At what point do citizens become responsible for the actions of their government?
As a dual American and Israeli citizen, I have found myself living with this question on two fronts.
When Trump was first elected in 2016, he lost the popular vote. Many Americans did not support him. Voter turnout was low, and it was possible to argue that the outcome did not fully reflect the will of the people. I struggled with whether the American people were responsible. My conclusion, at the time, was that they were at least in part. Not because they all supported him, but because too many either supported him or chose not to oppose him. In a democracy, indifference is not neutral. It is a form of participation.
Then came 2020. Americans made a different choice and Trump lost. A correction was made, and that mattered. Democracies make mistakes, but in 2020 America corrected itself.
Then came 2024, and the same choice was presented again. This time Trump was elected with a majority of the vote. It is hard to argue now that the outcome is accidental or circumstantial. A pattern is not a mistake.
Writing this post reminded me of how screwed up the US electoral system is. It is essential to understand how the presidential election works. To be declared the presidential election winner, they have to win a majority of the electoral college. Every state gets a specific number of electoral votes based on population. All the votes are awarded to whoever got the most votes wins, except in Maine and Nebraska, which can split their votes. The four million American citizens in Porto Rico and other USA territories have no votes. This system means it is possible to win the presidency but lose the popular vote, which has been the case in almost every election where a Republican is.
Third-party candidates can change the outcome in a state when the race is close, as happened in 2015 when Jill Stein cost Hillary Clinton the presidency and gave President Trump. But there is another way that third parties can change the election results.
To win the presidency, one has to win the majority of the electoral college. There are 538 electoral votes, or “electors,” meaning a candidate needs to secure 270 to win. When there are only two candidates, this is always the case.
Even if there is a third-party candidate in a state, there is no issue as long as that candidate does not win the greatest number of votes. But if a third-party candidate wins one or more states, this could result in no candidate winning 270. Then the decision on who is elected president falls to the House of Representatives but in a bizarre way. Each state gets one vote. They have to choose between the top three candidates. For a candidate to be selected, they must receive an absolute majority of the votes, meaning 26 (50 states). If this does not happen before the 20th of January, the Speak of the House becomes president. It is the Senate that chooses the Vice President. Fifty-one votes are required. So it is possible to end up with a President and Vice President for different parties.
This bazaar system means that Wyoming, with a population of less than 600,000, would have the same vote as California, with a population of more than 39,000,000, for both President and Vice President. The most likely scenario is that the House would elect the Republican candidate and the Senate, the Democratic candidate.
No Labels
No Labels is the third party most likely to create a situation like in 2015 or even throw the choice to Congress. They are playing a dangerous game, in my opinion.
Green Party
Cornell West is the Green Party candidate, the party that previously nominated Jill Stein and Ralph Nader. I don’t get these people. Nader likely cost Gore the 2000 election and gave us eight years of Bush. Stein likely cost Clinton the election and gave us at least one term of Trump. h
Trump as a third-party candidate
If, for some unlikely reasons, the Republicans do not nominate Trump, he could run as a third-party candidate. He would surely get enough votes to throw the election to Congress and could be elected president by that body.
Year
President
Party
Percentage of Popular Vote
Electoral Votes
2020
Joe Biden
Democratic
51.31%
306
2016
Donald Trump
Republican
46.09%
304
2012
Barack Obama
Democratic
51.06%
332
2008
Barack Obama
Democratic
52.87%
365
2004
George W. Bush
Republican
50.73%
286
2000
George W. Bush
Republican
47.87%
271
1996
Bill Clinton
Democratic
49.24%
379
1992
Bill Clinton
Democratic
43.01%
370
1988
George H.W. Bush
Republican
53.37%
426
1984
Ronald Reagan
Republican
58.77%
525
Popular and Electoral Votes last ten elections
The popular vote can be affected by third parties, as in the case of Ross Perot, who ran in 1996 and 1992. Even with Jill Stein taking away enough votes to put Trump in the White House, Hillary Clinton won over 53% of the popular vote.
