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Pensieri e esperienze di un’anatra selvaggia di ottanta e un anni.

Avram Miller by the sea
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587 post pubblicati dal 2006

Tag: Two State Solution

  • The War in Gaza has taught me how wrong I was about so much

    Like so many Israelis, I was full of hubris. Having moved to Israel in 2017, living in the heart of Tel Aviv, I experienced with pride the power of the start-up nation. I would brag to people that Tel Aviv was one of the safest cities in the world. Of course, I knew that more than two million Palestinians were living in Gaza, just 45 minutes from my home, but like so many Israelis, it was “out of sight and out of mind.”.

    Yes, every few years, there would be a mini-war, which included rockets being launched at cities in Israel, mainly in the south near Gaza but sometimes at Tel Aviv. But we had the Iron Dome. I would joke that the shelter in our home came equipped with wifi and vodka (it did) because I knew the probability of being hit by a dumb iron tube was less than being in an auto accident on the way to the airport.

    When I thought about the Palestinians, I thought about the West Bank. It was an area I would often see if we drove to the north of Israel or even if we went to Jerusalem for a visit. I also knew the West Bank well from the first time I lived in Israel (1974-1979) because there was no border, and we could quickly drive there. I last visited the West Bank in 2015 before immigrating a second time to Israel.

    While I wished for a two-state solution, I had given up on the idea. I saw no way that Israel would accept a state so close to its significant cities and just 12 miles from its major airport, Ben Gurion, the exact distance between San Francisco and Oakland. I also could not figure out how the West Bank could be economically viable. I had ideas about Gaza, located on the Mediterranean Sea, which had a tremendous economic development possibility. However, given that Hamas ruled it, I could not see how it could combine with the Palestinian Authority government of the West Bank.

    Then there were the settlements. Israelis started slicing and dicing the West Banks, making an independent state there an impossibility.

    Now, I believe there must be a two-state solution. Oct. 7th shows that the sense of security and inviolability permeating Israel was an illusion. For the last several years, the Israelis were played by Hamas. Israel built a security fence above and below ground that cost close to a billion dollars. That, combined with the Iron Dome, made Israelis feel secure. Then, stupidly, the government thought that if they let some of the people in Gaza work in Israel, things would be better. How could they not realize that amongst those people were members of Hamas that used this access to Israel as a way to get information for the Oct. 7th attack?

    Hamas set about to terrorize Israelis by doing the most horrific things, like butchering people in front of their children, baking babies in ovens, gang raping women until their pelvis broke, and shooting them in the head as the rapist orgasm. They knew what the Israelis would be compelled to do, and that is what they wanted to happen. They tried to rapidly turn world opinion from the atrocities they committed to the bombings and destruction of Gaza and so many of its people.

    I don’t know what will happen in the short term. But clearly, not having a two-state solution did not make Israel safe. So, as difficult as it is to conceive, it is time to try something different. But Israel can not do this on its own. So if the world does care about the Palestinian people and all the protests are in support of them and just not driven by hatred of Israel and hatred of Jews, then let those countries do something, please.

  • Thoughts once again about Israel and Palestine

    Periodically, I make the mistake of posting something about the Palestinian/Israeli conflict on Facebook.  This often results in a long dialog by various Facebook “friends”.  I join in a bit.  However, I thought this time,  I would open it up to you my blog as readers as well as my Facebook “friends”.
    Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa
    The Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of Israel, is not capable of being democratic, sadly. This does not have to do so much with the predominant religion, Islam, the culture of the people or even the hot sun. It is the result of actions taken by western powers over the years. First the British and French explicitly screw things up by carving up the territory, they got from the Turk at the end of World War I, in ways that would benefit them and keep them colonial power in the region.

    How did we get this mess
    After WWII, Europe decided it would be better to let their remaining Jews emigrate to Palestine rather than have to deal with their collective guilt resulting in their complicity in the holocaust and anyway, they really did not like Jews and were glad to get rid of them. At that time, they cared even less for the Arabs, so they had no real concern for what would result from the immigration of European Jews to the region. By this time, there were many Jews that had moved to Palestine which was sparsely populated.

