Due terzi compiuti

Pensieri e esperienze di un’anatra selvaggia di ottanta e un anni.

Avram Miller by the sea
EN | IT

587 post pubblicati dal 2006

Tag: Israele

  • The Iran deal…is it the beginning of the end? or the end of the beginning?

    I  really don’t know how I feel about the deal with Iran.  I tend to look at this situation from the eyes of an American/Israeli and the existential threat that a nuclear Iran represents. Through these eyes, it looks like the beginning of the end. The end of Israel. Once Iran demonstrates that it has an atomic bomb, everyone in Israel that has a foreign passport, and there are many, will leave the country.  But through the eyes of an American who is probably not risking the future of his children, it could be the beginning of a new Iran.  Iran is a great country lead by some awful people.  It has so much potential.

    In the short term, the deal agreed to by Obama, which could be stopped by congressional action, will make Israel safer.  I think Iran will be on its good behavior for a while, at least with respect to atomic weapons. 

    This makes Israel the only nuclear power in the middle east.  It also makes Israel the only power that can challenge Iran if it should get nuclear weapons.  That is one of the reasons that Arab countries like Saudi Arabia are holding their noses and making secret deals with Israel.

    The USA will probably try to make up with Israel, especially in time for the Presidential Election.  The Democrats will need Jewish financial support (we don’t have enough people to matter when it comes to votes.)  I doubt that they will put any pressure on Israel to deal with the Palestinians.  The Republicans, who are supported by the Zionist Christians, certainly will not put pressure on Israel.  I am sure that Netanyahu and Abbas called each other up and expressed their hope that Kerry would not be coming back to the region for a while.

    Iran will go after ISIS even harder.  They love a situation where they can kill Sunnis and have the world’s applause. Israel is probably giving intelligence about ISIS activities just as they give ISIS info on Iran’s activities.  

    Oil prices will continue to go down.  This will really hurt Russia, so it is hard to understand why they supported this agreement. There must be something being offered to Russia and China to see them so cooperative. 

    If the deal goes through, Obama will go down in history as either a very courageous man that took risk to keep the USA out of another war and prevent Iran from getting the bomb (at least for a long time) or, as one of the greatest fools of all time for dropping the sanctions and trusting Iran.  At least the man has guts.

    Perhaps, Iran will slowly turn to the west.  Their people clearly want that.  A man can dream!

    The loser in all this is Netanyahu in my opinion.  He showed that he could not stop the USA from doing this deal, and now that it is done (pretty much), he will have to turn his attention to  domestic issues and there are many. 

    The Palestinians continue to see their position weakened even though Europe talks a good game.  No one really cares.  Israel is busy making sure that Hamas and the PLO never get together, playing off of their greed, corruption and the  hatred of each other.

    It will probably be a few months or more before the deal is signed.  This gives us all a lot of time to decide if this is a good deal or a bad deal.  No matter what we think know, we will not really know for many years.

  • Iran: A bad good deal or a good bad deal

    Of course, everyone is talking about the Iran Nuclear Deal especially here in Israel where I am living at the moment. This a place where a national pastime is asking the question “Is this good for the Jews or bad for the Jews?” This question comes up not only in the context of a political discussion, but it could be asked about the restart of the Hadron Collider or the introduction of a new Apple TV.

    I am not going to discuss the deal per se. Frankly, I don’t know how I feel about it. One minute, I think it is a good deal and then the next, I think it is a bad deal. I think Obama does not understand the middle east and is a fool, but then I think he is brave and wants to stop the continued American War in the region which has done nothing to secure peace for anyone.

    So I will share with you a few of the random thoughts that might pass for wisdom if one ignored the source (me).

    The Bull(y)
    Iran does not need a lot of atomic weapons to fire at Israel unless they really do have a mission to finish Hitler’s business. All they have to do is test one atomic weapon and everyone in Israel with a foreign passport, especially those that have young children, would be lining up at Ben Gurion Airport. Yes, Israel has atomic weapons and the ability to destroy Iran in retaliation for the destruction of Israel but that does not make people feel safe because Israelis fear that the Iranian leadership is not rational.

