{"id":1245,"date":"2013-05-19T19:08:34","date_gmt":"2013-05-20T02:08:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/?p=1245"},"modified":"2013-05-19T19:08:34","modified_gmt":"2013-05-20T02:08:34","slug":"the-resurrection-of-wintel-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/2013\/05\/19\/the-resurrection-of-wintel-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"The Resurrection of Wintel Part 1."},"content":{"rendered":"

I never imagined I would be writing this post. \u00a0I was planing on writing what I thought would be my last post about Intel. It was to deal with the departure of Paul Otellini the former CEO \u00a0and a recent article<\/a> about him published by the Atlantic. \u00a0I will do an abbreviated comment on that and then begin to get into the meat \u00a0of the Wintel Resurrection.<\/p>\n

Paul Otellini Regrets<\/strong><\/div>\n
The Atlantic Monthly had a major article on the retirement of Paul Otellini\u00a0the former CEO of Intel. Frankly, I think the article was very kind to Paul. Paul probably did a very good job of being the caretaker of the strategy that his predecessors Barrett and Grove had established. \u00a0We called that, The PC is iT strategy.<\/em> \u00a0But the world changed from the 90s when we realized the power of the PC and Intel did not change. \u00a0While \u00a0Intel’s business grew significantly, it stock price pretty much stayed flat during Paul’s eight years as CEO. \u00a0Wall street evidently felt that Intel was not in a position to take advantage of the growth of the Internet and especially of new devices such as the iPhone and they have been largely correct in that assessment. \u00a0Paul showed no leadership in this area which is a bit strange since he served on the board of Google since 2004. \u00a0He of course profited from the options he received as a board member. \u00a0Too bad he did not influence Google to consider quality control as an important attribute of a successful company.<\/div>\n
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I should probably say that for many years, I considered Paul a friend. \u00a0We first met up when he was the Technical Assistant to Andy Grove. \u00a0This was a very important position in terms of advancement in the company because it provided the opportunity to learn how the CEO actually operated. But most of the work really had to do with creating presentations. \u00a0Paul would refer to himself as “Andy’s foil slave” (this was before powerpoint and we used overhead projectors). \u00a0Paul and I would often have lunch together. \u00a0My personal experience with Paul until I left Intel was very good. He is really a nice person, fair and dedicated. But was not a risk taker at a time when risks were needed. \u00a0I still like him and feel bit bad about making a few negative comments about Pau over the years. \u00a0I hope now that he has left Intel he will use his skills and significant wealth to make the world a better place.<\/div>\n
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So in the article, Paul laments about not getting the design win for the iPhone. \u00a0According to the article Intel lost the order because of price. \u00a0Frankly, while price may have something to do with it, power requirements may have also played a role. \u00a0Paul says that his gut told him that Intel should do what ever it took to get the design win but the data argued the opposite. \u00a0Intel believed that \u00a0the market for smart phones was about 1\/1,000th of its current size. \u00a0Had they gotten the “Design Win”<\/em>, they would have been able to ramp up their manufacturing capability to the point that they could have made money on the chips but maybe not “PC money” which continues to be Intel’s problem in pursuing \u00a0new markets.<\/div>\n
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I know first hand what Paul is saying. In my early years at Intel, I would get beaten down with “data”. \u00a0I learned never to say “my gut tells me we should do this” even though it was my intuition that drove me. \u00a0After a while, I would make up data and\/or get reports at major newspapers to say what I could not say at Intel and then I could reference their reports. \u00a0Paul’s background was in Finance and Sales. My background was more in technology, marketing and science. \u00a0During Paul’s tenure, the few intuitive people left or were driven out. \u00a0Now they have a CEO who came from manufacturing. \u00a0Paul was worked for Intel for 40 years. \u00a0The new CEO\u00a0Brian Krzanich joined Intel in 1982 and worked in manufacturing until he became COO in 2012. His first job at Intel was in Process Control. In that position he was responsible for making sure nothing changed. \u00a0How about that for a visionary CEO? \u00a0This last remark may not be fair since I never meet Kranich even though he was at the company the whole time I worked there.<\/div>\n
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I spoke about the importance of intuition to FastCompany Magazine in 1999. \u00a0Here is some of the things I said that might have changed Intel had Paul read and acted on the article.<\/div>\n
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“Today, when Intel builds a new factory, it’s investing $2 billion in products it hasn’t yet designed for markets that don’t yet exist. This is hard for American businessmen, and I say “men” because in order to do this, you have to give up control — and giving up control makes guys really miserable. Control is an illusion. I don’t think that it ever existed, but now even the illusion is gone. As a result, we’re experiencing the rebirth of intuition.<\/h3>\n

