February 7, 2010 by avram miller
I have been waiting for the iPad announcement for sometime. The wait was good because it allowed me to use my imagination thinking about what it might be. As my readers know, I have been working with computers since 1966 and for many years, I was able to even had some non trivial effect on the development of the PC industry particularly with respect to the development of residential broadband. I had a vision of the connected PC becoming a new medium for entertainment, education and communication and commerce. It pretty much played out as I thought, spoke and wrote about in the 90s. Wireless technologies were just beginning to make themselves felt when I left my position as Vice President of Business Development at Intel Corp. in April of 1999. I had one of the first Blackberries and installed one of the first wifi networks at the World Headquarters of The Avram Miller Company (me and three assistance). At that time, I thought that the PC and MAC would move into the entertainment center of homes. But things did not play out as I thought. I mean I could personally build a home media center but both the cost and more importantly the complexity made the development of the PC based home media center out of the reach of most consumers. And of course, Microsoft was not really the company to lead this development. My former company, Intel, lacked both the vision and the ability to do much (even thought it was pretty much mission critical for Intel in my opinion). Apple would not try to do much in this area because given the complexity issues and the need to deal with cable companies etc, they would not be able to deliver on their brand promise. It was a good decision for Apple.
In the meantime, we had move and more of the computer applications moving to the Cloud. I became convinced that we would ended with a number of devices in the home that connected to each other via the internet. Last year, I got an iPod and also moved from the PC to the Mac. I could no longer take all the problems I got using Microsoft software. Now I am Microsoft free. But I did not expect to have a trans-formative experience using the iPhone. I thought that the iPhone would be a utilitarian product for me. It would be used to keep my calendar, address book and deal with email as well as phone communications. And yes, it would be my iPod but I was not that much into using an iPod type device. Instead, I found that it was a major form of entertainment. Even with the small screen, I would watch TV shows, movies etc when I traveled. And I loved the intimacy of the touch screen. I began to realize that this was indeed personal computing and that the subjective relationship between myself and this piece of equipment was different than I had with a notebook or desktop computer. My iPhone also started becoming my controller for things like the lighting in my home and the control of my AV system. I noticed that I cared my iPhone with me all the time.
So when I began to hear the rumors of an iPad, I realized that this might be the device that would really transform entertainment. In the 90s I was found of saying that the PC was the Black Hole of Technology. That anything that came close to the PC (like word processors) would fall into the PC and become part of the PC. The iPhone and devices like it has become the black hole of the pocket or purse and are sucking functionality into it like camera, phone, utilities etc. So would the iPad become the black hole for media? I think it can be. I beleive the exerience of watching entertainment with a device that you can hold but more importantly that you can touch will change the perspective on the entertainment experience in very powerful ways.
But I was also disappointment in some of the specs of the iPad and wonder if Apple is making trade offs that are based on getting the product out at the right price and more importantly at the right quality or are they based on business strategies that limit the iPad to benefit other Apple products. For instance the lack of a face forward camera means it can not be used for video conferencing. But I think that is a very important capability for this product. I want to be able to communicate with my kids and grand kids that way as I do now on my mac book pro (or mac book air when I travel). I also think that video communications will be important in playing network based games or even sharing entertainment experiences with friends. I am very interested in the book reading experience. I use a Kindle all the time and love it. I was disappointed that there was no real GPS capability.
I think the iPad will be a great product for seniors like my father who will soon be 87 and has some difficulty dealing with his PC. But unfortunately, you have to have a PC or Mac if you have an iPad so you can run iTunes making things more complicated. I hope there is a work around for this.
Anyway, I can’t wait to get my iPad. Not sure if I will wait for the 3G model.
Posted in Avram's Past, Technology, Thoughts about the Media Industry | Leave a Comment »
February 4, 2010 by avram miller
Just read an article about how unrelevant Microsoft has become. I thought the article made some good points. I certainly understand what the author experienced. I saw that kind of thing first hand when I worked at Digital Equipment Corp. in the early 80s. That that time DEC (as we called it then) was the number two computer company in the world. Eventually it was bought by Compaq a company that did not even exist until about 1982 and which is now part of HP which is the only company that managed the transition from Mini Computers to Personal Computers.
I could not help but to think of those years when Microsoft and Intel were king of the hill. For many years I attended the quarterly meeting of the top executives of both companies. We certainly thought we were masters of the universe (well at least the CEO’s did) . Of course there was the senior Master (Microsoft) and the Junior Master (Intel).
