Two Thirds Done

Thoughts and experiences of an eighty one year old Wild Duck.

Avram Miller by the sea
EN | IT

587 posts since 2006

Category: Political Views

  • Introducing the Four Day Work Week

    As some of you know, I plan to run for President via Americans Elect if nominated.  I will be posting some of the planks of my campaign platform
    Here is one:  Introducing the Four Day Work Week
    As some of you know, I plan to run for President via Americans Elect if nominated.  I will be posting some of the planks of my campaign platform from time to time.  Here is one – Introduce the Four Day Work Week.
    I hate to be the one to tell you, but the jobs that were lost in the debacle that  resulted in part from  the real estate bubble,  are not coming back.  The combination of globalization, increased productivity resulting from technological advances and  resource depletion  are  permanent.  Rather than dealing with that reality, we masked it by the using of easy credit.  So rather than having growth we simulated growth.  That allowed Americans to buy homes they could not afford with debt that they could not pay back. Building these homes created many jobs but those jobs could not be sustained.  In the mean time, increasing real estate values allowed the rest of us to feel more wealthy  and more comfortable spending our savings or, even worse, borrowing from the equity of our homes.  I think you probably already know all this.  But our government leaders are telling us (both parties) that we just have to return to growth and everything thing will be ok.  The two parties do not disagree with the end objective – growth.  They just disagree on how to get there. And they are both wrong.
    So if we are going to have 10%  unemployment (it’s really more like 20% but we don’t count the people that had given up looking for work), more or less permanently (although will likely get worse), then what does this mean for our country?  If so many people are unemployed permanently, things are going to get ugly. Unemployment insurance can not maintain standards of living.  And unemployment insurance will not be extended for ever.  So many families will find themselves with greatly reduced incomes or even no income.  Family not directly effected will fear that they will be next to lose their jobs.  This means that in addition to living with great anxiety, they will also be willing to work longer hours for less pay and less benefits which, while increasing profitability for their employers, will have the effect of actually reducing job growth.  Not all parts of society will be effected in the same way.  For instance young people and in particular young people of  minorities will be even more effected.  You only have to look to the recent riots in the UK to see how well this works out.
    So is there an alternative?  Yes, we can go back to the promise of a four day work week, something I was told to expect when I was growing up in the 50s and 60s.   If we reduced the work week to 32 hours,  after a period of adjustment, everyone  could be employed.  Yes, we would all be earning 20% less but we would have a full extra day in our lives.  This in effect would add increase our days off by 50%.  We would stop having to worry about losing our jobs.  We would once again have some bargaining power with employers.  We would have not to be fearful of gangs of young men who have never found work.

    So rather than think about a reduction of your salary by 20%, think about all the great things you will be able to do with the extra day.

    Here is a pretty good video talking about this concept.

    New Dream Mini-Views: Visualizing a Plenitude Economy from Center for a New American Dream on Vimeo.

     

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  • Bridges not Bombs

    It seems like a lot of people,  particularly those in government, are confused about the difference between building a bomb and building a bridge.  A bomb does not have much function other than to blow up people.  I guess you could argue that in the right circumstance it might provide the owner with some protection against an enemy,  but I think it would be hard to really make the case that the majority of weapons have a utility.   Given that our government is running  about a 40% deficit (it takes in revenues that are about 60% of what it spends), we must borrow money to build the bomb.  Now, I don’t actually think we should build bridges ( although I think we should repair the ones we have) but I do think there are things that we could do to create value and actually pay back the money and interest we  have to borrow to build to such things.  A great example would be a national smart grid to improve the distribution of electric power.

    It seems that the government and our citizens cannot tell the difference   between borrowing money to create value and borrowing money to destroy value.  What if we used our soldiers and the industries that provide materials to conduct wars (remember the USA spends more money in defense then all the other countries of the world combined) to actually build things that would pay for themselves over time?  This kind of borrowing can be  supported by our economy.  There is a difference between borrowing money to finance a vacation and borrowing money to get a college education, but it appears our political leaders cannot see this difference.

    There is an other example of lack of understanding.  Government officials and TV pudents talk about how much money  America corporations  have in their treasuries.  They say companies are not spending this money because their is no consumer demand for more of their products. But there is another reason that seems to escape all these talking heads.  So much of the profits of American companies were made overseas and are not subject to US tax until they are brought back.  So if  an American company wants to use this cash to invest in the USA they first have to pay about 40% in tax.   Given our situation we should allow companies to bring this money back without tax- provided they invest the money in creating US jobs or  pay dividends to their shareholders.  This should get the money in circulation.  And speaking of dividends, they are taxed twice. First they are taxed at the corporate level and then at the individual level.  Not only should they be taxed only once but frankly, I don’t think they should be taxed at all.