The situation in Israel is tearing me apart. I love Israel but despise the current government.
It appears that Netanyahu will do anything, and I mean anything, to stay in power. He was only form a coalition by bringing in the most extreme elements, and there are many. He formed a coalition with right-wing fanatics and religious fanatics, and some that are both. These people do not represent the majority of Israeli, one of the world’s most secular countries with a long democratic tradition. While admittedly, Israel is a Center-Right country, the current government is extreme. It has been turned loose by an immoral leader willing to destroy his legacy and even put Israel at risk in a quest to remain in power and relevant. He joins a sorry club featuring Trump, Putin, Xi, and many smaller players throughout the world.
The Plot to Create Greater Israel
The extreme right wants “Greater Israel,” and they don’t care what others think. They do not fear the scorn the world will bestow upon them because they believe they are on a holy mission. While some are motivated by ideology, others are motivated by greed and ego. They know they have Nethanyhu by the balls if he still has them left after his wife, Sarah, has taken her bite at his apple. Bibi knows that if the extremist don’t get their way, they will leave his coalition, and the government will fall resulting in a new election. If there is a new election, he will be out to spend the rest of his life on the dung heap of failed politicians. Recent polls clearly show. that result would be for him to lose. I would be the end of this megalomaniac’s political career and might mean he would end up in jail on the bribery charges he now faces. He would not be the first Israeli prime minister to end up in jail He won narrowly in the last election primarily because of the apathy of Israeli Arab voters and stupid politics on the part of the left-wing parties. He has to keep his coalition together, which is problematic. His margin is four, which is a frail hand..
Annexation of most of the West Bank
The West Bank is divided into three administrative/security zones as part of the Oslo Accords which was signed 30 years ago. Area A constitutes 18% of the West Bank land and more than 90% of the population. It is controlled in terms of administration and security by the Palestinian Authority. The major cities like Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jenin are located here. Area B represents about 22% of the land and has another 6% of the Arab population. Finally, we have Area C, which has 60% of the land but only 2% of the Arab Population. All Israeli settlements are in Area C.
There are close to 450,000 Israelis living in the West Bank. This does not count about 220,000 Israelis living in East Jerusalem, which Israel has already annexed, although this is not internationally recognized. But this number does not give an accurate picture of the situation. Most Israeli settlements are close to the border with Israel. Then there are places like Ma’ale Adumim, a prominent Jerusalem suburb with a population of 37,000. Should a two-state solution exist, it would undoubtedly be included as part of Israel in return for some land swap. Modi’in Illit has a population of 81,000 and is the most populist Israeli city in the West Bank. It is located on the border with Israel and would also be part of a land swap. Beitar Illit, with a population of 63,200, and finally, Ariel, with a population of 20,000 are all areas that would become part of Israel if there was a two-state solution.
Close to 200,000 Israelis live in areas that would be part of Israel if there was a two-state solution. That leaves about 250,000. Israelis living in the West Bank in areas that would not likely be part of Israel if there was a two-state solution. The number and size of the settlements have been growing, and these “facts on the ground” make it unlikely that Israel would ever agree to a two-state solution. This is not the only reason, however. After the experience of Gaza, Israel is unlikely to want a Palestinian state close to the significant population centers of Israel. The West Bank is located just 25 miles from Ben Gurion Airport. Note, there are more than 2.7 million arabs living in the West Bank. There are an additional 2.2 million Palestinians living in Gaza. On top of this, there are more than 2 million Arabs living. in Israel proper. So the total number of Arabs is about 7 million which is around the total number of Jews.
The current extremely right-wing Israeli government wants to annex Area C and even perhaps B. They will not do it all at once but will first annex the major areas in which I listed as being part of a land swap. Then, at some point, they will annex all of Area C and maybe B. The result would leave the Palestinians living in various enclaves/cities that would not be contiguous. The would become and Israeli version of the Bantustans that were establish by the white South African minority. This would mean that people going from one of the cities to another would have to cross through Israeli territory. This has been going on for some time, and I refer to this as the “slicing and dicing” of the West Bank. Israel would slowly turn Area A into a series of mini Gazas. Israel would control all the utilities, including water. The West Bank does not have an airport. Perhaps there would likely be a corridor to Jordan.