    After WWII, England and France were no longer the powers they once were. Keeping their control over the Middle East was too expensive. England decided to dump the problem of Palestine (which at that time was at that time one area which contained both what is today, Israel and the West Bank) in the laps of the newly formed United Nations. The result was the partitioning of greater Palestine into Israel and Palestine. Then the war of independence started. The Jews were attacked by Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and a few other Arab countries. Palestinians were told to leave by their leaders and in some cases, they were forced out by the Jews. Eventually, there was an armistice and the pre-1967 war, border was established. Rather than getting a country of their own, the Palestinians on the West Bank of the Jordan river were made citizens of a greater Jordan. Gaza which was a small and sleepy fishing village which was swelled in numbers because of refugees from Israel giving up beautiful land and homes in places like Yafo, for squalor of Gaza became part of Egypt but those living there were made stateless by the Egyptians.

    Most Arab nations (not Iran which is not an Arab nation) expelled their Jewish Citizens which had the unintended consequences of strengthening the Jewish State. It was not until the religious fanatics took over Iran, that most of the Iranian Jews left to colonize Beverly Hills. The plight of Palestinians which left Israel on their own or were forced out (one can debate the relative numbers) gets a lot of attention. This is because, after three generations, most are still living as refugees thanks to the UN support. Arab countries have been unwilling to absorb the Palestinians. The plight of Jews forced out of Arab countries is not discussed because they have been fully integrated into Israel.

    Keeping the West Bank and Gaza was a terrible mistake by Israel
    After the 1967 war, Israel made a terrible decision to hold onto the West Bank and Gaza with the hopes that they could trade those lands for Peace with Jordan and with Egypt. By the time peace with those two countries came, neither Jordan or Egypt were interested in getting back the land they administered prior to 1967. Arafat for instance tried to overthrow the King of Jordan and started a civil war there. By the way, there was no Palestinian State. Palestinians have gotten more governmental control under Israeli occupation than they ever had under the Jordanians or Egyptians.

    While it made sense for Israel to use its military to provide security in the West Bank and Gaza, political forces in Israel involving both economics and religious factions resulted in the settlements and the building of roads for Israeli’ through the territories which I refer to as the slicing and dicing of Palestine.

    Who really cares about the Palestinians
    Arab countries treat the Palestinians that lived in their countries as second-class citizens or worse. They accused Israel of crimes against the Palestinians but force them to stay in refugee camps. They used hatred against Israel and the Jews to strengthen their own political positions.

    Palestinian Leadership
    Israel gave up Gaza which was taken over by a bunch of gangsters (I can’t call them terrorists because they give terrorists a bad name), Hamas. Hamas came into power because the USA pushed for democratic elections against the advice of Israel. Please note
    that there has not been an election in the West Bank for eleven years. If there was, Hamas would likely win. The current leaders of the Palestinians carry on the tradition of Arafat, the first Palestinian leader, and embezzle billions of dollars. Ramallah, where the Palestinian leaders live, has some really nice Villas although the really great ones are in Switzerland.

    How the USA screwed up and continues to screw up
    By invading Iraq, the USA changed the balance of power in the middle east and, in particular, strengthen the role of Iran.
    US policy in the area has been a disaster from Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Yemen.
    There is no longer a functioning government in Syria. Israeli border with Syria is about 90 minutes from Tel Aviv. I have stood at the border several times and watch the war going on in Syria. I could hear the bombs and see the smoke. It is just about an hour drive to Damascus from there. Iraq is falling apart and can only stand up to ISIS with the support of Iran. Libya and Yemen are failed states. Egypt is back safely in the hands of its army instead of the Muslim Brotherhood that Obama supported.

