In the last few years, the situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically and positively for Israel. The Arab Spring has weakened Israel’s neighbors such as Egypt. The Syrian situation and the belligerence of Iran has actually strengthened Israel and made it much more powerful and influential in the region. Israel’s demonstration of the effectiveness of its anti-missile program, together with its success in Cyberwar fare, make it much more difficult for Iran to threaten Israel – this is generally recognized. The change in the USAs domestic energy production has made it much less dependent on oil from the region and less concern about disruptions there. In the mean time, Israel has discovered massive gas reserves off its coast. The Palestinians have a weak and divided government and almost no one cares what happens to them. Israel continues to become stronger economically and militarily, but realizes that there has to be solution for the occupied territories although it does not really want a two state solution anymore. The behavior of Hamas after Israel left Gaza has killed that idea once and for all.
Neighbors in Chaos
I believe the situation in Syria will be the catalyst for what is about to happen. Syria borders Lebanon Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey. It is the last three that really matter. And as you will see, it is Jordan that will play the most important role. But lets start with Turkey. Netanyahu just apologized to the prime minister of Turkey. Obama was standing at his side. Does anyone think that is a coincidence? Turkey, is a member of Nato with a very strong military. It is already dealing with the effects of the civil war in Syria with hundreds of thousands of refugees. Turkey has a major problem with the Kurds in its country. They want to create a Kurdish State. The part of Iraq that boarders Syria is Kurdish and only loosely under the control of the Iraqi shiite-dominated government. The rich oil fields of Iraq are in the Kurdish areas. Turkey together with other members of Nato with the help US airpower will occupy Syria. Jordan, is very concerned with the problems of Syria spilling over into Jordan. There is already a major refugee problem and unlike Turkey, Jordan is a small and economically weak country. So they are very concerned about the Syrian situation and would welcome Turkey and Nato’s actions. They are also concerned about the Palestinians who are a large minority in Jordan, and at one time, tried to overthrow the Hashemite kingdom. Egypt does not have much of a role in all this but would be given some additional aid which they will be desperate for.
The Two State Solution will not Happen
Israel does not want a two state solution. Not only are there concerns with the security problems this would create, but they don’t believe that Palestine would be economically viable on its own. Israel would like Jordan to take back the West Bank in some way. It could be a loose federation where the responsibility for security could be controlled by the Jordanian Government whom the Israeli’s trust. To get that to happen, the USA would have to provide very significant economic development dollars to Jordan for both the east and west sides of the Jordan River. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank would become part of Greater Jordan. But under agreement with Israel, the settlers would continue to be citizens of Israel. Settlements could continue to grow but there would be no new Settlements. Israeli’s would be free to live in Jordan and own property and businesses there. Palestinians will not be happy with this situation because they want their own country, but they will not get their own country. Once this solution is imposed, economic development in Palestine would be significant, and Palestinians will begin to see the benefits.
So where does that leave Gaza? Gaza does not make any sense. It is a very small place which is pretty much a slum with massive unemployment. Incentives would have to be given to have the people of Gaza move to the West Bank. Gaza would remain but it would become a small port to deal with the import and export of goods from what would now be Greater Palestine. Israel would provide a secure highway between the West Bank and Gaza. Now Jordan would have ports on both the red sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
Without Syria’s support and a weakened Iran, the terrorist organization, Hezbollah, will see their power in Lebanon reduced. Incentives can be provided to renew Lebanon and a treaty with Israel will significantly increase tourism in the area as tourists would now be able to visit Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Egypt.
Iran Weakened and Isolated
Iran continues to be weakened by sanctions. It has no real friends. It realizes that without atomic weapons, it has no real power which is why it continues to develop this capability. Iran cannot successfully attack Israel with conventional weapons. Israel would be able to defend itself with its missile shield and then be able to attack Iran without turning the world against it. Israel has most likely infiltrated the computer systems and the defense systems of Iran already. I would not be surprised if a missile shot by Iran at Israel did not find itself redirected to Tehran. But Israel, the USA and the other players in the region cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear capability. The USA will try what ever it can do to prevent this, but if it cannot, it will distroy Iran’s capabilities. This will only be a set back but at least it will provide for a next round.
Now, the only thing I have to worry about is the FBI trying to figure out how I knew about Obama’s secret plan.
Your analysis is logical, but perhaps too sensible for a region out of control. In addition, Gaza will be rife with terrorists for a long time to come.
I hope that I’m wrong!
As MLK would said, “You had a dream…” 😉
I agree with you about the Two State Solution that will never happen.
But for Gaza, I think Israel would like Egypt to take it back (like Jordan taking back the West Bank).
Globally your post is the most optimistic vision for Israel that I read for a long time. It’s a real feel good reading.
Do not worry for the FBI, the Mossad is behind you… 😉
Barack should seriously consider creating a new cabinet position for you.
Have you sent this to Netanyahu & the King of Jordan? They are more likely to take this seriously than the White House. Please don’t drop it – this could be the most important thing you ever do.
I wonder how you rethink about this today. Iran is very strong now and getting stronger. But they are much more moderate than you think. The surface and big talk “death to Israel” is IRONIC. The Israeli perspective is narrow-minded, even silly. Its fearful and selfish and childish. The Saudis (Sunnis) are the true Mid-East evil. Afganhistan, ISIS, 9/11 and 90% of global militant wahabbist islam is Saudi funded. By reestablishing the balance of power between Shiites and Sunnis… Israel is now longer the enemy! Sunni and Shiites now have each other to love (or hate!). They get to finally grow up, and learn. Obama is playing chess and you were playing checkers here above. Are you still playing checkers (with Netanyahu)?