To pull this off, as well as many other things, the government is attempting to change the relationship between the executive/legislative branch and the courts. I fear this is creating an internal battle that could result in an actual civil war.
The only way out is for the opposition, Ganz and Lapis, to agree to form a collation with Netanyahu, which will probably also involve actions to terminate his trial. Then Bibi tells the extreme right to take a hike. I think this is the only way that Israel can survive. This could happen. I hope it does because I fear that there is not a lot of time left to prevent the ultimate destruction of the county I so love.
The ultimate destruction of Israel
Israel has been a strong democratic country. One that has treated is Arab minority rather well, actually. The occupation of the West Bank and Gaza became a cancer, a cancer that has metastasized. If Bibi government is able to do as I suspect, the young liberal people that are responsible for both Israels economic and military success will leave and create a whole that will not be filled by the extreme religious, Haredim not the ultra right. Israel is surrounded by enemies who will take advantage of this situation. Israels action will cost it the friendship and support of the USA and Europe. American Jew who almost equal Israeli jews in numbers will not come to Israel’s rescue.
I know it is a long shot but it is possible that in just two years the USA will have a democratic president. It would require that the Democrats win the majority of the House of Representatives. Then they could start an Impeachment of both Trump and Pence. I would think by that time, it would be easy to come up with many reasons to impeach Trump. It might be a bit harder with Pence but possible. Then the Democrats will have to win 60 seats in the Senate which is possible. If both Trump and Pence are impeached, the speaker of the House who would be a Democrat will become president.
I know this is very hard to imagine but is it harder than imagining that Donald Trump would become president of the USA and the most powerful man in the world?
Here are a few of my thoughts about the screwed up American Presidential Election system.
The USA Electoral College system makes no sense
I am not sure how many people understand how the electoral college works.It is actually very complicated but I am not going to go into all the details.Here are the key things to keep in mind.Almost (but not states) are winner takes all. For instance, California has the most votes at 55 and is a winner takes all state.So the number of electoral college votes is the same if a candidate gets 50.1% or 99.9%.In a state like California, which will vote Democratic, this has the effect of depressing the vote. Many people feel that their vote will not be needed to push the democratic candidate over the top or to give the republican candidate a chance.So this results in lower turnout and can affect other important elections or state propositions.
It is possible as in the case of Gore versus Bush, that one candidate, Gore, could end up with the majority of the popular vote while another candidate, Bush, could end up with the majority of the Electoral vote.This is nuts.
If there is a tie in the electoral vote, the president is selected by the House of Representatives even if one of the candidates has a clear majority.The House can choose any of the top three candidates without consideration of the popular vote.
The Primaries drive the two parties to the extremes
Very few people vote in the primaries and they are usually those that feel the most passionately about their positions which are usually to the extreme right or left.This is forcing greater and greater division in the USA.
Favorable/Unfavorable polling is too simplistic
Just asking if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a candidate does not tell you enough.I may dislike one candidate but hate another.I would rather see a scale from 1-10 where 1 is strongly disliked and 10 is strong dislike.In the current election, I think that one would see Clinton in at a 4 overall and Trump at 2.
Voting No
I would like to change the voting system so instead of voting for someone, you would have the option of voting against someone.The effect of voting against someone would be to remove a vote they already got.It would be possible to end up with a negative number.
There should be a consistent system of voting across the country
Everyone should have the right to vote by mail at least one month in advance.We should have a national holiday on the date the presidential election is held.Polls should be open at least 12 hours.
Presidential Terms should not be concurrent
Presidents should not be able to run for a second term while still in office.They have too much to do running the country and being in office gives them too strong a platform.
I have been carrying on a dialog with some Facebook “friends” about this question. Many of my FB “friends” are pro-Bernie including one of my sons. I thought I would take the opportunity to state clearly my position and concerns.
