interest in using computer for music creation. Sometime around 1990 I joined the board of OpCode Systems a leader in the music software industry. I was a Vice President at Intel at the time and OpCode’s products only ran on the Mac which used the PowerPC microprocessor. This was a bit of a problem but did not keep me from having a Mac in my music studio. I also joined a group call MuSig which was user group focused on Midi that was founded by Glenn Spencer, a music teacher (one of my teachers). Glenn introduced me to Stanley. Stanley and I had a number of conversations. At that time, we at Intel lead by the Intel Architectural Labs was working on a series of technology to turn the PC (remember this was around 1991) in to a multi media platform. My group at Intel (which became Intel Capital) shared this vision and was investing in a number of early stage companies that could help with this. A key part of the strategy was called NSP (for native signal processing). The idea was to use the main CPU instead of dedicated chips (especially DSP’s). In a sense it was a way to sell more powerful microprocessors (made of course by Intel) but it also had the important benefit of making the functionality software based instead of hardcoded. This flexibility proved critical in the development of multimedia capabilities. I can’t remember perfectly, but I must have introduced Stanley to the Labs and also assigned someone to work on making a small investment in his company. The result was one of the first (if not the first) software synth. Andy Grove actually demonstrated Seer synth at Codex in 1994. By 1995, Microsoft was putting major pressure on Intel to stop developing software. I won’t go into it although you can read a bit about it here. Intel caved to Microsoft aggression. Much of the NSP projects were killed including the one with Seer. Seer went off to do a deal with Creative Labs which was the major supplier of sound boards for the PC. I left the board of OpCode around the same time. Glenn died in 1998. That was pretty much the end of my involvment with music technology.
Now I am back on a Mac. I use Garage Band and Logic Express. I am able to do things I could only dream about back in the day. I even have music creation programs on my iPhone.
I can’t figure out how the Obama Health Plan will really fix our medical system.
August 22, 2009 by avram millerI can’t figure out how the Obama Health Plan will really fix our medical system. It just deals with a sub set. It is hard to see how private insurance companies can do much to fix the bulk of these problems. While I hate to think of the govermen taking over health care, I think it may be the only way to deal with all these issues.
Here are the problems I see:
American’s live unhealth life styles (bad diet, lack of exercise, not enough sleep)
Preventative health is not promoted or paid for by insurance companies
The health system is almost medival when it comes to IT
Litigation makes doctors order too many tests
Way to much money is spent in the last year of life
Insurance companies are inefficient and treat customers badly
Way to many people have no insurance
Business pay for most insurance which makes them less competitive
Microsoft needs end of life counseling: Bring on the death panel
August 16, 2009 by avram millerInstalling Windows 7 on a vista computer seems about as easy as passing health care. Check out this column from Walt Mossberg And guess what, there is no way to upgrade from Windows XP.
I am now into my second day trying to upgrade my Vaio Vista notebook to the windows 7 release candidate. I moved about a year ago from the PC to the MAC. Although it has not been an easy transition it has been well worth it. My reasons for doing this can be read on my post 12 steps program to go from the PC to the MAC. Some of my experiences can be heard on a podcast interview on MacCast. So why am I trying to upgrade my Vista computer? Well, it turns out I have a number of things on the computer that are embedded in programs that do not run on the mac. I have quicken and while there is a version on the mac, it is not compatible with its sister program on the PC (kudos to Intuit!). I use Photo Shop Elements on the PC particularly for organizing my photos. The version on the Mac does not have the organizer. I now use iPhoto but it works in a very different way. I sometimes need to go back to Photo Shop Elements to figure out the tagging on my very old scanned photos. I used Family Tree Maker for my genealogy and but it also does not run on the Mac and I want to be able to make sure I have all the info converted. But most importantly, my home AV system and lighting system can only be programed with a PC. However, I cannot work with Vista it drives me crazy and I did not want to downgrade to Windows XP. So my hope was to use Windows 7 to finally get access real access to my Vaio.
I am on my second day (probably three hours of my actual time). I had to upgrade and correct several problems with the Vista installation before it would agree to do the upgrade. That took a day. Now it is actually doing the upgrade.
