Two Thirds Done

Thoughts and experiences of an eighty one year old Wild Duck.

Avram Miller by the sea
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587 posts since 2006

Tag: Obama

  • Israel/Palestian Post Obama

    I have not written much about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for some time. I was busy with the US election. The recent  UN resolution singling out Israeli Settlements and then the recent speech by John Kerry at the UN makes me feel that I have to say something about this very complicated situation.    

    Avram dual national

    For those that do not know, I am a dual American and Israeli Citizen.  Most of my life has been spent in the USA where I was born and raised.  I spent five years with my family living in Israel in the 70s where we became Israeli Citizens. My daughter was born in Israel.  For the last five years, my wife and I have been living part of the year in Israel.  We have been building a home in the heart of Tel Aviv (a liberal city which can be considered the “San Francisco” of Israel) and plan to spend about half the year based there.  Neither Tel Aviv nor I voted for Netanyahu.  I do not support the settlement movement.  By that, I mean settlements in what would be Palestine.  This area is sometimes also referred to as beyond the security walls.  I d believe Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and support its annexation.

    I don’t speak Hebrew.  People in Israel considered me a Jewish American with strong ties to Israel.  I know Israeli’s that do support the settlers and hoped that Trump would win.  I also know that most Israeli’s disliked Obama and did not trust him.  I am sympathetic to this view when it comes his policies on the Middle East. This is not because I think he hates Jews and Israel or is a secret Muslim.  I just think he doesn’t get it which is kind of strange since he spent a lot of time in a “bad neighborhood” called Chicago.  Perhaps it is easier for him to identify with the Palestinians than with the Israeli’s but still, I don’t think that is the reason he had the USA abstain from the recent UN Resolution.  I think he sincerely believes in the “two-state solution” and is very frustrated that he was not the person to achieve it.  He blames Netanyahu and the right wing Israeli government but somehow does not hold the Palestinians equally responsible.  Kerry in his speech spent about 45 minutes condemning Israel and about 45 seconds condemning the Palestinians. 

    Welcome to the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

    Ok, I am going to give a short history lesson from my perspective but before I start I have to say one thing about the conflict.  Not only do people disagree about the present and the future but they also disagree about the past and not in a little way. Israelis have a totally different account than Palestinians about the last 100 years or so.  The reality in my view is something a bit more in the middle. But during this period there were lots of opportunities to adjust the “facts.”  So if you are on the Israeli side, your position is that the Jews were living continuously in the area for thousands of years.  If you are on the Palestinian side, you claim that your people were living in the area for thousands of years.  If you are Israeli, you see a connection to Jerusalem that is indisputable and goes back 3,000 or more years.  If you are Palestinian, you don’t see this connection and see the Dome of the Rock to be the third most holy place for Muslims.  If you are Israeli, you believe that your ancestors came from what is now Israel/Palestine and point to a lot of DNA evidence (I can certainly point to mine.)  If you are Palestinian, you say that the light skin and blond hair of so many Israeli’s shows they are really European (this ignores that so many Israeli’s came from families expelled from Arab countries in 1948.)  So so it goes on.  If you are Israeli you say that there were very few Arabs living in the area before the Jewish population swelled via emigration and created the economics that allowed Arabs from other countries to migrate to the area for work.  If you are Palestinian, you claim that your family has lived in the area for thousands of years.  To all this, I say, forget it. It does not matter. 60% of the Israeli population was born in Israel.  A great deal of the rest was born in Arab majority countries and forced out in 1948.  The people that created this mess including the British are all dead.  We are stuck with a really awful situation where two different people were promised the same land by a bunch of manipulative Brits.

    Why Israel can not agree to a two-state solution

    Most Israeli’s would agree to a two-state solution even if they believe that the West Bank (Samaria and Judah) are really part of historical Israel if they could believe they would be secure.  But they don’t.  What happened after Israel turned over Gaza really destroyed the two-state solution.  Hamas took over and turned that part of Palestine into a terrorist state.  For my American friends, just imagine that the drug cartels took over Tijuana and instead of just selling drugs to Americans and killing other Mexicans, they started firing missiles at San Diego and digging tunnels to enter California with the sole purpose of killing anyone they could find including children playing in their school yards.