  • The story of USA Industries and its new CEO

    You have been brought in to run what had been one of the most successful companies in the world, USA Industries.  The previous CEO had made a number of strategic and tactical mistakes the resulted in tarnishing the companies brand, reduced revenues, poor relations with strategic partners, and depressed employees.  Not only that but this CEO committed the company a number of very expensive project that would be hard to get out of but which would add no value to the companies balance sheet and would in fact reduce the balance sheet.  In order to deal with  the short fall in revenue and the increase in expenses the previous CEO borrowed increasing amounts of money.  The money was spent to keep the company going during this difficult but largely self generated times.   They main interest the former CEO had been to keeping his large institutional investors happy.  He did that by throwing lavish parties,  and giving them discounts on the companies products. He was also concerned  with how the top rank of his company saw him.  He did not want them to question his actions so he kept giving them bonuses.  When the old CEO’s contract was up,many members of the  board felt they needed a different kind of CEO.  They wanted someone young  energetic that would break out of the patterns established by his predecessor.  Other members of the board were concerned about making any changes and felt that business would just come back if they just gave it time.  But they also felt that there should be substantial cut backs in the companies spending.  One of the old guard was also considered for the role.  Both candidates presented their ideas to the board.  Enough of the board believed it was time to change course and so the young man was brought in as the new CEO.

    He moved with his wife and daughters to the city where the company was headquartered.  The company dominated the city and it could really be said that it was a company town.  The new CEO rapidly found that he knew little about how the company really operated.  To make matters worse, he had almost no experience working in the companies industry and had never really run a company before.  He was more like a staff person and had spent a many years in academia.  He had many ideas about what to do but he lacked confidence in implementing them.  Most of the key employees had been with the company for decades and did not really want to change the way the company operated.  Some of the department heads were close to members of the board and a number of them had direct relationships with large  shareholders.

    The new CEO realized that he would have to cut back on expenses and reduce the borrowing or face  the possibility of bankruptcy in the future.  But he was scared that if he took the actions that were required like laying off many employees, killing off some products that were not profitable and getting out of the very expensive long term projects started by the former CEO, the financial markets would react and  both the stock price would go down and the cost of borrowing money would increase.   The company was facing ever increasing competition from an other company.  This company, Asian Enterprises  had been around a lot longer and was going no place for the longest time.  But then there was a management transition.  A much younger and smarter group came to run the company. They believe that there was great opportunity in the market especially since  USA Industries was not really investing in new products and manufacturing processes.  They were right.

    The members of the board of directors of USA Industries grew unhappy with the CEO they had chosen.  The members that had not wanted this man as CEO kept telling the other members what a mistake it was to have brought this inexperienced person on.  In the mean time the financial markets began to realize that the company was really in trouble.  The stock price started falling.  Many employees had their retirement funds in 401Ks with large amounts of  company’s stock.  Senior people saw their stock options become valueless.  There was a growing concern that the company would not be able to continue to borrow money and if it could,  it would be at higher rates. The greatest fear was someday the loans would come due and the company would not have the funds to pay them back.  So the new CEO began to cut back.  He started by cutting R&D even though that meant that the company would not have competitive products in the future.  In the past the company was active in bringing in young people and giving them training.  This program was cut.   He cut salaries and benefits for employees but because he was scared of the senior staff, he exempted them and in fact gave many of the salary increases hoping to buy their loyalty.

    Things just got worse.  So the CEO sold off some of his factories.  He sold the  real estate the company owned and leased it back.  Over time, Asian Enterprise got even more successful. They were a tough competitor and very focused.  Their employees  were willing to invest in the companies stock which caused it to increase in value.  This allowed Asian to begin to buy other companies and increase its expansion over time.    The board of directors of USA Industries began to realize that they had to replace the new CEO.  But now they were really fighting in the board room.  Many wanted to find someone that could promise to bring the company back to its old position as a leader in its industry.  But others knew that this no longer was possible.  They wanted someone that could reorganize the company. Give it a new mission that was achievable.  Get it scaled down etc.  But one major problem could not be solved if the company went in that direction.  That was the massive debt that could not be paid off including pensions to former employees.  Some members of the board argued that the new CEO should stay.  They said he was still the right person for the job.    But at the same time the board of Asian Enterprises had agreed on a new strategic objective.  It was nothing less than the acquisition of USA Industries.  They key to this plan was that Asian would loan money to USA  making it easier for USA industries not to deal with their problems.  Not only did this make USA less competitive but hasten the day when Asian could call its notes and force USA Industries to sell it massive amounts of  the assets of USA Industries and many the corporation itself.

