For some time, I have been thinking that the next president of the USA might not be currently running for office. Perhaps this has been just wishful thinking. I can’t imagine the possibility of Donald Trump as president. Frankly, it scares me. While I can imagine Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office, I don’t find it that appealing. Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz don’t seem to have a chance, and I doubt that they would be effective leaders. Cruz also scares me.
So who could be the next president, the one that is not yet running? Well, it is the current Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan and here are two scenarios that put him into office.
A Brokered Convention
If none of the Republican candidates gets a majority of the delegates before the convention, then it is possible that that a candidate that did not run in the primaries could be elected. I will spare you the details about how this would happen. While there are some possible candidates, I think Paul Ryan has the best shot. Then, of course, he would have to compete with the Democratic Candidate, which will be most likely Hillary Clinton. He would have a good chance of winning especially if various Clinton scandals get traction.
A Third Party throws the Election to the House
The constitution is clear that to be elected President and Vice President, one has to have a majority of the electrical college. The only way to not have this happen is to have more than two candidates running for office with a third candidate getting enough votes to deprive either of the other two candidates a simple majority although I guess the Electoral Collage could be evenly split. In this case, the decision on who will be the next president is made by the House, which very likely will continue to be controlled by the Republicans after this next election. If this happens, each state gets one vote. The representatives of the 39 states that have more than one Representative decide amongst themselves who they would vote for. If a state cannot reach a decision, they cannot vote. Please note that small states like Wyoming, Rhode Island, etc. have as much to say as California and Texas. The House has to select on of the top three candidates. A simple majority vote by the Senate determines who will be Vice President. Once again, small states have the same vote as large states. However, the Senate may only choose between the top two Vice Presidential nominees. The House may have a Republican majority while the Senate could very well have a Democratic majority. This would mean that the President and the Vice President could be from different parties.
There are many ways this situation could happen. One is for Mike Bloomberg to run and take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic Candidates to throw the election to the House. If Trump is the Republican Nominee, I think the House will elect Bloomberg. Not sure who the Senate would select as Vice President. The other way this could come about would be for Trump to be denied the Republican nomination and decide to run as a third party candidate. He could take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic candidate to throw the election to House. In this case, the Republican Candidate would probably be elected President.
Trump wins and gets Impeached immediately
Trump is very scary and is capable of anything. It is not responsible to take a chance on what this thug would do with the power of the Presidency. Trump and his Vice President could be impeached and removed from office soon after getting there if the Democrats and Republicans in the Congress agreed to work together to make this happen. With these two people gone, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, would become president. This is the second scenario where Ryan becomes President.
Hillary gets into legal trouble and Biden steps in
I believe (but I’m not 100% sure) that if Hillary had to resign as a candidate before the election because of some scandal or legal action, and after getting more than 50% of the votes, a candidate that was not running could be chosen by the convention. Of course, the convention could select Bernie but most of the delegates will be in the Hillary camp, and I don’t think they would go for it. So it will be Biden to the rescue. If Hillary is selected by the Convention and then resigns after, I would think her name would remain on the ballot. The electoral college would vote for a candidate selected by the Democratic Party. Once again, I believe that it would be Biden.
So there you have it, there is a reasonable possibility that the next president of the United States will be Mike Bloomberg, Paul Ryan or Joe Biden.