Bernie, the man versus Bernie’s ideas
Bernie’s fans want big change.So do I.We have a dysfunctional government that is not dealing with the significant problems facing the USA such as a decaying infrastructure, massive financial inequality, climate change,a broken healthcare system, too much money in politics,terrorism, aging population, automation, racial divides, and drugs just to name a few.
Yes, I too long for massive change.I support many of Bernie’s objectives although not his tactics and nor him.I don’t like the guy much either.
Big Money in Politics
Bernie is against big money in politics.Well, the person most responsible for this is Ralph Nader.Nader had no chance to become President, but that did not keep him from running to as a third party candidate to the left of Gore.The result was President Bush, who then appointed Roberts to the Supreme Court and along came Citizen’s United.
Bernie has no chance to win, but he is damaging Hilary
Bernie is running against Hilary even though he has no real chance of winning.All he is doing is weakening her as a general election candidate and causing her to waste precious time and money on a Primary when she should be able to focus on the general election.
It is clear to me the Bernie is the same kind of egotist as Nader.If I had any doubt, Bernie’s very expensive trip to the Vatican resolved that question.
Some of the Bernie folks just want to blow things up
I have a feeling that some of the Bernie fans don’t mind a demagog like Trump winning.They think it will lead to some popular uprising.Well, folks, it is the other side that has the guns.This is just crazy thinking.
The key is down-ticket
If we want to change, the left has to take back the Senate and hopefully the House.Hilary knows that is and working to make this happen.She is raising money for down-ticket candidates.Sander’s is spending his money on trips to Rome.
Don’t care much for Hil
lary
She is not my favorite person.I voted for Obama in the 2008 primary although I now think I made a mistake because he screw things up so badly in his first two years that we got a Republican House and then eventually a Republican Senate.
So sadly, she is the only thing between us and President Trump.Yes, I know that the Bernie people think their candidate has a better chance against Trump because of some polls.Well, that is just because people don’t know much about Bernie.That wouldn’tbe true after Trump got finished with him.
For some time, I have been thinking that the next president of the USA might not be currently running for office. Perhaps this has been just wishful thinking. I can’t imagine the possibility of Donald Trump as president. Frankly, it scares me. While I can imagine Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office, I don’t find it that appealing. Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz don’t seem to have a chance, and I doubt that they would be effective leaders.Cruz also scares me.
So who could be the next president, the one that is not yet running? Well, it is the current Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan and here are two scenarios that put him into office.
A Brokered Convention
If none of the Republican candidates gets a majority of the delegates before the convention, then it is possible that that a candidate that did not run in the primaries could be elected. I will spare you the details about how this would happen. While there are some possible candidates, I think Paul Ryan has the best shot. Then, of course, he would have to compete with the Democratic Candidate, which will be most likely Hillary Clinton.He would have a good chance of winning especially if various Clinton scandals get traction.
A Third Party throws the Election to the House
The constitution is clear that to be elected President and Vice President, one has to have a majority of the electrical college. The only way to not have this happen is to have more than two candidates running for office with a third candidate getting enough votes to deprive either of the other two candidates a simple majority although I guess the Electoral Collage could be evenly split.In this case, the decision on who will be the next president is made by the House, which very likely will continue to be controlled by the Republicans after this next election.If this happens, each state gets one vote. The representatives of the 39 states that have more than one Representative decide amongst themselves who they would vote for. If a state cannot reach a decision, they cannot vote. Please note that small states like Wyoming, Rhode Island, etc. have as much to say as California and Texas. The House has to select on of the top three candidates.A simple majority vote by the Senate determines who will be Vice President. Once again, small states have the same vote as large states. However, the Senate may only choose between the top two Vice Presidential nominees. The House may have a Republican majority while the Senate could very well have a Democratic majority.This would mean that the President and the Vice President could be from different parties.