In our society, we often don’t want to admit that we know something if we don’t know why we know it. At Intel, I used to have a horrible problem. I’d go into a meeting, and I’d be very convinced about something, and people would say, “What evidence do you have for it?” And I’d say, “I don’t have any evidence.” They’d expect me to be analytical about it, and I wouldn’t be. Over the years, I learned to make up some bullshit story to convince them, but it had nothing to do with why I thought it would work. I just knew.<\/h3>\n

In Hollywood, you’re expected to be intuitive. In the entertainment industry, you have people who have intuition and people who imitate. Nobody there analyzes. But for the most part, in our society, if you know and you don’t know why you know, then obviously whatever you know doesn’t matter — which is stupid. If you have been right about things for 20 years, then you should be able to say, “I don’t know why I know, but I know.” If I’m hiring people, I don’t want to know how they know, I just want to know that they have a good record of being right.<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

So I had pretty much written off Intel until yesterday. \u00a0Yesterday, I went for a walk with a former colleague at Intel who is both a mentor and friend to me. \u00a0We spoke of Intel, Apple, Google and Microsoft. \u00a0Out that conversation came the rest of this blog post.<\/p>\n

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The resurrection of Wintel<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
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The death of Wintel<\/strong><\/div>\n
For over ten years, Intel and Microsoft have been drifting. \u00a0While their revenues increase, their stock prices stayed flat. \u00a0It seemed that both companies had missed the next generation of the internet. \u00a0With the exception of the Xbox, both companies revenues came from the PC industry. \u00a0The \u00a0Informal” \u00a0alliance that Microsoft and Intel had \u00a0which the Industry called by the somewhat derisive term, “Wintel” \u00a0was no more. \u00a0It had become irreverent and especially after Intel embraced \u00a0Apple and went from being Microsoft bitch to being Apple’s bitch. \u00a0But both companies are still incredibly strong. \u00a0 Both have significant cash, Microsoft way more than Intel, and technical resources. \u00a0What they have been missing is a strategy.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
For Wintel to resurrect, the world of computing has to change once again and in ways that create disadvantages for companies such as Apple and Google and advantages for Intel and Microsoft. \u00a0I will explore that next.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
I should also say that I am not impressed with Larry\/ Sergy or Mark (does using their first name make me hip?). \u00a0Google may be more mediocre than Microsoft ever was. \u00a0Facebook is the DOS of social networks. \u00a0But these are the guys who got started on the new cycle while the old guys tried to keep the old cycle going (always a losing strategy). \u00a0Jeff Bezos is the only one that has made the transition. \u00a0I think he is brilliant, but thankfully I never had to work with him.<\/div>\n
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Multiple Devices meet Multiple Clouds<\/strong><\/div>\n
We are going through a major transition in personal computing (I did not say personal computers). \u00a0Many of us have multiple devices- a smart phone, a tablet, desktops or notebooks, game machines, and DVRs etc. \u00a0We are also begining to see what is called the internet of things which really means special purpose devices like lights, appliances, autos, etc that communicate with us and other systems via the internet \u00a0This has necessitated the movement to the cloud which in a way creates a hierarchical architecture. \u00a0It is just too hard for each device to communicate directly with each device so rather, we have devices communicating with the cloud and an synchronizing with data that way. \u00a0But there is not just one cloud there is a storm. \u00a0Apple has one, Google has one, Microsoft has one just to name a few.<\/div>\n
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Capabilities are increasing dramatically but so is complexity. \u00a0 Application development is also increasing in complexity to deal with multiple eco systems. \u00a0The power of “The PC is It” was that there was a homogenious environment for developers and users. \u00a0It also had it inherent problems. Microsoft tried to develop an operating system that could scale from the smallest device to the largest computer. \u00a0It was a very difficult task and they failed at it a number of times. \u00a0The only thing that is harder is to try to support multiple operating systems. Apple is struggling with that with OSX and iOS.<\/div>\n
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This model of computing has a very limited life span. \u00a0In my next blog, I will discuss what I think might be the next generation of computing and why it is even possible that it will be lead by Wintel.<\/div>\n
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To be Continued<\/strong><\/div>\n
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I never imagined I would be writing this post. I was planing on writing what I thought would be my last post about Intel. It was to deal with the departure of Paul Otellini the former CEO and a recent article about him published by the Atlantic. I will do an abbreviated comment on that and then begin to get into the meat of the Wintel Resurrection.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":607219,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[536874,666813,12068,6,538800],"tags":[791020630,791020627,791020640,791020632,4011432,277114],"class_list":["post-1245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-about-business","category-avrams-past","category-intel","category-technology","category-the-post-pc-period","tag-apple","tag-google","tag-intel","tag-microsoft","tag-paul-otellini","tag-wintel"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2v2x-k5","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/607219"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1245"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1248,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245\/revisions\/1248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/twothirdsdone.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}