    I would guess that Iran already has a few atomic weapons which they acquired from our friends, the Pakistanis or maybe from North Korea. They have the missile capability to reach Israel. Sure, Israel might be able to stop a missile but these missiles are not like the sling shots that Hamas uses. Who would take a chance? The reason I think that Iran has been building up their capabilities is not to threaten Israel, but to become the biggest bully in the region.

    Iran moves to Plan B
    The sanctions really were hurting Iran which is the only reason they came to the table. But getting rid of the sanctions in return for stopping their march towards obtaining atomic weapons, does not strengthen them in the region. That is where Plan B come into effect. Iran will use the gain in its economic power resulting from the end of sanctions, to make mischief all over the region. They will accomplish this by funding and equipping Shite terrorist groups like Hezbollah or the Houthi Rebels in Yemen. There will be turmoil all over the middle east and North Africa. Eventually, it will make its way into Saudi Arabia and could affect the Saudi’s ability to produce oil. This could eventually have the blessed effect of boosting Oil prices for the Iranians and their secret backer, Russia (more about this later).

    Of course, they will go after Israel using Hezbollah whom they have already equipped with tens of thousands of missiles. If Hezbollah attacks Israel in a way that really damages the country by killing off thousands of civilians and closing the airport, Israel will wipe them off the face of the earth. They will not have enough body parts left to enjoy their 72 virgins. But Iran will not care much, after all, they are only Arabs and not Persians.

    Netanyahu and the blessings of ISIS
    Is ISIS good for the Jews or bad for the Jews? That answer as cynical as it sounds is, that ISIS is good. I am not going to explain everything to you so use your own imagination. It was Menachem Begin that said, “when your enemies are fighting, wish them both success”.

    Master Putin and his magic carpet
    As I mentioned, a few countries would benefit from Saudi Arabia in Turmoil. Russia, significantly, would benefit the most. And anyway, this kind of things is right up Putin’s alley. So guess where the excess Iranian nuclear material is to be stored?
    The Solution: Sex, drugs and Rock and Roll
    Clearly there is only one solution and that is a change in the Iranian regime and the introduction of Western Values.  That would be so wonderful. The Iranian people are great and they know how to party.  It was in Iran where I learned to drink ice cold Vodka and eat caviar by the pound. I spent time there in the 1970s and hope to go back someday. But how can this  be accomplished? If I were running Israel, I would be ramping up a program to make this happen.  What choice does Israel have? Microdrones anyone?
    Obama’s Real War
    Now Obama must deal with Congress. This may prove more difficult than negotiating with the Iranians. Right now, I think it is 50/50 that the deal will be approved by congress. They will have to pass a law to prevent it and have a veto-proof majority which means that finally we will have a bipartisan bill.

    As I said at the beginning of this post, I don’t know if this is a bad good deal or a good bad deal. I would guess that Obama does not really know himself. But given his limited time in office, we will probably not find out before he goes. I bet Obama has a calendar somewhere where he checks off the days remaining for him in Office.

  • Here is what is really going on in the Middle East and why Obama is there now (or at least my fantasy of what is going on)

     

    In the last few years, the situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically and positively for Israel.  The Arab Spring has weakened Israel’s neighbors such as Egypt. The Syrian situation and the belligerence of Iran has actually strengthened Israel and made it much more powerful and influential in the region. Israel’s demonstration of the effectiveness of its anti-missile program, together with its success in Cyberwar fare, make it much more difficult for Iran to threaten Israel – this is generally recognized.  The change in the USAs domestic energy production has made it much less dependent on oil from the region and less concern about disruptions there. In the mean time, Israel has discovered massive gas reserves off its coast. The Palestinians have a weak and divided government and almost no one cares what happens to them.  Israel continues to become stronger economically and militarily, but realizes that there has to be solution for the occupied territories although it does not really want a two state solution anymore.  The behavior of Hamas after Israel left Gaza has killed that idea once and for all.
     