    Gaza is about 40 miles from Tel Aviv.  The West Bank is much closer.  Now imagine you lived in San Francisco and the East Bay was held by people that hated you and would be happy to fire missiles at San Francisco and Silicon Valley including the San Francisco Airport.

    Most Israeli’s, including me, think that if there was a truly independent Palestine, it would be taken over by Hamas.  Abbas (the head of the Palestinian Authority) knows this and that is one of the reasons he does not want a Palestinian Nation. Of course, he says he does but he does not do anything to make it possible.  In fact, his safety is only made possible by the IDF (Israeli Defense Force.)  I believe He and Netanyahu are collaborators, only Abbas is better at embezzlement.

    Yes, there are many and a growing number of Israeli’s what want to make the West Bank part of Israel – but slowly.  While many, if not most,  Israeli’s do not agree with settlements past the barrier between Israel and the West Bank (East Jerusalem is a different matter) they have pretty much given up on the two-state solution so this does not matter much.  Yes, they understand that there is an international outrage about this, but so far that has not impacted most of the people in Israel. Their concerns are about the cost of real estate and the problems with parking.  It would be a different matter if they thought there could be a real peace with security.  But they do not.  They certainly did not trust the USA or Obama and for good reasons.  If there was a two state solution and then the West Bank was taken over by Hamas, what would happen?  Israel would have to retake the West Bank or suffer constant attack which could include the destruction of its only international airport.  Thousands would be killed, and they would mostly be Palestinians.  If you love Palestinians, don’t wish them their own state until they are capable of governing it. 

    What you have in Israel now is two political forces. One that wants to take over the west bank and one that does not, but no longer has a believes that a two-state solution is viable. I bet less than 30% of Israeli’s believe there will be a two-state solution which is probably a higher percentage than Palestinians.

    Palestinian Statehood

    There has never been a Palestine state, which is not to say there should not be one.  Frankly, none of the countries in the middle east have had states before they were artificially created by Britain and Frances after WWI.  Most, if not all of the Middle East is tribal (think of America before the Europeans.)  That is why you see so much conflict in the middle east.  There were no nations. There was no Saudi Arabia. There was no Jordan. There was no Lebanon. There was no Syria. The English and the French created these countries and others.  In doing so they did not respect tribal boundaries. In fact, they sought to divide up the tribes so they would not be a strong force. 

    Statehood and Democracy are western ideas.  The people that lived in the areas now called Palestine were ruled by the Turks for more than 500 years and then by the British and French.  That does not mean that there should not be a Palestinian state but it is important to understand that such a state never existed.  That is not the same as saying that Palestinian people did not exist and do not have the right to their own state.

    So now the people that live in the West Bank and the people that live in Gaza want an independent state but hey don’t seem to want the same one.  Please keep in mind the Palestinians in the West Bank and in Gaza have two different governments.  Most of them want just one state from Jordan to the Mediterranean which includes the area occupied by Israel. They are willing to accept an independent country called Israel, provided that descendants of the people that lived in that area prior to the war in 1948 could return.  If that happened, such a country would be a majority of Arabs. Then, if the majority of Israel was not Jewish, Israel, by definition would not be a Jewish State. So in the meantime, which has been almost 70 years, they and their descendants and the descendants of their descendants have been living in refugee camps support by guess who? the United Nations.  In the meantime, an equal number of Jews were expelled from Arab countries and have been fully integrated into Israel.

    The Palestinians have also not been willing to accept Jews as citizens of Palestine.  Israel has an Arab population of 20%.  Would Palestine be willing to have a Jewish population of 20%?  I doubt it.  Just look at what has happened to the Christian populations in Palestine.

    So what does all this mean?

    For Israeli’s, security is number one.  There will never be a two-state solution without convincing Israelis that they and their families will be safe. So far, no one has made any proposals that would make Israeli’s feel safe.  I certainly have heard no proposals from Kerry or Obama.  All the lecturing is meaningless without that.  Kerry is worried that the Settler Movement will make such a two-state solution impossible.  I think he is right.  But he did nothing to deal with the real issues and his speech did nothing either.  If you want Israeli’s to support a two-state solution, you have to really address their security needs.  I have seen nothing put forward that deals with that.