    Is this the time for a Palestinian State
    I would love to see the Palestinian people have their own state. Really! I do have questions about its viability economically unless there was a strong economic cooperation with Israel. For the Palestinians have their own state Israel would have to be secure that such a state will not become a hotbed of terrorism. Just think that Ben Gurion Airport is closer to the West Bank than Oakland is to San Francisco. The distance from the West Bank to Natalya is just nine miles

    If the West Bank was taken over by Hamas or even worse by ISIS, Israel would have to re-occupy it and it would be very ugly and many people, mostly Palestine would be harmed or worse.

    I am not comfortable or proud of how Israel handles the Palestinian situation. I think that many take advantage of the real issues like security to further their own political or economic objectives. But I still think Israel treats the Palestinians better than any Arab country with the possible exception of Jordan. The standard of living in the West Bank is relatively high as is health care and reductions. Women certainly have many more rights than they would experience in most Arab countries. But this does not justify the occupation. The only justification is security and I support that totally but do not want to see that exploited.

    Netanyahu a Politician with a Messiah Complex
    Netanyahu just won reelection. He said some stupid things to get reelected, but he is not the first politician to do that. He said there would not be a two-state solution while he was in power. While that is probably true and something everyone knows, he was supposed to play along with the charade like everyone else. He was also guilty of saying that Arab voters were coming out to the polls in droves because they represent the left. It reminds me of things being done by the Republicans in the USA although they do worse things like passing laws to deny African Americans and Hispanics the right vote.

    I believe that Netanyahu thinks he is the savior of the Jewish people. He is not. In fact, maybe he is the opposite although many would disagree with that. However, I think he is better grounded in the facts of the region than Obama.

    I did not vote for Netanyahu. I am a liberal and have always been. But the constant attack on Israel by liberals in the USA is getting to really upset me. I don’t expect anything from Europe. Europe continues to have anti-Jewish views. This will probably not change in my lifetime.

    Obama such a disappointment
    Obama has really made me angry. The American policies in this region have been terrible. You can’t blame all this on George Bush as much as I would like to. Look at how Obama has handled Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Yemen. Israel is expected to listen to this man for guidance with respect to Palestine. Now he is working with Iran. This really helps make Israel feel secure about having a Palestinian state as its next door neighbor especially since Iran has been funding Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north. I think Obama confuses short term action and agreements with long term results. He really is not very strategic and I don’t think he would have every been hired by me although I did vote for him twice.

    The unholy holy alliance
    Over the years, Israel has been able to get more and more support from the American Right Wing and in particular from the Religious Right. They have some kind of idea that the Jews have to go back to Israel so that the Rapture can take place and somehow all the born again will be called up to Heaven. Strangely, most Jews in the USA (Sheldon Adelson excluded) are either Democrats or Independents and certainly few expect they will be whisked up to Heaven.

    The left wing in the USA has been slowly or turning against Israel and equating the actions of Israel with respect to Palestine as some kind of Apartheid. This is simple-minded, to say the least. I am sure the same people support the election that resulted in Hamas taking over Gaza. These people would not last a day in Gaza before they would be thrown off a roof or hung. Hamas is not yet into cutting off people heads, but it will probably not be long.

    Israeli politics is screwed up by the same movement to the Religious Right. Sometimes I think that the proof that there is no God can be seen by looking at those that say know his wishes.

    So what to do
    First, it is important to become realistic about the situation in this part of the world. It is a really bad neighbor with infected by various gangs. If you lived in such a neighborhood and had children, you might want to build a fence.

    So what is there to do? Let’s stop talking about the mystical two-state solution. Instead, let us spend the next five to ten years to make the West Bank a success by having the equivalent of a Marshall Program to create an industrial revolution in Palestine. Then let us talk again. I am personally willing to commit time and even money to strengthening Palestine but I have trouble finding partners on the other side and I have tried.

  • Israel/Palestine, my prediction for the future: A Palestinian State but no peace agreement

    In my last post on the topic of Israel/Palestine, I laid out a number of possible scenarios. It was not an exhaustive list. The purpose of this post is to suggest what I think will happen. But I need to make a disclaimer first. It is extremely hard to predict what will happen in this part of the world. While there are clear forces at work, there is also a lot of random events that can shape the future. Never the less, I am going to give it a try.  I could also not deal with each and every issue.

