Two Thirds Done

Thoughts and experiences of an eighty one year old Wild Duck.

Avram Miller by the sea
EN | IT

587 posts since 2006

Category: Thoughts about the Media Industry

How media industry is impacted by technology

  • iPad Day One

    I have spent about 24 hours with my iPad (well not really….I did not take it to bed).  I have found it to be a profound experience for me personally.  For those of you the regularly read my blog (all two of you), you know that I have been working closely with computers since 1966.  My first computer, a PDP-7 had less memory the the photos I take with my camera.  The first computer I designed (the ill fated Profession 350 from Digital Equipment Corp), had the first winchester hard drive in a personal computer. It was 5mega bytes.  Now I am hold in my hand a iPad with 64 gigs of flash memory.

    It too me about two minutes to get my iPad at the Apple store.  I had a reservation.  There was a long line of people that did not make a reservation.

    Lots of my friends are asking me about my experience with the iPad.  It is hard to express because the most profound part of the iPad is really what one experiences in the interaction.    I have to use the word intimate to describe it.  While I think the iPad is a work in progress, one can really see/feel the potential of this kind of device.  For sometime I have felt the iPad would become the black-hole of media and all media would be sucked into it. We will watch movies and TV shows , read books, play games and listen to music on it.  But as far as I can see most applications that we use to get information from web searching to maps will be a better experience on the iPad than on a normal computer.  This will certainly be true for shopping.  And I think the iPad will bring back the opportunity for brand advertising.  It will be very interesting to see what place in my life the iPad will take.  I know it will between my Mac-book Pro and my iPhone but how much it will take from both is still not clear.

    But the iPad in this current generation can not replace my desktop or notebook computer.  It will not be able to do that until it really supports multi tasking.  For instance, when I am reading a email on the iPad (love the mail program) which has a link and I click on that link I find myself in the browser and the mail program is closed down.  I have to push the home button to get back to the main page and the select the mail program.  I also got a blue tooth keyboard.  I set it up in less than two minutes.  It works wonderfully but since there is no mouse I have to reach over to the iPad’s screen and touch what I would normally click on with the mouse.

    I managed to use logmein on the iPad so that I could actually run all my desktop mac software remotely.  This is important if I am to go on a trip without my mac notebook.  I have some programs like Quicken that are not on the iPad but which I really need.  This worked pretty well although I did not like the iPad client very much.

    I like so many other’s wish there was a front facing camera so I could use the iPad when I do skype with video.  Skype with voice worked fine.  Syncing with iTunes turned out to be a pain (I am really getting to hate iTunes),  For some reason applications that I had removed from the iPad when I first sync up kept coming back.  The transfer rate between my Macbook pro and the iPad seemed very slow.  Transferring photos took a lot longer on the iPad than the iPhone but I suspect that is because the iPad takes higher resolution  versions of the photos.  It took me a while to figure out how to move TV shows and movies.  The iPad uses the same format as the Apple TV which is not what your iPhone or iPod uses or what your desktop or notebook uses.  You have to get iTunes convert the video to the right format (or you can use programs like Handbreak or VideoDrive2).

    I have purchased Pages and Numbers but have not tried them yet.  I was delighted to see that I can read my kindle books with no problem.  I will probably continue to by books on the kindle at least for a while.

    I wish I had the patience to by the 3G model especially since it is the only model that has true GPS.  But I could not wait and I also think my usage will be primarily in places where Wifi is available.  I can also use a MiFi.

    It was impressive that all my iPhone apps seem to work.  I was glad that I could use my Sling box application.  Now the iPad is my portable TV.