    Palestinians have been raised on a diet of hatred against Israel and Jews.  Yet, when you put individuals together, they can often feel comfortable.  Palestinians actually have much more in common with Israeli’s then they do with Saudi’s.  My experience with Palestinians has been very positive.  I am a supporter of various nonprofits helping Palestinian students and personally have provided funding to individual Palestinians.  Frankly, I would rather do something on a grander scale but have never found a way, but I continue to try.

    What going to happen?

    The can is going to be kicked down the road again.  No one is willing to take a chance on the other and for very good reasons.  Israel is becoming stronger and Palestine weaker.  Frankly, with the exception of Europeans who themselves are getting weaker and some on the left in the USA, no one, least of all the Arab countries, cares about the Palestinians.  Yes, Palestine can get the UN to pass resolutions but they will have little effect on Israel.  Many of the 15 countries that voted for the UN proposal against Israel have strong business relationships with Israel and I doubt that they will weaken.  There are now weekly flights between Saudi Arabia and Israeli for instance.

    Goodbye Obama and Kerry

    I am a democrat and voted for Obama twice and for Clinton in the last election. Trump disgusts me as a human being and I can’t stand that he was elected president.  Now that I’ve  gotten that out of the way, I need to say that I am very critical of Obama’s foreign policy. Obama has a big ego (maybe as big as Trump) but shows it differently.  He had all these ideas for his legacy.  Not only did he want to provide health care for all but he was going to solve the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.  He accomplished nothing with Israel.  In the last four years, he got Kerry to carry his water.  Kerry understood the issues academically but had no idea how to fix anything.  Finally, he gave his pedantic speech at the UN in which he spent 45 minutes blasting Israel and 45 seconds blasting the Palestinians.  What was his intention?  Maybe to get a future job at the UN.  He certainly had zero or a negative effect on the peace process. 

    Enter Trump

    I may be wrong, but it is hard for me to imagine he will spend much time or political capital on Israel/Palestine. He will generally take the Israeli side but won’t really do much.  Netanyahu will become Trumps bitch.  He will be scared to cross him. 

    The one hope I had when Trump was elected is that the Palestinians would realize that things would not get better and they should make a deal, but then I reminded myself that any deal would result in the death of Mahmoud Abbas (literally.)

    Here is my breakout strategy

    I think the Israeli government is waiting for events that will give them some cover with a breakout strategy.  Unfortunately, I think this means some serious terrorism from the West Bank,  and I think that Israel ultimately will take over the West Bank. It will give the people living there a path to citizenship which might take ten years. Israel will not take over Gaza.  So we had a notion of a two-state solution but it turned out to be Greater Israel and Palestinian Gaza.  Israel and Egypt will offer Gaza additional land (maybe increasing the land mass by three times) which will allow the people of Gaza land to expand, have better living conditions, farming and better business opportunities. If Israel makes serious investments in infrastructure in the West Bank to the benefit of the people living there along with other economic incentives, things might just work out but not without a great deal of pain for both sides. 

    I know I am being optimistic but I am writing this on New Year’s day.  If I can’t be optimistic this day, then when?  And if you don’t like what I am saying then please give my not only your criticism but also your point of view and better yet your proposals.

  • The Iran deal…is it the beginning of the end? or the end of the beginning?

    I  really don’t know how I feel about the deal with Iran.  I tend to look at this situation from the eyes of an American/Israeli and the existential threat that a nuclear Iran represents. Through these eyes, it looks like the beginning of the end. The end of Israel. Once Iran demonstrates that it has an atomic bomb, everyone in Israel that has a foreign passport, and there are many, will leave the country.  But through the eyes of an American who is probably not risking the future of his children, it could be the beginning of a new Iran.  Iran is a great country lead by some awful people.  It has so much potential.

    In the short term, the deal agreed to by Obama, which could be stopped by congressional action, will make Israel safer.  I think Iran will be on its good behavior for a while, at least with respect to atomic weapons. 

    This makes Israel the only nuclear power in the middle east.  It also makes Israel the only power that can challenge Iran if it should get nuclear weapons.  That is one of the reasons that Arab countries like Saudi Arabia are holding their noses and making secret deals with Israel.