    There will be a Palestinian State…

    I have recently written about a number of possible scenarios about how the Israeli/Palestine conflict might be resolved/evolved. Now I am going to write about what I think will actually happen.

    First, I should say that the majority of Israeli’s believe that the current situation will continue for the next ten to twenty years. I do not. I believe that there will be a Palestinian State sometime in the next five years, maybe as soon as two years.

    …but, no Peace Agreement

    The Israeli Government and the Palestinian Authority will never be able to reach an agreement.  Both understand that the Peace Process will not result in anything. John Kerry was the only person that thought there would be an actual peace agreement and he has probably given up. 

    There is no agreement that would be acceptable to both sides. Maybe the two leaders could agree but they could never get the support from the other members of their cabinets. In the case of Abbas, he would probably be assassinated if he ever agreed to terms acceptable to Israel.

    So, to get around the lack of an agreement, Palestine will try to apply for recognition at the UN.  Only the USA can prevent this from happening and if they get a green light from Israel, they will no longer stand in the way. Abbas desperately wants to be the first Palestinian Head of State.  He is old and does not have much time to accomplish this.  Netanyahu understands that the time is now to have an independent Palestinian State which will allow him to focus Israel on Iran.

    However, before the Palestinian Authority can really declare its Statehood and get it accepted, Israel will preempt this act by declaring its borders, which by default, will become the borders of Palestine. Here is where it gets really interesting.

    Israel defines the borders

    Israel, having had enough of the negotiations, defines the Two State Solution and implements it.  They redraw the borders. Five or so major Israeli settlements are included as part of Israel. The rest of them are not and the Israeli government offers the residents of those Settlements financial compensation and provides new land in Israel proper to relocate those residents. In exchange for the land that Israel appropriates, land inside of Israel is made part of Palestine. This includes some major Arab cities now located on the Israeli side of the border. This includes such cities as Umm al-Fahm in the Galilee area. It has a population of 50,000. Right now the people who live there are Israeli Citizens and have all the benefits of that. While they basically consider themselves Palestinians, I would doubt that they would rejoice at becoming part of Palestine. Israel will offer to relocate them to other areas that will be in Israel proper and the ability to maintain  Israeli Citizenship if they move. If they do not, they will lose their Israeli Citizenship. Israel will of course build a separation barrier around these newly incorporated Palestinian cities.

    Jordan and Israel will set up a Military Zone in the Jordan Valley

    The last thing Jordan wants is a border with Palestine that relies on Palestinian security. Don’t forget, the Palestinians already tried to overthrow the Hashemite King of Jordan. So Israel and Jordan will set up a military zone between the border of Palestine and Jordan. Jordan will say they are only participating because otherwise, it would be just the Israeli’s and this way they can help protect the interests of the Palestinians. Israel will still control the borders but will agree to turn that over to Palestinians in ten years provided that Palestine does an adequate job in preventing terrorist attacks in Israel.  

    Israel allows for the immigration of Palestinian refugees into Palestine. Israel will allow Palestinians who live in Gaza and are not known members of terrorist organization to move to the West Bank through Israel. But until the population of Gaza is reduced to less than 500,000, this will be a one way trip.

    Israel will agree to any reasonable commercial relationship with Palestine for the supply of such things as energy and water. Palestinians will be given permits to work in Israel provided they are not considered security risks.

    Effect on World Opinion

    There will be a lot of outrage about some of Israel’s actions in defining the borders, but once Palestine has its own state and is no longer occupied, the world will slowly lose interest in the plight of the Palestinians.  

    What about the Palestinian Refugees?

    Israel will agree to allow Palestinian refugees from Jordan, Syria and Lebanon to enter into Palestine but will limit the number per year and will ban certain people.  