But there was a big problem in the relationship and that is what is now playing out for Microsoft. Since Microsoft was in the software business it, it could make much more money by upgrading its installed base. But that meant making sure things were compatible over a number of generations of hardware products. The skill the Microsoft developed was how to keep people locked in and forcing them to upgrade. They generated amazing profits with this strategy.
Apple did the same thing but also was able to innovate. But since they were also in the hardware business they had an incenstive to make customers upgrade the hardware and the software which let them move forward. They also have very different CEOs. One company had a CEO that wanted to create insanely great products and make money doing that. The other had a CEO that wanted to make insanely great money and make products doing that.
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January 17, 2010 by avram miller
Abraham Lincoln said in his famous Gettysburg Address ,” Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”. Well I am afraid he may have been wrong. We may be in the beginning of a second civil war. Part of our government (congress) has been slowly taken over by people who will sell out our country for their own personal gain. While this time it is not north versus south it, like the civil war, it has a lot to do with economics and holding down some people so that other people will get more than their fair share. Least, I be misunderstood, I am a capitalist. But what we have now layered on top of our capitalist system is something I term “curuptionalist”. And it appears that congress, especially the Senate is willing to distroy the future of our country just to maintain the ability to stay in office. That is why I have suggested term limits in past posts.
But I have given a lot of thought to how we can have a more representative government. Here is my idea: We now have the technology to vote directly on any issue. Most of us can use the Internet and even more people can use cell phones and text. But the problem with having everyone vote directly is that we don’t have the time or even the knowledge on most subjects. That is where the Proxy comes in. We can give our vote on a topic or specific bill to a Proxy. The Proxies are subject matter experts. For instance, you could give your vote on matter’s to do with Climate Change to Tom Friedman if you felt he would represent your point of view. Anyone not serving in branch of government could become a Proxy. Proxies could require a small donation for them to represent you or not. It would depend on their circumstances. It would be up to the Proxies to market themselves to voters but virial marketing will work well. The whole system would be run by a non profit organization, called ByThePeople. that would be established with a clear mandate to just administer the process but not take a position on anything else. All this would be set up outside of our existing governmental and election structure. Then a new party would be created called the Proxy Party. Candidates of this party would agree that they would vote with the majority of Proxies on any one bill. ByThePeople, would operate the system that would provide the elected individuals with the results of the Proxies. Proxies would also provide points of view on what should be in bills etc. Eventually, we will even be able to change some of the senate rules etc. Members of the existing parties can also sign up to follow the Proxy vote.
OK, I know there are a lot of details to be developed. And maybe this concept does not really work. But we certainly have the technology to make it happen. If any of you have better ideas, please comment. We need to take back our country. We need to care about our future and the future of our children and grandchildren.
Posted in Political Views | Leave a Comment »
January 14, 2010 by avram miller
Rob Glaser steps down. I have known Rob since in 1992 when we was leading Microsoft’s multimedia business and I was VP of business development at Intel and tasked amongst other things with working with Microsoft and Rob to develop a number of consumer initiatives. One of these was the interactive set top box which still has not really happened but that project ultimately lead to the the development of the cable modem albeit without Microsoft participation. I was sorry when Microsoft removed Rob from his position but it ended up being a great thing for Rob who ended up leaving Microsoft and starting Real Networks. I found Rob very smart, articulate and driven but not an easy man to work with. I learned a lot from him in those early days of the Internet. Rob has also been a carrying and responsible person that has contributed much through charity and political work.
What ever you think of Real Networks (I love using its Rhapsody service myself) and what ever you think of Rob, we owe him much as one of the true pioneers of the Internet. Rob was one of the few (I count myself in this small list) that in the early 90’s understood the power of the Internet and how it would transform traditional media. Thanks Rob.