    Neighbors in Chaos
    I believe the situation in Syria will be the catalyst for what is about to happen.  Syria borders Lebanon Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey. It is the last three that really matter.  And as you will see, it is Jordan that will play the most important role. But lets start with Turkey.  Netanyahu just apologized to the prime minister of Turkey. Obama was standing at his side.  Does anyone think that is a coincidence?  Turkey, is a member of Nato with a very strong military.  It is already dealing with the effects of the civil war in Syria with hundreds of thousands of refugees. Turkey has a major problem with the Kurds in its country. They want to create a Kurdish State. The part of Iraq that boarders Syria is Kurdish and only loosely under the control of the Iraqi shiite-dominated government.  The rich oil fields of Iraq are in the Kurdish areas.  Turkey together with other members of Nato with the help US airpower will occupy Syria.  Jordan, is very concerned with the problems of Syria spilling over into Jordan. There is already a major refugee problem and unlike Turkey, Jordan is a small and economically weak country. So they are very concerned about the Syrian situation and would welcome Turkey and Nato’s actions. They are also concerned about the Palestinians who are a large minority in Jordan, and at one time, tried to overthrow the Hashemite  kingdom.  Egypt does not have much of a role in all this but would be given some additional aid which they will be desperate for.
     
    The Two State Solution will not Happen
    Israel does not want a two state solution.  Not only are there concerns with the security problems this would create, but they don’t believe that Palestine would be economically viable on its own.  Israel would like Jordan to take back the West Bank in some way. It could be a loose federation where the responsibility for security could be controlled by the Jordanian Government whom the Israeli’s trust.  To get that to happen, the USA would have to provide very significant economic development dollars to Jordan for both the east and west sides of the Jordan River. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank would become part of Greater Jordan.  But under agreement with Israel, the settlers would continue to be citizens of Israel.  Settlements could continue to grow but there would be no new Settlements.  Israeli’s would be free to live in Jordan and own property and businesses there. Palestinians will not be happy with this situation because they want their own country, but they will not get their own country.  Once this solution is imposed, economic development in Palestine would be significant, and Palestinians will begin to see the benefits.
     
    So where does that leave Gaza?  Gaza does not make any sense.  It is a very small place which is pretty much a slum with massive unemployment.  Incentives would have to be given to have the people of Gaza move to the West Bank.  Gaza would remain but it would become a small port to deal with the  import and export of goods from what would now be Greater Palestine.  Israel would provide a secure highway between the West Bank and Gaza.  Now Jordan would have ports on both the red sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
     
    Without Syria’s support and a weakened  Iran, the terrorist  organization, Hezbollah, will see their power in Lebanon reduced.  Incentives can be provided to renew Lebanon and a treaty with Israel will significantly increase tourism in the area as tourists would now be able to visit Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Egypt.  
     
    Iran Weakened and Isolated
    Iran continues to be weakened by sanctions. It has no real friends.  It realizes that without atomic weapons, it has no real power which is why it continues to develop this capability.  Iran cannot successfully attack Israel with conventional weapons.  Israel would be able to defend itself with its missile shield and then be able to attack Iran without turning the world against it.  Israel has most likely infiltrated the computer systems and the defense systems of Iran already. I would not be surprised if a missile shot by Iran at Israel did not find itself redirected to Tehran.  But Israel, the USA and the other players in the region cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear capability. The USA will try what ever it can do to prevent this, but if it cannot, it will distroy Iran’s capabilities.  This will only be a set back but at least it will provide for a next round.
     
    Now, the only thing I have to worry about is the FBI trying to figure out how I knew about Obama’s secret plan. 
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

  • I don’t believe that Israel will attack Iran before the 2012 election. This is why

    Dear readers, I have redone the blog post.  It turns out that a draft copy was sent to all my subscribers which had even more grammar and spelling mistakes than normal.  I apologize and ask you to read it again. Thanks.

    These are my views on a very complex situation.
    Iran is trying to provoke Israel into attacking it. The result would be a massive change of sentiment particularly in Europe and America. Israel would find herself even more Isolated.  Iran would then be able to play the victim. The ruling Iranian government bodies would get more support from their populace. Few Iranians would be injured or killed since Israel’s target would be the reactor facilities which are not located near population centers. The Iranians would have an excuse for delaying making a bomb, and a better reason to have one. But while Iran is playing this game, they are paying a high price because of crippling sanctions.
    Israel wants to convince the USA that it is willing to attack Iran and wants to get concessions from the Obama government. Some of these involve actions that the USA would take against Iran in different situations.  Some involve things that will never be made public. Israel is in a good position to get these concessions because Obama does not want Israel to attack Iran before the election.  Such an attack would have a very negative effect on oil prices which could tank the US economy and could cost him the election. Furthermore, Obama would be in a very difficult position responding to the Israeli action.