There are many ways this situation could happen.One is for Mike Bloomberg to run and take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic Candidates to throw the election to the House.If Trump is the Republican Nominee, I think the House will elect Bloomberg. Not sure who the Senate would select as Vice President.The other way this could come about would be for Trump to be denied the Republican nomination and decide to run as a third party candidate. He could take enough votes away from both the Republican and Democratic candidate to throw the election to House.In this case, the Republican Candidate would probably be elected President.
Trump wins and gets Impeached immediately
Trump is very scary and is capable of anything. It is not responsible to take a chance on what this thug would do with the power of the Presidency. Trump and his Vice President could be impeached and removed from office soon after getting there if the Democrats and Republicans in the Congress agreed to work together to make this happen. With these two people gone, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, would become president. This is the second scenario where Ryan becomes President.
Hillary gets into legal trouble and Biden steps in
I believe (but I’m not 100% sure) that if Hillary had to resign as a candidate before the election because of some scandal or legal action, andafter getting more than 50% of the votes, a candidate that was not running could be chosen by the convention.Of course, the convention could select Bernie but most of the delegates will be in the Hillary camp, and I don’t think they would go for it.So it will be Biden to the rescue.If Hillary is selected by the Convention and then resigns after, I would think her name would remain on the ballot. The electoral college would vote for a candidate selected by the Democratic Party.Once again, I believe that it would be Biden.
So there you have it, there is a reasonable possibility that the next president of the United States will be Mike Bloomberg, Paul Ryan or Joe Biden.
Both parties want to get the Latino vote. Rubio will be the Republican VP nominee. Not sure which Castro brother will be the Democratic nominee.
Trump will form a third party
He is getting bored and realizes he can not win even the Republican Nomination so he will get out of the Republican race claiming that the republican establishment has ganged up on him.He will form a third party with his only objective being to get in the national debates like Ross Perot. He will have a female VP candidate running with him. Not sure who.
The Republican Nominee with be Romney
None of the current candidates will a majority in the primaries.Thus, the nomination will go to the convention where Romney will be brokered by the establishment once the delegates are released.
The Democratic Nominee will be Clinton
Sanders is not really a challenge.She has the nomination sewed up. She could loose to Romney but with Trump running as a third party candidate, he will not get enough votes.
Congress just gave themselves a two months vacation after just having come back from a month’s vacation. That made me think about how we can get our government to actually work.
The guys (there were no gals) that designed are Federal System of Government were pretty smart but they could not anticipate the kind of problems we now have where the main job of Congress is being reelected. This is particularly an issue with the House of Representatives which has to run for office every two years. For years I have been trying to figure out how it would ever be possible for Congress to change the election laws that so very much benefit those in office but today I had a breakthrough.
Here is my proposal:
Members of the house of representatives can serve as often as elected, but they cannot serve two terms in a row. Those that serve a term of two years will then receive a paid two-year vacation including all the benefits. They can spend as much of this time campaigning for the next round of elections, or they can spend it at the beach. Senators get elected for terms of six years. At the end of the term, they can not run again but have to wait two years. During this two years, they get paid and get all their benefits. They can use this time to prepare for the next election cycle, or they can sit on the beach. There will be a number of minimum days that members of the house and members of the senate have to work during their terms. If they fail to put in the days, they do not get paid for the time after their term expires.
The President can run for as many terms as he/she wants but can not run for consecutive terms. The President will get paid the normal salary and have full benefits but, of course, can not live in the White House unless his spouse in the next elected president.
Supreme Court Judges will be paid ten million dollars to retire when they reach the age of 80. That amount will be reduced by one million dollars every year they continue to serve.
The republicans are rightfully in trouble with the hispanic voters for their ridiculous behavior with respect to immigration. The only way a republican nominee would have a chance to become president is if they could split the hispanic vote. Unless they make a major change in their objection to comprehensive immigration reform, the only way they could do this is to nominate a hispanic for president or vice president. It is doubtful that there is a hispanic candidate that could make it through the republican primaries to become that party’s nominee. But I can well imagine that the VP candidate could be hispanic and maybe even a female hispanic.
So the way for the Democrats to neutralize this strategy would be for them to nominate a hispanic for vice president too.