Posted in New Media, broadband | Leave a Comment »
January 12, 2010 by avram miller
Just read a very good op ed by David Brooks which you can read here. When I was in Israel in May, I was blown away the developments in every area from technology to art. I lived in Israel in the 70s and was one of the first to develop a technology based export business. While I have been back many times, these are different times for Israel. Much of this is due to the increased sense of security that is the the result of the walls built around the border areas. While these walls are there to protect Israel from terrorists (and they have been effective at that) they are a symbol of all that is wrong in the middle east. For not only do they protect Israel but the isolate the Arab countries from all that Israel could have contributed to their development. Israel no longer sees itself as part of the middle east. It is a developed country dealing with other developed countries. Walking around in Tel Aviv is like walking around in parts of LA or Palo Alto. But of course, Israel is located in the middle east. There is no real escape from that. In the meantime I plan to spend many weeks in Tel Aviv this year, proud to be a Jew in a Jewish country and maybe dream a bit about a day when there will be no wall.
Tags: Israel
Posted in Israel | Leave a Comment »
January 8, 2010 by avram miller
We have a misconception of what the insurance companies job is. There are two reasons for insurance companies to exist in the current scheme of things. The first reason is to aggregate risk. That is to share risk amongst a large number of people. This is similar to car insurance or fire insurance. The second reason is to negotiate with providers for reduced rate that means to represent their members. It is reasonable that a company doing this should be able to charge a mark up to cover reasonable costs and profit. The problem is that do to lack of proper regulation the exemption from the anti monopoly laws, insurance companies have decided that their real service is to provide profits to their owners.
I should say that the idea that everyone pay the same amount does not make sense just as charging driver the same for car insurance without taking into consideration their driving record does not make sense. That means that the insurance companies are have to decide what is fair to the other members. But they have distored this role to help them obtain better profits. They also have to decide what is reasonable medical care under the insurance otherwise some members might abuse the insurance and spend much more than needed. But frankly, I hate to see a profit based business making these decisions.
To make matter’s even more complicated, we all of an interest in each other’s well fair. People who are ill cost all of us money in reduced productivity, use of other services etc.
It appears that our government thinks they can improve things by adding some additional regulations. I doubt that will work. I believe the concept of medical insurance is a bad idea in these times.
I believe that we need a single payer system even with all the problems that will bring that is not tied to profit making. We need to do the following:
- Establish a single payer system (by slowly increasing those that can be on Medicare)
- Abolish the employer based medical insurance structure which will improve the competativness of our industries
- Provide a tax credit to every family to cover the amount presently needed to provide reasonable health insurance. This money will not have to be used for health insurance. The government will pay for all costs above this for on a reasonable basis (difficult topic which needs more work).
- The government must invest substantially more in medical research (take the money from defense since we have the larges force in the world by a factor of twenty and one of the worse health outcomes of any developed country).
- The government must invest in education and other actions that can effect life style
Posted in Government, Health Care, Health and Fitness | 1 Comment »
January 3, 2010 by avram miller
I just listened to a really interesting Podcast from Scientific America. It was about the Neanderthals. It was fascinating to me. I guess we have learned so much about the people in the last few years do to our ability to sequence their genes which was done just last year. We now know that the Neanderthal was not a sub set of Homo Sapiens but rather broke off from a common ancestor as early as a million years ago. Neanderthals left Africa much earlier than our ancestors. The were there about 600,000 years ago while our ancestors left only about 60,000 years ago. Neanderthals and our ancestors could not intermix in that they could not produced children together. Who knows if under certain circumstances they had sex although they probably were not that attactrive to each other. Neaderthals lived until about 30,000 years ago. They probably went extent because of changes in weather (ice age stuff) and perhaps competition with our ancestors who were in the more southern parts of Europe and Asia at the time. While the Neanderthals had brains as large or even larger than ours, and their tools (technologogy) was not as sufficicated as ours. For instance, our ancestors had niddles and could sow clothes together while the Neaderthals could only fasen clothing together. They probably had some form of language. It is interesting to imagine what would have happened if they had survived. Would we have lived side by side with them? Would parts of the world be dominated by Neanderthals? Or would they have eventually driven us to extentsion?
And a final thought, it is pretty clear that intelligent life as represented by Homo Sapiens is not unique to just us.
Posted in Genealogy, Genetics | Leave a Comment »
December 28, 2009 by avram miller
I have been pretty negative for some time about our government. I think congress is disgusting and self serving. I think the Obama administration is a great disappointment. We need leadership. So here I am with my own program to save America.
Health Care
- We need to focus on prevention and early detection of disease. This means increase research, education about changing life styles and appropriate medical testing.
- The amount of money spent in the last year of life needs to be decreased. A great deal of this money is wasted on taking care of patients that hardly know they are alive. The money could be better spent on prevention and early detection so that the last year of life would happen several years later (longer life expectancy).