    The only thing that could prevent that is if the new CEO can find the courage to act.  What could he do?  First he could be honest with the board, his employees and his shareholders about the serious problems they face.  He could ask all if the employees to take salary cuts and work longer hours so that the companies products will be more competitive.  He needs to replace many members of his staff with new people how have different ideas about and talents and can help the company increase its revenues.

    What ideas do you have for this CEO?

  • Time for a third party?

    We are witnessing the end of the roman empire except instead of barbarians we have lobbyists.  Today Nickolas Kristof well written column on the recent federal budget crisis, asked  were are the  adults in congress.  My son, Asher, recently wrote something similar on his blog.

    I do not think we can expect adults in congress.  The  time for that is long gone.  But are we not the parents?  When  will we stop pointing fingers at the political system (something I do all the time) and take action.   The people in government, and I include  Obama in this, have as their main priority staying in government.  They stay in government by buying our votes. They get the money to buy our votes from special interest groups.  The group I hate the most is the military industrial complex that  Eisenhower warned us again when I  was just a child.  I hate them because not only do  the drain our economy but because they are also responsible for the death of so many solders and  civilians throughout  the world.  Right after that, we have the health care industry.  And then there is the crazy base of the republican party.  I am sorry but these people are living in the dark ages.  How I wish the rapture would happen and carry these people away.

    I am afraid that now that we have let the government be taken over, there are no easy way for the people to get back control.  I am thinking the only thing to do is to create a third party.  And yes, that might mean that the republican will win even more control but frankly that will only speed up the process that is underway and force others to take much needed action.  Hopefully, it might result in giving those that are still sane, a voice.

    I was recently asked to go to private fund raising event for Obama in San Francisco.  I went to such an event when he was running and via these method  gave money to his campaign.  This  time, I said no.  I am not going to give him a dime.  What ever money I have to spend on political matters, will be spent in calling out the politicians/children/criminals out.

     

     

  • Egypt: a hope an a plea

    Last night we had dinner with some friends.  They, like me are jewish. The dinner conversation turn to the topic of Egypt and what it might mean for the world at large but also what I might mean for Israel.  My friends were concern that Egypt would become an Islamic state like Iran and that of course would become a major problem for Israel. I felt very different and expressed my thoughts which you can read below.
    The USA, Israel and the other  first world democratic states can not keep putting bandages on the economic and political problems of the world.  We can not say how wonderful freedom and democracy is but actively deny it to billions of people through the world because we do not trust them.  Not dealing with the problems now means dealing with them later when they will only be worse.  But of course that is what we do with so many issues.
    I love Israel.  To be truly honest, I am not sure I would give up my life for the USA but  I think that I would for Israel.  But Israel must find a way to co exist in a region of the world that is Arab and Moslem.  It can not build a wall high enough to keep out the missiles  that will eventually come.  And the situation in Egypt may be a great opportunity because the need is so great there.
    Some of my friends last nigh talked of the Muslim Brotherhood and how they would take over Egypt because Egypt has no other political institutions (thanks to all the money we sent to buy off the government and the army).  My friends fail to understand the new order, the power of Facebook., Twitter and Al Jazera.  I am sure that when I was in my 20s inn the streets of America  and protesting  the insane war in Vietnam that things would have been different if we had the internet then.  Not only would we have been able to organize more efficiently but we would have had the facts to support our case that the President of the United States, Lyndon Johnson was lying to the people of the United States.
    Our American government provided Egypt with 1.5 billion dollars which was mostly for military aid.  I would guess that more than half of it went into the pockets of the generals.  We spend more than that every week in Afghanistan.  What if we had invested in colleges in Egypt? What if we had given American companies incentives to build factories in Egypt?  It is not too late for that.
    The median age in Egypt is 24 I believe.  How will Egypt deal with this youth bubble?  It will be a great challenge.  The Egyptian youth is largely uneducated.  Why can’t we spend a few billion dollars teach them the skills that they need? By the way, there are over 100 million arabs between the age of 15 and 30.
    Israel needs to find a way to help the Egyptian people.  It  need to stop thinking  of Arabs in the ways the Americans thought (think of the black and hispanics).
    We have no rational choice but to engage and help but this must be done in away that respects Egyptians and all human beings.