    Palestinian Terrorism

    It will be hard to prevent terrorism from taking place, but to the extent the missiles are sent from Palestine into Israel, Israel will have the ability to take defensive actions under international law.  Palestinians will have to decide if they want to have a modern and progressive country that seeks peace with its neighbor, Israel, or to become like Gaza, dysfunctional.

    Is this stable and what will come after?

    I do not believe that Palestine is economically viable as a stand alone state unless it can forge strong ties with Israel and with Jordan. In that case, it could become a fully functioning country.  If, on the other hand, it becomes a terrorist state, Israel will probably have to reoccupy it once more.  

  • Israel and Palestine, the most difficult post(s) I have ever written

    Welcome to the Holy Land
    My wife and I are spending 3 1/2 months living in Tel Aviv, a city which I think is one of the most exciting places in the world. I lived in Israel from 1974-1979 but it was a very different country then and I was a very different person. I left Israel, both disappointed in myself and disappointed in Israel or at least my experience of Israel. Over the years, I returned for business and then later for the experience of just being here. I fell in love with Israel. I am dedicated to its security and survival. But this does not make me blind to its mistakes, and in particular, the mistakes of its leaders. Still, I am often frustrated that Israel seems to be held up to a higher standard than other countries. As a Jew that was born on the day that Auschwitz was liberated, I wonder if there are other reasons for that. However, I will let that thought pass.

    This is one of the most difficult blog posts I have ever written. In fact, I have decided to make it a series of posts. The situation here is so complex that it makes my mind explode. I am used to writing about things I understand well, but frankly, I am not sure it is possible to understand this situation. That is beyond my and perhaps anyones capabilities. It it is just my attempt to try to make sense out of what I am experiencing. If you think I am confused, you are right. I also imagine that there are those on both sides of the conflict that will be angered by my comments.

    First I would like to summarized my key points. I will then follow up with more detailed posts on each of these points.

    There would be no Israel if it were not for the Anti-Semitism of Europe.
    The pogroms in eastern Europe in the late 19th century, which drove my own family to the USA, gave birth to the Zionist movement, the movement to have the Jews return to their ancestral homeland. The Zionists believed that Jews could only be safe in their own land and that Europe was a hostile environment for Jews. This was clearly proven later through the first part of the 20th century and by the Holocaust, which resulted in the death of six million jews, nearly two-thirds of all European Jewish populations.

    The British, which controlled the homeland of the Jews, collaborated with Jewish leaders to create such a homeland in the heart of the Arab Middle East.

    If Jews had been able to integrate in Eastern Europe, or at least feel safe there, and if Hitler had not targeted the Jews for extermination, European Jews would have remained in Europe just like American Jews pretty much remained in America even after the creation of the State of Israel. This process continues with Anti-Semitism showing its ugly head again in France. Many of the 300,000 Jews living here are making plans to move to Israel.

    Jews would not have left Europe without an actual state
    It was necessary to create an actual Jewish State (for the first time in 2000 years) to get the Jews to move to the land of Palestine which really had little to offer economically, and had little meaning for those that were not religious. To create a state where none existed, Palestine which the British took from the Turks at the end of WWI, had to be carved up in such away that the Jews living there would constitute a majority in the part that would be assigned to them. This resulted in the partitioning of Greater Palestine into Israel and Palestine (West Bank and Gaza).

    Neither the Jews nor the Arabs really wanted to partition or each other
    What I mean is they both wanted to take all the land. Each side hoped they could drive the other side out and claim the whole country. While that did not happen, the Jewish side was able to take control of a larger part of what was to be Palestine. Over 700,000 Palestinians fled either because they were told to leave by the Arab leaders or because they were driven out by the Jews. Instead of a Palestine state being established, Jordan took possession of the West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Old City, while Egypt took Gaza. No attempt was made by these countries to set up an independent Palestinian State.