    If Obama wins the election, he will probably honor whatever commitments he made to Israel.  If he loses to a Republican, that person will probably honor the commitments and maybe even give a bit more. But things could get out of hand.  There are militant elements in Iran and Israel that actually want to have this war.  There are also such elements in the United States Congress.

    I also believe that Israel has infiltrated the Iranian government and military computers.  It would not be surprising to me, that if  Iran launched missiles at Israel they might “accidentally” blow up Iranian cities.  The Iranians probably suspect that this might be the case.

    Now, I need to get back to writing my novel.

  • observations from my recent stay in Israel

    I am still trying to process my recent eight day experience in Israel.  I entered Israel from Egypt, driving from Sharm el Sheikh to the Israeli border at Talba and walked into Eilat.  The trip through Sinai was amazing, awesome and beautiful.  It took me about ten minutes to cross the border and neither side was very interested in asking my questions.  My bag was not opened by the Israelis.  I wrote a bit about my experience in Sharm and driving through the Sinai qui.

    I spent the bulk of my time in Israel in Tel Aviv.  I love Tel Aviv.  It is one of if not the most exciting city in the world.  It has the excitement of New York but the weather of LA.  The town never sleeps.  I was having dinner at mid night every evening (unfortunately for me, I still woke up at 6:00 am every day as is my norm).  You also do not see or hear anything that would let you know that just some 40 miles or so to the south is Gaza. And the West bank some 15 miles or less.  I know a lot of people  and got to participate in conversations.  The Palestinian situation seemed to be pretty low on the list of thing to speak about.  The economy is booming.  There is amazing real estate construction everywhere in Tel Aviv (and Israel I think).  When I ask what people think will happen with respect to Palestine, I generally get the answer that the person I ask does not know.  People have various views from the extreme right who really think the Palestine’s are useless and their on worse enemies to those that feel a strong responsibility for some of the injustice they perceptive is taking place especially by the armed forces.  But these people can all be friends and share a meal together.  Most people think that the political system in Israel is awful (it is even worse than the USA system).  But everyone is just going on with their lives which generally are intense, creative and productive.   The Israeli’s live pretty much in the moment.  Technology development is everywhere but also many other industries are developing in Israel and taking a world leadership position.  The wall has a lot to do with the sense of security (false sense I think) that Israeli’s have.
    But then the Israeli’s are very philosophical.  One friend in his 60s said that he was born in Israel and there have never been clear borders his whole life. He asked ” maybe borders are no longer needed ?”  but of course there are borders, they just change and are  not agreed upon.  In talking with someone I meet during this trip, I got an insight. It was actually something I have been thinking for a while but did not put into words.  Israel is the only country that cares about the Palestinians and the only country that can really help them.  Egypt is building even a bigger wall around Gaza.  Jordan wants to isolate the Palestinians and yet they could be so helpful.  Iran could care less in reality.  They just use the Palestinian cause for their own cynical purposes.

    You see a lot of south eastern Asians working as guest workers in Israel as well as some Africans.  They are taking jobs that use to be done by Palestinians.   Israel has taken in a lot of Somalians

    I asked my friends if the Americans were helping or hurting the peace process.  Everyone I spoke to thought they were helpful.  But no one expected anything to come out of it.  I never talked to any one that supported the settlements which I think  have to be stopped.  But given Israeli politics, will they stop?

  • Israel leaves the middle east

    Just read a very good op ed by David Brooks which you can read qui. When I was in Israel in May, I was blown away the developments in every area from technology to art. I lived in Israel in the 70s and was one of the first to develop a technology based export business. While I have been back many times, these are different times for Israel. Much of this is due to the increased sense of security that is the the result of the walls built around the border areas. While these walls are there to protect Israel from terrorists (and they have been effective at that) they are a symbol of all that is wrong in the middle east. For not only do they protect Israel but the isolate the Arab countries from all that Israel could have contributed to their development. Israel no longer sees itself as part of the middle east. It is a developed country dealing with other developed countries. Walking around in Tel Aviv is like walking around in parts of LA or Palo Alto. But of course, Israel is located in the middle east. There is no real escape from that. In the meantime I plan to spend many weeks in Tel Aviv this year, proud to be a Jew in a Jewish country and maybe dream a bit about a day when there will be no wall.