  • China Develops Signficant Military capabilities: Can we surrender now?

    See this article.  I am thinking that maybe we could save ourselves a lot of time, money and blood if we just surrendered now.  Hopefully, china would establish some kind of Marshal Plan for us and rebuild our economy.  They would help us create an effective government.  They might even put the crooks now occupy our government offices (both parties), in jail and give them some much needed rehabilitation.  We could be become the New Germany.

    Oh, the Chinese are so lucky. They have a clear enemy (us) which they can fight the old fashion way with military power while we focus on trying to kill some guys that live in caves and tents.

  • Dear Mr. Obama, please announce you are going to be a one term president.

    You had a chance for greatness but I guess you did not have the capacity for it.  Your ego got in the way once you are made president (it was probably in the way before but I did not notice).  I remember standing only a few feet way from you at a private home in San Francisco when you were a candidate.  I was so impressed with you ability to truly listen to questions and answer them directly.  You seem to be aware that Washington was a dangerous place and even spoke of your fear that you would be in a bubble as president.    But then you got there and decided that you could beat they system. You failed to understand that Congress is like quicksand. Even a giant will sink. It just may take a bit longer.  You played in the the hands of the republicans whose only cynical goal was to get you to fail.  Rather than stand on principle and attack the roots of the problems we have,  you were more concerned with keeping your campaign  promises even if it was only a distortion of what you really said.   I knew you are not the leader that I had so longed for when I saw the terrible way you handled health care.  Rather than standing on your beliefs and refusing to pass a bill that did not deal with the fundamentally flawed system we have, you agreed to a few cosmetic changes with respect to insurance companies and by making it possible for me more people to join this flawed system.  It sickens me that rather than stand up to the military and end the failed war in Afghanistan, you are wasting the lives of our youth and spending large sums of money when the outcome is pretty clear.  I could go on and on but I just have a simple request. Please be a one term president at least for now. You only have two years of your this term left.  If you decided to run again you will waste much of it running for office.  And Sir, you have a  good chance of losing.  Instead, you could announce you will not run again so you can spend your time leading our country.  This will allow a new democratic candidate to emerge. You should state that you will support the candidate selected  by the democratic party but not be involved in the primaries.   After your first term, you will still be very young. You can spend the next eight years (or four if the republicans win) learning from you mistakes, strengthening your abilities in economics and maybe helping the world deal with some of its greatest issue. Then you can run again.

  • Am I still a capitalist at heart or do I just hate government hypocrites

    I don’t know if I am still  a capitalist at heart.  I watched part of the Goldman Sachs hearing and my stomach turned.  Not at what Goldman did but the self serving hypocritical people in our government that are suppose to serve us but mostly severing themselves.  My guess is that Goldman operated legally within the regulations and laws of our country at least with respect to the transactions being discussed. In our system, Corporations have a primary responsibility to their shareholders (and boards have a legal responsibility).  That does not mean that there is not room for ethical considerations.  And most great companies that are built to last believe that being a responsible citizen is part of that.  Wall street does tend to get isolated and decoupled.  The biggest issue on Wall Street is the people are compensated on the short term and take too many risks.  They are also paid way to much. It is not their pay that really matters with respect to the economy but what they are driven to do to get that pay.  But this is where they are one with their brothers in Congress.   Both have control over vast amounts of money.  And both will make decisions that are short term and create great harm to others.  Wall Street has a much higher price however.  I mean a typical senator will sell out is country for a one million dollar campaign contribution.  Wall street wants a lot more.   So now we have the government investigating Wall Street  which conveniently takes away the light from the governments own role in all this.  I would love to see a panel with our government leaders answering questions from smart people from Wall Street.

    Here is a link on the point of view of Warren Buffet with respect to Goldman.

  • Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth

    Abraham Lincoln said in his famous Gettysburg Address ,” Government  of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”.  Well I am afraid he may have been wrong.  We may be in the beginning of a second civil war. Part of our government  (congress) has been slowly  taken over by people who will sell out our country for their own personal gain.    While this  time it is not north versus south it,  like the civil war, it has a lot to do with economics and holding down some people so that other people will get more than their fair share.  Least, I be misunderstood, I am a capitalist.  But what we have now layered on top of our capitalist system is something I term “curuptionalist”.  And it appears that congress, especially the Senate is willing to distroy the future of our country just to maintain the ability to stay in office.  That is why I have suggested term limits in past posts.