- Must phase into a single payer system. The best way to accomplish this is to decrease the age of medicare by two years each year. In ten years the age will be 45. At that point every one should be eligible. Only a single payer system can balance the long term with the short term. Insurance companies have no incentive since they do not know how long they will have a particular member.
- Move from an employer based system. One of the benefit of an employer based system is that it creates a large group of people with different medical conditions, ages and sex. This can be accomplished in other ways. The employer based system creates an economic disadvantage to companies since the cost of these plans are high and many non American companies do not have to carry this burden. These programs tend to isolate consumers from the real cost. The tax deductions companies get without the consumers taxed on the benefits means that the government is paying a significant amount of the medical insurance cost without being able to influence how this money is spent. The government should provide a tax credit for medical costs and a deduction on medical cost above the value of the tax credit which can be capped.
- Reform the legal system and change the laws on mal-practice suits. Remove the anti-monopoly exception for insurance companies
- Improve the IT in health care. Standards for consumer health data bases should be established which provide for inter-operability and sharing of data bases. All medical institutions should be required to use approved health care software
- Consumer Pricing Information. Methods should be developed so that consumers can get access to both pricing and performance of organizations such as testing facilities (like MRI’s). Transparency is required.
Energy
- We need a tax on energy especially gasoline. We should set a floor and then increase the floor in determined and known way. The money resulting from this tax can be given back to tax payers as a credit. They can decide to use it for energy or something else.
- We need a mass works program to develop alternative energy sources.
- We need to create mass transport and provide incentives for people to use this transport.
- All other methods of conservation should be encouraged.
War on Terrorism
- Reduce direct spending and take money saved and use it to create economic development in key countries like Palestine.
- Understand that the US wars in Islamic countries only help recruit terrorists.
- Work with Muslim leaders to help turn the tide of thinking.
Employment
- Establish two years of national service after high school for all Americans. These years can be used in a number of ways from support of public programs, to peace corp. or even armed service. This will take the 18 and 19 year old’s out of the work force. It will give them valuable skills.
- Establish optional two years of national service for adults between the age of 60 and 70.
Posted in Policy, Political Views | 3 Comments »
December 24, 2009 by avram miller
The Senate passed the Insurance Industry Protection Act. Glad to know that our insurance industry will be healthy. Now can we start to deal with how to make Americans healthy? And hopefully that can be done without effecting the health of the insurance companies otherwise, it will not happen. After all when the press counts the dead and maimed bodies resulting from the lack of insurance they do not count the number of died or maimed resulting from poor disease prevention, bad diet, lack of exercise etc.- such things have no corporate sponsors (well maybe Nike, I don’t know). Of course, congress just proved that you can be sick and still function if your primary job is your own personal survival.
Americans are very confused. Our problem is not really the insurance companies other than their ability to pay off politicians. Our problem is that health care in the USA is way too expensive and is not effective in preventing disease. The employer basis system of group insurance isolates employees from the true cost. Not taxing health care benefits means that the USA government is paying a large part of the bill for health care but has little influence. Medical malpractice suits causes doctors to order tests that are not required. So much money is wasted on the last year of life. If that money had been spend on medical research and prevention that last year could happen many years in the future.
The way our government has handled the health care issue is a demonstration of how ineffective and corrupt our government has become. It is very sad to say the least.
We need a single payer system because only that way there will be a true economic interest in dealing with the real problems of health care. Insurance companies have no long term interest in our health.
Posted in Health and Fitness, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
October 15, 2009 by avram miller
I am about to turn 65 (Jan. 27th). I plan to be on the beach in Rio that day. But it is also the day I become eligible for Medicare. A year after, I start collecting social security. And then what? As I have discussed before, what is there to look forward to after that. You now get all the perks of being a senior citizen which includes discounts (and getting carded again). And finally I have discovered it. It is having cataract surgery. I just spoke to an old friend that I found on Facebook. She is 89 years old and sounds like she is forty. She told me that she is still able to drive, take yoga and do pretty much anything she wants to do. And then she told me the good news. She had Cataract Surgery and now her eye sight is 20/20. I have been wearing glasses since I was eight years old and the idea of not having to wear them is very exciting to me especially when I think of being out on the beach in Rio.
Tags: social media for seniors
Posted in About life in the last third, Social Media, You know you are old when | 1 Comment »
