Two Thirds Done

Thoughts and experiences of an eighty one year old Wild Duck.

Avram Miller by the sea
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587 posts since 2006

Tag: Iran atom bomb

  • Stupidity and Hubris: How Trump, aided by Netanyahu, helped break the world

    I just listened to the latest episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS, and I have to say—it left me genuinely frightened.

    https://edition.cnn.com/world/video/gps-0322-tehran-nuclear-bomb

    Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz made a striking point: this could be the war that pushes Iran past the threshold toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. His analysis is thoughtful, measured, and deeply concerning. I strongly recommend listening to the interview.

    What stood out to me is how he explains the role of leadership—specifically how the hubris and poor strategic judgment of both Trump and Netanyahu have contributed to a situation that may no longer be reversible. In my view, Trump may be the least capable president in modern history, and Netanyahu has done profound damage to the long-term security and moral standing of the Jewish people.

    The likely outcome? A stronger, wealthier Iran which is possibly nuclear-armed alongside a reinvigorated Russia. Furthermore , it would not surprise me to see China move on Taiwan.

    The world order I’ve known throughout my life may be ending. What comes next is deeply uncertain and, frankly, quite scary.

    Sorry to be such a downer.

  • I don’t believe that Israel will attack Iran before the 2012 election. This is why

    Dear readers, I have redone the blog post.  It turns out that a draft copy was sent to all my subscribers which had even more grammar and spelling mistakes than normal.  I apologize and ask you to read it again. Thanks.

    These are my views on a very complex situation.
    Iran is trying to provoke Israel into attacking it. The result would be a massive change of sentiment particularly in Europe and America. Israel would find herself even more Isolated.  Iran would then be able to play the victim. The ruling Iranian government bodies would get more support from their populace. Few Iranians would be injured or killed since Israel’s target would be the reactor facilities which are not located near population centers. The Iranians would have an excuse for delaying making a bomb, and a better reason to have one. But while Iran is playing this game, they are paying a high price because of crippling sanctions.
    Israel wants to convince the USA that it is willing to attack Iran and wants to get concessions from the Obama government. Some of these involve actions that the USA would take against Iran in different situations.  Some involve things that will never be made public. Israel is in a good position to get these concessions because Obama does not want Israel to attack Iran before the election.  Such an attack would have a very negative effect on oil prices which could tank the US economy and could cost him the election. Furthermore, Obama would be in a very difficult position responding to the Israeli action.

    If Obama wins the election, he will probably honor whatever commitments he made to Israel.  If he loses to a Republican, that person will probably honor the commitments and maybe even give a bit more. But things could get out of hand.  There are militant elements in Iran and Israel that actually want to have this war.  There are also such elements in the United States Congress.

    I also believe that Israel has infiltrated the Iranian government and military computers.  It would not be surprising to me, that if  Iran launched missiles at Israel they might “accidentally” blow up Iranian cities.  The Iranians probably suspect that this might be the case.

    Now, I need to get back to writing my novel.