  • The iPad: Not quiet the future but getting close

    I have been waiting for the iPad announcement for sometime.  The wait was good because it allowed me to use my imagination thinking about what it might be.  As my readers know, I have been working with computers since 1966 and for many years, I was able to even had some non trivial effect on the development of the PC industry particularly with respect to the development of residential broadband.  I had a vision of the connected PC becoming a new medium for entertainment, education and communication and commerce.  It pretty much played out as I thought, spoke and wrote about in the 90s.  Wireless technologies were just beginning to make themselves felt when I left my position as Vice President of Business Development at Intel Corp. in April of 1999.  I had one of the first Blackberries and installed one of the first wifi networks at the World Headquarters of The Avram Miller Company (me and three assistance).  At that time, I thought that the PC  and MAC would move into the entertainment center of homes.  But things did not play out as I thought. I mean I could personally build a home media center but both the cost and more importantly the complexity made the development of the PC based home media center out of the reach of most consumers.  And of course, Microsoft was not really the company to lead this development.  My former company, Intel, lacked both the vision and the ability to do much (even thought it was pretty much mission critical for Intel in my opinion).  Apple  would not try to do much in this area because given the complexity issues and the need to deal with cable companies etc, they would not be able to deliver on their brand promise.  It was a good decision for Apple.

    In the meantime, we had move and more of the computer applications moving to the Cloud.  I became convinced that we would ended with a number of devices in the home that connected to each other via the internet.  Last year, I got an iPod and also moved from the PC to the Mac.  I could no longer take all the problems I got using Microsoft software.  Now I am Microsoft free.  But I did not expect to have a trans-formative experience using the iPhone.  I thought that the iPhone would be a utilitarian product for me.  It would be used to keep my calendar, address book and deal with email as well as phone communications.  And yes, it would be my iPod but I was not that much into using an iPod type device.  Instead, I found that it was a major form of entertainment.  Even with the small screen, I would watch TV shows, movies etc when I  traveled.  And I loved the intimacy of the touch screen.  I began to realize that this was indeed personal computing and that the subjective relationship between myself and this piece of equipment was different than I had with a notebook or desktop computer.  My iPhone also started becoming my controller for things like the lighting in my home and  the control of my AV system.  I noticed that I cared my iPhone with me all the time.

    So when I began to hear the rumors of an iPad, I realized that this might be the device that would really transform entertainment.  In the 90s I was found of saying that the PC was the Black Hole of Technology. That anything that came close to the PC (like word processors) would fall into the PC and become part of the PC.   The iPhone and devices like it has become the black hole of the pocket or purse and are sucking functionality into it like camera, phone, utilities etc.  So would the iPad become the black hole for media?  I think it can be.  I beleive the exerience of watching entertainment with a device that you can hold but more importantly that you can touch will change the perspective on the entertainment experience in very powerful ways.

    But I was also disappointment in some of the specs of the iPad and wonder if Apple is making trade offs that are based on getting the product out at the right price and more importantly at the right quality or are they based on business strategies that limit the iPad to benefit other Apple products.  For instance the lack of a face forward camera means it can not be used for video conferencing.  But I think that is a very important capability for this product.  I want to be able to communicate with my kids and grand kids that way as I do now on my mac book pro (or mac book air when I travel).  I also think that video communications will be important in playing network based games or even sharing entertainment experiences with friends.    I am very interested in the book reading experience.  I use a Kindle all the time and love it.   I  was disappointed that there was no real GPS capability.

    I think the iPad will be a great product for seniors like my father who will soon be 87 and has some difficulty dealing with his PC.  But unfortunately, you have to have a PC or Mac if you have an iPad so you can run iTunes making things more complicated.  I hope there is a work around for this.

    Anyway, I can’t wait to get my iPad.  Not sure if I will wait for the 3G model.

  • Rob Glaser steps down: The end of an era

    Rob Glaser steps down. I have known Rob since in 1992 when we was leading Microsoft’s multimedia business and I was VP of business development at Intel and tasked amongst other things with working with Microsoft and Rob to develop a number of consumer initiatives.  One of these was the interactive set top box which still has not really happened but that project ultimately lead to the the development of the cable modem albeit without Microsoft participation.  I was sorry when Microsoft removed Rob from his position but it ended up being a great thing for Rob who ended up leaving Microsoft and starting Real Networks.  I found Rob very smart, articulate and driven but not an easy man to work with.  I learned a lot from him in those early days of the Internet.  Rob has also been a carrying and responsible person that has contributed much through charity and political work.