    Jews living in North Africa and the Middle East were forced to leave their countries as well
    About the same number of Jews, 700,000 were forced out of Arab countries where they had been living in some cases for thousands of years. Most came to Israel, resulting in the majority of Israeli’s actually having come from Middle Eastern/North African families. So while Israel was originally thought to be a nation of European Jews it actually became a nation of both European and North African/Middle Eastern Jews. The Palestinians now ask for the right of return to Israel for their “refugees”, about 5,000,000 of them, while no Arab country is offering to take back the Jews they forced out.

    Six Day War results in Occupation
    The war between Israel and the majority of the Arab states resulted in a major defeat for the Arabs. Israel took control of the West Bank including Jerusalem and Gaza as wells the Golan Heights which was part of Syria. Jews could now enter the old city and worship at the Western Wall of the Temple Mount. Jordan was given control over the actual Temple mount on which the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

    Keeping the West Bank and Gaza was a grave mistake
    In my opinion, Israel should have backed out of the West Bank and Gaza after the cease-fire. Evidently, Israel offered to do this in return for a peace agreement with Jordan, Egypt and Syria but they would not agree.

    The result has been very damaging to Israel. The government could not prevent Jews who believe in a Greater Israel (including the West Bank) from building Settlements there. The settlements are driven by religious, political, security and economic reasons.

    There might have been a settlement and a Palestinian State in 2000 but Arafat did not really want it
    It seemed that a real settlement was close, but evidently it was not in the best interest of the Palestinian leadership, who I blame primarily for the breakdown. Instead, they used a stupid act by Ariel Sharon, (who was running for prime minister at the time ) as an excuse to start a war of resistance and terrorism which was know as the Second Intifada. The Palestinians targeted Israeli civilians including children. Israel responded aggressively including the building of what is now called Separation Walls. Continuing to build Settlements and roads connecting Israel and the Settlements, resulted in the slicing and dicing of Palestine.

    Israel leaves Gaza and gets a taste of what might happen if Palestine becomes a state
    In 2005, Israel leaves Gaza in an unilateral move. Israeli settlers living there were forced to evacuate. By 2007, Hamas, a terrorist organization, took over the government of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in a bloody coup. Israel still controls the borders of Gaza. Gaza shares a border with Egypt which is tightly controlled by that country.

    The two State Solution is not Viable
    Most Israeli’s don’t even think about Palestine. They imagine that they are living somewhere in Europe or maybe Southern California. This is especially true in Tel Aviv. So Israeli’s think that the Palestinians are somehow going to leave and move to Jordan. But most just try to ignore the situation. Things are very different for the Palestinians. They feel that they are in prison and, in fact they are, with very high walls cutting throughout their land. They are often treated poorly by the Israeli soldiers who are acting like a police force in a large part of Palestine.

    It is not clear that the Palestinian Authority could continue to serve in a two state solution.  Israel not only protects the settlers in the West Bank but also the Palestinian Leadership. One just has to look at what happened in Gaza to imagine the potential fate of a Palestinian State.
    Israel left Gaza in 2005, in 2008 Hamas took over and executed the members of the Palestinian Authority living there, including throwing some of them off of buildings. The Palestinian Authority is known to be corrupt. This was one of the few things that Palestinians and Israeli’s can agree on.

    I don’t understand why John Kerry is working so hard to get a solution for the Israeli/Palestine conflict. He must believe it is possible and he is the guy to do it. But he must also be delusional. And, is this really the most important issue for the USA?

    The Middle East is a bad neighborhood that is only getting worse
    The countries that surround Israel are only getting weaker. Israel no longer has to worry about a war from a neighboring state. Instead, it has to be concerned about terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and while both of these groups are also getting weaker, they are getting hold of weapons that could be used to attack the Israeli Heartland. Terrorist attacks especially of the suicide kind, are very difficult to prevent. I do not believe there is anything that Israel could do politically that would make any difference. So Israel turns to Military might and their Intelligence capabilities for its security.

    The treat of Iran makes for strange bedfellows (like Saudi Arabia and Israel)

    My recommendations
    You are going to have to wait until the last post of this series to read this.