Well, it is the next morning and Windows 7 is actually running. I just tried to remove a program that is not compatible with Windows 7 and the systems crashed and is shutting down.
Just got it running with remote connection on my Mac which I could never get done with Vista. I can see it is a lot faster than Vista. It will probably be successful for new computers but the upgrade process is very ugly.
Next month I will upgrade my Mac to SnowLeopard and I would guess it will take less than an hour and work the first time.
It is time to pull the plug on grandma-soft.
Are republican pundits more like car salesmen or like computer salesmen?
July 27, 2009 by avram millerAre republican pundits more like car salesmen or like computer salesmen. Back in the day (when I actually had a job), we would joke that the difference between a car salesman and a computer salesman was the the car salesman knew he was lying (not they are both out of a job). I was amazed when a rather smart friend of mine sent the following:
“Page 425 of Health Care Bill – Listen to this interview Fred Thompson’s Radio Show interviewing Betsy McCaughey (pronounced Mc Coy). Or look it up on www.fredthompsonshow.com, under interviews.
On page 425 it says in black and white that EVERYONE on Social Security, (will include all Senior Citizens and SSI people) will go to MANDATORY counseling every 5 years to learn and to choose from ways to end your suffering (and your life). Health care will be denied based on age. 500 Billion will be cut from Seniors healthcare. The only way for that to happen is to drastically cut health care, the oldest and the sickest will be cut first. Paying for your own care will not be an option.
Now, CALL YOUR PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tell them to read page 425 if they don’t read anything else. Surely some of them have parents.”
What a fabrication: Here is what it really says:
“That’s not what HR3200 says. Here’s the short version of what it really says:
The section under question is Section 1233 of HR3200 (the House health care bill) and it is amending subsection s(2) of Section 1861 of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 1395x). Section 1233 of HR3200 adds new sub-paragraph (FF) to the list of what Medicare will pay for as defined in Section 1861 of the Social Security Act.
Section 1233 is saying that Medicare will pay for an “advance care planning consultation” no more often than once every five years unless the patient’s health status changes as a result of certain diagnoses or the patient is admitted to a nursing home, long-term care facility, or hospice. Such a consultation may result in a written directive about care and that directive may include information about such areas as antibiotics and intravenous feeding and hydration as well as the usual DNR instructions and any wishes with regard to facility transfer.
In other words, Section 1233 is creating a new type of “treatment” that will be paid for by Medicare. It will only pay for one such consultation every five years unless the patient’s health status changes, in which case Medicare will pay for a consultation when that change occurs. This is not a mandate; this is a new entitlement. It may not be an entitlement everyone likes but it is still something extra for those on Medicare”.
So when I went to search for more info on this topic I was shocked to find that there were ten times as many bloggers on the right picking up this story and repeating it and embellishing it then there were people trying to set it strieght. It scary because so many people will be wrongfully (and on purpose in my opinion informed). It is like the like that the republican pundits spread that American has the best health care in the world which is total BS unless you are rich. For the average person, America has pretty awful health care and for the poor it has virtually no health care. This garbage from the right is starting to make me sick. Good news for me, I can afford the best.
Blog Guilt
July 11, 2009 by avram millerIt has been a long time since I posted here and for a while I have had a vague sense of guilt about it. Frankly, I do not really know why. I don’t have that many people that read my blog. I think I must feel guilty because I do think that I have something useful to share ever once in a while and also I think it has something to do with feeling a responsibility to myself to express myself. Facebook has had a big effect since it is more transactional and I actually get feedback on my comments and the things I post. I almost never hear back from anyone on my blog posts. Thank God, I have not gotten hooked on Twitter.
There are a few things I would like to write more deeply about:
- The great economic transition that lays ahead due to major depletion of our resources such as oil and water
- Israel
- Music (my music)
I am not ready to write about these topics or other things today but I thought it would be good to check in and write something.
