Of course, everyone is talking about the Iran Nuclear Deal especially here in Israel where I am living at the moment. This a place where a national pastime is asking the question “Is this good for the Jews or bad for the Jews?” This question comes up not only in the context of a political discussion, but it could be asked about the restart of the Hadron Collider or the introduction of a new Apple TV.
I am not going to discuss the deal per se. Frankly, I don’t know how I feel about it. One minute, I think it is a good deal and then the next, I think it is a bad deal. I think Obama does not understand the middle east and is a fool, but then I think he is brave and wants to stop the continued American War in the region which has done nothing to secure peace for anyone.
So I will share with you a few of the random thoughts that might pass for wisdom if one ignored the source (me).
The Bull(y)
Iran does not need a lot of atomic weapons to fire at Israel unless they really do have a mission to finish Hitler’s business. All they have to do is test one atomic weapon and everyone in Israel with a foreign passport, especially those that have young children, would be lining up at Ben Gurion Airport. Yes, Israel has atomic weapons and the ability to destroy Iran in retaliation for the destruction of Israel but that does not make people feel safe because Israelis fear that the Iranian leadership is not rational.
I would guess that Iran already has a few atomic weapons which they acquired from our friends, the Pakistanis or maybe from North Korea. They have the missile capability to reach Israel. Sure, Israel might be able to stop a missile but these missiles are not like the sling shots that Hamas uses. Who would take a chance? The reason I think that Iran has been building up their capabilities is not to threaten Israel, but to become the biggest bully in the region.
Iran moves to Plan B
The sanctions really were hurting Iran which is the only reason they came to the table. But getting rid of the sanctions in return for stopping their march towards obtaining atomic weapons, does not strengthen them in the region. That is where Plan B come into effect. Iran will use the gain in its economic power resulting from the end of sanctions, to make mischief all over the region. They will accomplish this by funding and equipping Shite terrorist groups like Hezbollah or the Houthi Rebels in Yemen. There will be turmoil all over the middle east and North Africa. Eventually, it will make its way into Saudi Arabia and could affect the Saudi’s ability to produce oil. This could eventually have the blessed effect of boosting Oil prices for the Iranians and their secret backer, Russia (more about this later).
Of course, they will go after Israel using Hezbollah whom they have already equipped with tens of thousands of missiles. If Hezbollah attacks Israel in a way that really damages the country by killing off thousands of civilians and closing the airport, Israel will wipe them off the face of the earth. They will not have enough body parts left to enjoy their 72 virgins. But Iran will not care much, after all, they are only Arabs and not Persians.
Netanyahu and the blessings of ISIS
Is ISIS good for the Jews or bad for the Jews? That answer as cynical as it sounds is, that ISIS is good. I am not going to explain everything to you so use your own imagination. It was Menachem Begin that said, “when your enemies are fighting, wish them both success”.
Master Putin and his magic carpet
As I mentioned, a few countries would benefit from Saudi Arabia in Turmoil. Russia, significantly, would benefit the most. And anyway, this kind of things is right up Putin’s alley. So guess where the excess Iranian nuclear material is to be stored?
The Solution: Sex, drugs and Rock and Roll
Clearly there is only one solution and that is a change in the Iranian regime and the introduction of Western Values. That would be so wonderful. The Iranian people are great and they know how to party. It was in Iran where I learned to drink ice cold Vodka and eat caviar by the pound. I spent time there in the 1970s and hope to go back someday. But how can this be accomplished? If I were running Israel, I would be ramping up a program to make this happen. What choice does Israel have? Microdrones anyone?
Obama’s Real War
Now Obama must deal with Congress. This may prove more difficult than negotiating with the Iranians. Right now, I think it is 50/50 that the deal will be approved by congress. They will have to pass a law to prevent it and have a veto-proof majority which means that finally we will have a bipartisan bill.
As I said at the beginning of this post, I don’t know if this is a bad good deal or a good bad deal. I would guess that Obama does not really know himself. But given his limited time in office, we will probably not find out before he goes. I bet Obama has a calendar somewhere where he checks off the days remaining for him in Office.