Two Thirds Done

Thoughts and experiences of an eighty one year old Wild Duck.

Avram Miller by the sea
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587 posts since 2006

Tag: Presidential election 2016

  • A few of the things wrong with the American Presidential Election System

    Here are a few of my thoughts about the screwed up American Presidential Election system.

    The USA Electoral College system makes no sense

    I am not sure how many people understand how the electoral college works.  It is actually very complicated but I am not going to go into all the details.  Here are the key things to keep in mind.  Almost (but not states) are winner takes all.   For instance, California has the most votes at 55 and is a winner takes all state.  So the number of electoral college votes is the same if a candidate gets 50.1% or 99.9%.  In a state like California, which will vote Democratic, this has the effect of depressing the vote. Many people feel that their vote will not be needed to push the democratic candidate over the top or to give the republican candidate a chance.  So this results in lower turnout and can affect other important elections or state propositions. 

    It is possible as in the case of Gore versus Bush, that one candidate, Gore, could end up with the majority of the popular vote while another candidate, Bush, could end up with the majority of the Electoral vote.  This is nuts.

    If there is a tie in the electoral vote, the president is selected by the House of Representatives even if one of the candidates has a clear majority.  The House can choose any of the top three candidates without consideration of the popular vote.

    The Primaries drive the two parties to the extremes

    Very few people vote in the primaries and they are usually those that feel the most passionately about their positions which are usually to the extreme right or left.  This is forcing greater and greater division in the USA. 

    Favorable/Unfavorable polling is too simplistic

    Just asking if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a candidate does not tell you enough.  I may dislike one candidate but hate another.  I would rather see a scale from 1-10 where 1 is strongly disliked and 10 is strong dislike.  In the current election, I think that one would see Clinton in at a 4 overall and Trump at 2. 

    Voting No

    I would like to change the voting system so instead of voting for someone, you would have the option of voting against someone.  The effect of voting against someone would be to remove a vote they already got.  It would be possible to end up with a negative number. 

    There should be a consistent system of voting across the country

    Everyone should have the right to vote by mail at least one month in advance.  We should have a national holiday on the date the presidential election is held.  Polls should be open at least 12 hours.

    Presidential Terms should not be concurrent

    Presidents should not be able to run for a second term while still in office.  They have too much to do running the country and being in office gives them too strong a platform.

  • The next president of the United States may not be running for that office!

    For some time, I have been thinking that the next president of the USA might not be currently running for office. Perhaps this has been just wishful thinking. I can’t imagine the possibility of Donald Trump as president. Frankly, it scares me. While I can imagine Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office, I don’t find it that appealing. Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz don’t seem to have a chance, and I doubt that they would be effective leaders.  Cruz also scares me.

    So who could be the next president, the one that is not yet running? Well, it is the current Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan and here are two scenarios that put him into office.

    A Brokered Convention

    If none of the Republican candidates gets a majority of the delegates before the convention, then it is possible that that a candidate that did not run in the primaries could be elected. I will spare you the details about how this would happen. While there are some possible candidates, I think Paul Ryan has the best shot. Then, of course, he would have to compete with the Democratic Candidate, which will be most likely Hillary Clinton.  He would have a good chance of winning especially if various Clinton scandals get traction.

    A Third Party throws the Election to the House

    The constitution is clear that to be elected President and Vice President, one has to have a majority of the electrical college. The only way to not have this happen is to have more than two candidates running for office with a third candidate getting enough votes to deprive either of the other two candidates a simple majority although I guess the Electoral Collage could be evenly split.  In this case, the decision on who will be the next president is made by the House, which very likely will continue to be controlled by the Republicans after this next election.  If this happens, each state gets one vote. The representatives of the 39 states that have more than one Representative decide amongst themselves who they would vote for. If a state cannot reach a decision, they cannot vote. Please note that small states like Wyoming, Rhode Island, etc. have as much to say as California and Texas. The House has to select on of the top three candidates.  A simple majority vote by the Senate determines who will be Vice President. Once again, small states have the same vote as large states. However, the Senate may only choose between the top two Vice Presidential nominees. The House may have a Republican majority while the Senate could very well have a Democratic majority.  This would mean that the President and the Vice President could be from different parties.

    There are many ways this situation could happen.  One is for Mike Bloomberg to run and take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic Candidates to throw the election to the House.  If Trump is the Republican Nominee, I think the House will elect Bloomberg. Not sure who the Senate would select as Vice President.  The other way this could come about would be for Trump to be denied the Republican nomination and decide to run as a third party candidate. He could take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic candidate to throw the election to House.  In this case, the Republican Candidate would probably be elected President.

    Trump wins and gets Impeached immediately

    Trump is very scary and is capable of anything. It is not responsible to take a chance on what this thug would do with the power of the Presidency. Trump and his Vice President could be impeached and removed from office soon after getting there if the Democrats and Republicans in the Congress agreed to work together to make this happen. With these two people gone, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, would become president. This is the second scenario where Ryan becomes President.

    Hillary gets into legal trouble and Biden steps in

    I believe (but I’m not 100% sure) that if Hillary had to resign as a candidate before the election because of some scandal or legal action, and after getting more than 50% of the votes, a candidate that was not running could be chosen by the convention.  Of course, the convention could select Bernie but most of the delegates will be in the Hillary camp, and I don’t think they would go for it.  So it will be Biden to the rescue.  If Hillary is selected by the Convention and then resigns after, I would think her name would remain on the ballot.   The electoral college would vote for a candidate selected by the Democratic Party.  Once again, I believe that it would be Biden.

    So there you have it, there is a reasonable possibility that the next president of the United States will be Mike Bloomberg, Paul Ryan or Joe Biden.

  • Not sure who the next president of the USA will be but the next VP will be hispanic most likely

    The republicans are rightfully in trouble with the hispanic voters for their ridiculous behavior with respect to immigration.  The only way a republican nominee would have a chance to become president is if they could split the hispanic vote.  Unless they make a major change in their objection to comprehensive immigration reform, the only way they could do this is to nominate a hispanic for president or vice president.  It is doubtful that there is a hispanic candidate that could make it through the republican primaries to become that party’s nominee.  But I can well imagine that the VP candidate could be hispanic and maybe even a female hispanic.

    So the way for the Democrats to neutralize this strategy would be for them to nominate a hispanic for vice president too.