    What ever you think of Real Networks (I love using its Rhapsody service myself) and what ever you think of Rob, we owe him much as one of the true pioneers of the Internet.  Rob was one of the few (I count myself in this small list) that in the early 90’s understood the power of the Internet and how it would transform traditional media.   Thanks Rob.

  • I am not a collector

    About 30 years ago, I bought my first painting. As a musician (sort of) I was always puzzled about visual art where one copy of a work exists or in the case of photos and prints, as small series. With music, the more people that have a copy of a work, the more successful one is. But with visual art, success is kind of linked to the resale value of a work (and positive critical review). People that acquire visual art are called collectors. But people with a large library of music are generally known as music lovers. Visual art takes up a lot of room. Music takes up very little room and now with digital distribution it takes up no room (I am a big fan of Rhapsody). I once visited the home of a senior executive at a major media company. This man was an art collector. His house was filled with wonderful and very valuable art. I told him that I had been buying art but there were almost no suitable wall space left in my house. I asked him what he did when he got in that situation and he said, “it is easy, you just buy a bigger house”. Over the years I bought more art. I did not know and still do not know much about art or artists. I just bought pieces I loved but also integrated well within the space I had for them. Being the businessman that I was, I always gave some thought for the value of the art that I bought and have been good at negotiating discounts from art dealers who normally have a very high mark up. My wife (I can’t mention her name because her goal is to be the last person you cannot find via Google), loves visual art at lot and actually as a graduate of an art school, knows a lot about it. So we sometimes visit galleries. About four years ago, we randomly walked by a gallery in Chelsea NYC, and I saw a piece that really drew me to it. It was “The Flood” by Barry Frydlender.The Flood Not only did I love it but I was fascinated to learn about how Frydlender created it using hundreds of digital images taken from the same place at different times. I did not realize that you could actually create art with Photoshop. I bought that this piece for what I thought was a lot of money but since then Frydlender has gotten a lot of recognition including a show at the MOMA in NYC. His work has gone up a lot in value and I would not feel comfortable spending that kind of money for art now. I ended up over the years buy three more works of Israeli photographers. Recently, I was asked if I would lend these four works to the Magnes Museum for as six month show they were putting on of Israeli artists in celebration of the 60th anniversary of Israel. I agreed of course having had some guilt for a while that so few people could actually see the art that I own. My wife and I went to the opening of this show and then to a reception. People kept coming up to us and saying, “when did you start becoming a collector” or things like that. I guess it was meant as a compliment. Being a collector must be some kind of status symbol. I wanted to scream “I am not a collector” and run. I guess when anything is in a limited supply those that buy these items an be called collectors. But what about the digital word. I have a friend (btw he is almost 70 year old). He discovered bit torrent and how you download music and videos for the net for free (pirate). He has been building up a vast library of films and feeling hard disk after hard disk with them. Would he be called a collector of films? At the same show where my photos are being shown is an Israeli performance arts named Sigalit Landau. Her work is recorded and sold on DVD. I loved this work which I saw briefly at a lecture at the opening. So I looked it up and it is sold as an addition of nine. That means there are only nine DVD’s. Obviously, if you make nine you can make nine hundred or nine thousand. It makes some sense that there might be a limit on the productions of various visual art works that actually have a physical component. For instance, “The Flood” is a very big piece and hard and expensive to reproduce. But limiting the production of a DVD is totally artificial. The buyer is paying for scarcity. The buyer is paying so that someone else cannot have the work. I wonder how long this business model will last. Yes, Sigalit needs to earn money or her work but what will keep someone from ripping the DVD and putting it up on the Net. So will Sigalit who often performs in the nude have to look or advertising as away to earn money. Will we see her up on YouTube with an add across her naked body? What will be the business model or art when art is digital? And what will happen to the collectors

  • If you want an audience jump out of a building.