Goodbye Geocities and thanks for everything
April 24, 2009 by avram millerGoodbye Geocities! Yahoo has just announced that it is shutting down Geocities. I wanted to say goodbye. We (Intel Capital) made an early investment in Geocities (maybe 1997). I remember the meeting where I first learned about it. One of the people in my organization invited me to a meeting to discuss Geocities with the venture group that was the main investor in Geocities (about 50%), @venture. @venture was the the VC arm of CMGI. The meeting was attended by the CEO of CMGI, Dave Wetherell, and Peter Mills who headed up @venture. The Geocities concept at the time really took my imagination. The idea was that people would stake out virtual real estate and build a presence there (kind of like Second Life without the avatars. The kind of real estate you owned and its location had different values. Users were called homesteaders. Neighborhoods were created to focus on different topics. It was really the beginning of user created content and social networking. The meeting turned out to be an extremely important one to both Intel and to me personally. Not only did I get very excited about the potential of Geocities and the general concept it represented but I got very excited about @ventures and their various investments. I was particularly impressed with Dave Wetherell and learned that he was able to start @ventures with the money that CMGI had made from being an early investor in what was maybe the first browser company (can’t remember the name) which was sold soon after the investment to AOL. I was extremely impressed with Wetherell’s vision. After that meeting, I got Intel’s agreement to make a significant investment into CMGI (December of 1997). It was the first time we invested in a company that invested in early stage ventures (we always wanted to do that directly). Our agreement provided for Intel to also have the opportunity to co invest with CMGI in early stage companies. I became a board observer (at that time Intel did not want to have board positions in companies we invested in do to perceived legal issues…..they no longer feel that way). Being a board observer with CMGI provided me with a lot of insight in the development of consumer Internet which was my main passion. I played an active role with the company and when I left Intel in April 1999 (ten years ago!), I was asked to join the board of CMGI . That worked out for me pretty well. The company soon had a 40 billion dollar valuation and I was able to sell all my vested shares at the peak. Then the bubble burst and that combined with varrious management issues prevented CMIG from executing the vision that Dave had for the Internet. But it did not work out badly for Intel. Intel sold a major part of its Geocities stock to Yahoo prior and during the acquisition of Geocites by Yahoo for about three billion dollars after the company had first gone public. I guess (can’t remember) that Intel made over a billion dollars in its investments in CMGI and Geocities. Not sure how things worked out for Yahoo after the acquisition. Obviously, it did not work out in the long term but maybe it helped Yahoo develop its stong consumer position which it unfortunately did not maximize these last years.
The story of Geocities is important in looking at companies like Facebook, Twitter, Second Life etc. I also suspect there are going to be a lot of sad people mourning the lost of this very important company.
The effectiveness of PSA Testing
March 20, 2009 by avram millerThere was an interesting editiorial in the NYT today. As a man who was treated for Prostate cancer over 12 years ago, I often said that I had PSA disease. The problem in my opinion is not having PSA tests done. It is what happens after the results come back positive. The PSA test can provide a lot of value in determining if someone has prostate cancer and to a certain extent how aggressive that cancer may be particularly if the PSA is monitored over a period of time. The rate of change of PSA is an important indicator. The problem is that when a PSA is above a certain level (they were using 4.0 when I had my first PSA done at the age of 50 years), the next step is often a Biopsy to determine if there is cancer and to grade the Cancer. This is where the problem really comes into play. If cancer is detected (and the older you are the better chance that you will have some amount of prostate cancer), the next step is for the doctor to recommend ways for you to treat it. Top of the list is surgery followed by radiation of some time. My doctors do not really treat the possibility of what is called “watchful waiting” especially if you are young. Doctors do not want to take the chance that you, their patient, may be one of the people that have an aggressive form of the disease. The idea is that if the cancer is found early and the prostate removed or totally cooked with radiation, then you can no longer get prostate cancer. But even that is not always true. There is not just one kind of prostate cancer. Many prostate cancers grow very slowly and many never spread beyond the prostate (it has to do that to become dangerous). Frankly, I wish I never had treated my prostate cancer (I had radiation) but watched and waited (by monitoring the PSA and maybe having a biopsy ever few years) but at the age of 51 no doctor would have recommended that approach.
The good news is that i am pretty sure within ten years we will be able to determine of a man has an aggressive form of the disease or one that can be left alone which would be most cases. I also think we will find ways to deal more effectively with advanced prostate cancer which will mean that the cost of taking the risk will be reduced.