    But I have given a lot of thought to how we can have a more representative government.  Here is my idea: We now have the technology to vote  directly on any issue. Most of us can use the Internet and even more people can use cell phones and text.  But the problem with having everyone vote directly is that we don’t have the time or even the knowledge on most subjects.  That is where the Proxy comes in.  We can give our vote on a topic or specific bill to a Proxy. The Proxies are subject matter experts.  For instance, you could give your vote on matter’s to do with Climate Change to Tom Friedman if you felt he would represent your point of view.   Anyone not serving in branch of government could become a Proxy.  Proxies could require a small donation for them to represent you or not.  It would depend on their circumstances.  It would be up to the Proxies to market themselves to voters but virial marketing will work well. The whole system would be run by a non profit organization, called ByThePeople.  that would be established with a clear mandate to just administer the process but not take a position on anything else.   All this would be set up outside of our existing governmental and election structure.  Then a new party would be created called the Proxy Party.  Candidates of this party would agree that they would vote with the majority of Proxies on any one bill.  ByThePeople, would operate the system that would provide  the elected individuals with the results of the Proxies.  Proxies would also provide points of view on what should be in bills etc.  Eventually, we will even be able to change some of the senate rules etc.  Members of the existing parties can also sign up to follow the Proxy vote.

    OK, I know there are a lot of details to be developed.  And maybe this concept does not really work.  But we certainly have the technology to make it happen.  If any of you have better ideas, please comment.  We need to take back our country.  We need to care about our future and the future of our children and grandchildren.

  • Avram Miller’s plan to save America and maybe the world

    I have been pretty negative for some time about our government.  I think congress is disgusting and self serving.  I think the Obama administration is a great disappointment.  We need leadership.  So here I am with my own program to save America.

    Health Care

    • We need to focus on prevention and early detection of disease. This means increase research, education about changing life styles and appropriate medical testing.
    • The amount of money spent in the last year of life needs to be decreased. A great deal of this money is wasted on taking care of patients that hardly know they are alive. The money could be better spent on prevention and early detection so that the last year of life would happen several years later (longer life expectancy).
    • Must phase into a single payer system. The best way to accomplish this is to decrease the age of medicare by two years each year.  In ten years the age will be 45.  At that point every one should be eligible. Only a single payer system can balance the long term with the short term.  Insurance companies have no incentive since they  do not know how long they will have a particular member.
    • Move from an employer based system.  One of the benefit of an employer based system is that it creates a large group of people with different medical conditions, ages and sex.  This can be accomplished in other ways.  The employer based system creates an economic disadvantage to companies since the cost of these plans are high and many non American companies do not have to  carry this burden.  These programs tend to isolate consumers from the real cost. The tax deductions companies get without the consumers taxed on the benefits means that the government is paying a significant amount of the medical insurance cost  without being able to influence how this money is spent. The government should provide a tax credit for medical costs and a deduction on medical cost above the value of the tax credit which can be capped.
    • Reform the legal system and change the laws on mal-practice suits. Remove the anti-monopoly exception for insurance companies
    • Improve the IT in health care.  Standards for consumer health data bases should be established which provide for inter-operability and sharing of data bases.  All medical institutions should be required to use approved health care software
    • Consumer Pricing Information. Methods should be developed so that consumers can get access to both pricing and performance of organizations such as testing facilities (like MRI’s).  Transparency is required.

    Energy

    • We need a tax on energy especially gasoline.  We should set a floor and then increase the floor in determined and known way.  The money resulting from this tax can be given back to tax payers as a credit.  They can decide to use it for energy or something else.
    • We need a mass works program to develop alternative energy sources.
    • We need to create mass transport and provide incentives for  people to use this transport.
    • All other methods of conservation should be encouraged.

    War on Terrorism

    • Reduce direct spending and take money saved and use it to create economic development in key countries like Palestine.
    • Understand that the US wars in Islamic countries only help recruit terrorists.
    • Work with Muslim  leaders to help turn the tide of thinking.

    Employment

    • Establish two years of national service after high school for all Americans.  These years can be used in a number of ways from support of public programs, to peace corp. or even armed service.  This will take the 18 and 19 year old’s out of the work force.  It will give them valuable skills.
    • Establish optional two years of national service for adults between the age of 60 and 70.