     I think it was around 1996 that I declared that Advertising was the Killer App. of the Internet at presentation I made at the National Association of Broadcasters.  I still believe that although, in reality people to people communication is the killer application and advertising is just the way must companies try to monetize that (I emphases “try”).  But because you have an audience, it does not mean you can effectively advertise.  Just stand on the ledge of a building and threaten to jump.  You will soon have a large audience but even if you were a logo’ed shirt, you will have a hard time turning this into an opportunity to make money.  And such is the problem of MySpace (which I don’t really care for) and Facebook (which I really like).  Effective advertising on the internet is a challenge for most.  It works well for search as has been demonstrated by Google but that is direct response advertising.  Brand advertising is even a greater challenge to this new medium.  Heavy does a great job (I am on the board and this post is not really about plugging heavy)  but  that is helped because the company is provides short form entertainment content.  I believe that social networks can make money of course with advertising, just not the kind of money that would justify the prices that have and will probably be paid for their stock.  But then again I said that about Google.

  • Video and me

    In 1966, when I was working on bio feedback (brain waves), my friend and colleague, Peter Harris, and I got the idea (actually I think it was Peter that had the idea) to see if we could put up letters on a screen.  At that time we use an ASR-33 teletype as are main input and output device (think of a kind of typewriter if you can remember them).  We had never seen a character on a screen.  In fact we had no screens on the computer.  What we did have was a telescope that could store images using a long lasting phosphor and we had digital to analog converters (which I think I designed and installed).  Bottom line was we figured out how to put up words on the screen (which was a round little thing) and it was amazing. 

    In 1970, I used head per track disk which probably had less than a Meg of memory and which was developed for instant repay for sporting events, to put up whole pages on TV sets which were used by nurse to monitor patients in an ICU.  We developed some kind of character generator to take our ASCII codes and turn them into a small bit map that could be loaded on the disk. 

    In 1975 when I ran a division of Mennen Greatbatch which was responsible for computer supported medial systems, I used a PDP-11 and developed a dual access memory unit which could be read be a raster scanner that created a display.  There was one bit in memory for every bit on the display.  We developed software character generators.  It worked pretty well. 

    In 1981, when I was Group Manger for Professional Computers at Digital Equipment, I had my group develop a shared memory display because it lets us have software created characters. It was a big fight inside Digital because every one else wanted to use hardware generated characters.   

    In 1989, after I had started what became Intel Capital I invested in a company called Digital F/X which was founded by my good friend, Steve Mayer, who was the co founder of Atari.  He wanted to bring to the desk top advanced post production capabilities especially special effects.  Apple invested in the company as did KP.  I got Intel to invest because I had and idea to develop a graphical user interface let the MAC which would be connected to the chips we would develop.  We would put a layer of software between above OS so the OS would sit between two environments that Intel would develop together. But Andy Grove shot that down.  I got so pissed off I sent him a memo calling him the Mick Jagger of the computer world (trying to make today last).  Did not help my career very much. 

    In the very early 90’s I continued my interest in displays but now the challenge was video.  I thought that we could find ways to put video on PC’s but other than for educational training most people at Intel thought that was a stupid idea.  But thank God for
    Moore’s law because we began to get the computing power we needed to play back encoded video.       

    In 1993, Matt Miller (CTO of GI) and I realized that we could use the cable network to provide a high speed network to PC’s in homes.  And the cable modem as we now know it was born.  I thought that video would be a key capability and we demonstrated video downloaded to a computer over a cable network at the Western Cable Show in 1993 and later at the 1994 PC Expo (and of course it was Andy Grove who did the demo).   

    In 1996, Intel and Creative Artist Agency (CAA) put together a “demo lab” to showcase the PC and broadband internet as the beginning of a new medium.  We though mistakenly that the content for this new medium would come from the traditional media industry especially the talent.  This turned out not to be the case but I did make a lot of interesting contacts in the media industry. 

    In 1998, I joined the board of King World Productions which was the leading syndicate of first run TV shows.  For instance we distributed Oprah.  I was asked to join the board by Herb Allen (Allen&Co) to help the company understand the implications of the changes in technology and help develop a long term strategy.  Soon after I joined, I realized that in a few years it would be possible to encoded TV quality video on a PC and I figured people would store TV shows to view later and would skip the commercials.  This was around the time that Tivo and Replay both came to market.  Since the TV affiliates that represented the build of King Worlds customers were totally dependent on advertising, I thought it was wiser to sell the company than to try to build it our further.  We sold it for three billion dollars to CBS who shortly later was acquired by Viacom.   

    In 1999 I invested in Heavy, the leader in broadband entertainment for males 18-34.  We started with animation and small video windows short form.   

    2007, I am glad to say that Heavy is doing very well and is probably the leading independent video site on the net.  And we now have internet video on multiple platforms including cell phones.  

    So for me it has been 40 years since Pete Harris and I put those first bits on the screen and spelled out the word “test”.  We have clearly made so much progress in developing the technology to create and distribute video content.  But I am still wondering about how the really interesting an compelling content will be greated.  Soon the novelty of having video everywhere will fade. 

  • Joost: The Entrepreneur as a Brand

    Joost, an internet video distribution site has gain an amazing amount of attention. Recently it raised more than 45 million dollars and has a valuation close to 200 million.  Joost is in a closed beta (I have been using it for a while).  The company owns no content, wires or towers. I doubt (but do not know) that it really has any technical advantages.  So then why are companies like Viacom and CBS signing on? It is the power of the Entrepreneurs brand.  Niklas Zennstrøm and Janus Friis are the founders of Skype and before that Kaaza. We have always had strong CEO/Founder brands like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Andy Grove but they stayed with the companies they started.  These guys build and sell companies.  And while there are so many video distributions sites, they will not make it with out great content and consumer awareness.  These are the guys that have the “juice” And in any case, see if you can get a beta.  Joost is certainly an example of a 21st media company and while companies like this may or may not succeed in getting a return for their investors (this one will if history is any indication), they will further break the back of traditional TV networks.  Heavy, on whose board I serve is on Joost and their programs look great. 

    By the way, last week, Roger King, was honored by The International Radio and Television Society Foundation.   Roger is the CEO of King World Productions and CBS Enterprises.  King World is the leading distributor of syndicated television and distributes such shows as Oprah. King world started by distributing The Little Rascals.   I was on the board of that company when we sold it to CBS in 1999 for 2.5 billion dollars.   

  • The 1849 Gold Rush and the Internet Bubble

    Mike Hirshland sent me a story on Valley Wag about Industry Standard pre burst (that is post bubble). It is interesting and you can read it here. It caused me to reflect on another time in this history of the bay area, the 1949 Gold Rush. Here can read about that here if you do not remember the stories (which are great). Gold was discovered in 1849 North of SF. Sailors abandoned their “secure” jobs to go prospect for Gold. Boats where abandoned in the bay. Well most of the people trying to prospect for gold made nothing but there was a clear group of people that sold provisions and tools to these people for a while. Some of them made real money and some of them like Sutro invested that money into land in SF (which became a very large city at the time). Even members of my family arrive in 1872 to sell leather goods, tobacco and clothing but they were not as smart as Levi Strauss. My family is still in SF by the way and I even have a great great grandfather buried here. So out of the chaos of the gold rush came a real city with a real economy. Thank God for greed or I might have been born in the Ukraine (which was not the best place at the time to bring up a Jewish boy).

  • Communitainment (I bet this word never makes it to the dictionary)

    Someone I very much respect sent me a link to an article on Ad Week which you can read here.  It is definitely worth reading.  In general I agree with what was written but I do want to point out that what we observe at any point in time is the sum of many waves of change which have different time constant.  For instance, watching TV has a very long time constant. But reality TV has a shorter one.  Things come and go.  And the closer you build a strategy to the youth market the faster the time constant. And unfortunately, it is easier to see changes in the past than changes in the future and it is very easy to mistake transition for the future.   

    What I am struggling with is the clutter on the net and the issue of loyalty or lack of loyalty.  It takes time to get a return on investment

     

  • It’s all about me

    Just when I thought that blogging with the height of self indulgence I learn of a new capability. Using ning one can create their own social network. I just started my own social network. I called it AllAboutMe. Actually l find ning pretty interesting. What do you think?