    The USA will probably try to make up with Israel, especially in time for the Presidential Election.  The Democrats will need Jewish financial support (we don’t have enough people to matter when it comes to votes.)  I doubt that they will put any pressure on Israel to deal with the Palestinians.  The Republicans, who are supported by the Zionist Christians, certainly will not put pressure on Israel.  I am sure that Netanyahu and Abbas called each other up and expressed their hope that Kerry would not be coming back to the region for a while.

    Iran will go after ISIS even harder.  They love a situation where they can kill Sunnis and have the world’s applause. Israel is probably giving intelligence about ISIS activities just as they give ISIS info on Iran’s activities.  

    Oil prices will continue to go down.  This will really hurt Russia, so it is hard to understand why they supported this agreement. There must be something being offered to Russia and China to see them so cooperative. 

    If the deal goes through, Obama will go down in history as either a very courageous man that took risk to keep the USA out of another war and prevent Iran from getting the bomb (at least for a long time) or, as one of the greatest fools of all time for dropping the sanctions and trusting Iran.  At least the man has guts.

    Perhaps, Iran will slowly turn to the west.  Their people clearly want that.  A man can dream!

    The loser in all this is Netanyahu in my opinion.  He showed that he could not stop the USA from doing this deal, and now that it is done (pretty much), he will have to turn his attention to  domestic issues and there are many. 

    The Palestinians continue to see their position weakened even though Europe talks a good game.  No one really cares.  Israel is busy making sure that Hamas and the PLO never get together, playing off of their greed, corruption and the  hatred of each other.

    It will probably be a few months or more before the deal is signed.  This gives us all a lot of time to decide if this is a good deal or a bad deal.  No matter what we think know, we will not really know for many years.

  • Syria, one person got it right

    Last thursday, I wrote on my facebook wall, the real reason Obama had asked congress to vote on the attack in Syria was to get a reason to delay so he could meet with Putin and Putin could talk with Assad but giving up his chemical weapons.

    Well it is happening.  But the press has it all wrong.  Putin proposed this to Obama last week.  It is a big win for both Putin and Obama not to speak of Assad who gets to stay in power.  Even Israel is a winner.

    So, how did I get it right.  Only Snowden knows.

     

  • The story of USA Industries and its new CEO

    You have been brought in to run what had been one of the most successful companies in the world, USA Industries.  The previous CEO had made a number of strategic and tactical mistakes the resulted in tarnishing the companies brand, reduced revenues, poor relations with strategic partners, and depressed employees.  Not only that but this CEO committed the company a number of very expensive project that would be hard to get out of but which would add no value to the companies balance sheet and would in fact reduce the balance sheet.  In order to deal with  the short fall in revenue and the increase in expenses the previous CEO borrowed increasing amounts of money.  The money was spent to keep the company going during this difficult but largely self generated times.   They main interest the former CEO had been to keeping his large institutional investors happy.  He did that by throwing lavish parties,  and giving them discounts on the companies products. He was also concerned  with how the top rank of his company saw him.  He did not want them to question his actions so he kept giving them bonuses.  When the old CEO’s contract was up,many members of the  board felt they needed a different kind of CEO.  They wanted someone young  energetic that would break out of the patterns established by his predecessor.  Other members of the board were concerned about making any changes and felt that business would just come back if they just gave it time.  But they also felt that there should be substantial cut backs in the companies spending.  One of the old guard was also considered for the role.  Both candidates presented their ideas to the board.  Enough of the board believed it was time to change course and so the young man was brought in as the new CEO.

    He moved with his wife and daughters to the city where the company was headquartered.  The company dominated the city and it could really be said that it was a company town.  The new CEO rapidly found that he knew little about how the company really operated.  To make matters worse, he had almost no experience working in the companies industry and had never really run a company before.  He was more like a staff person and had spent a many years in academia.  He had many ideas about what to do but he lacked confidence in implementing them.  Most of the key employees had been with the company for decades and did not really want to change the way the company operated.  Some of the department heads were close to members of the board and a number of them had direct relationships with large  shareholders.

    The new CEO realized that he would have to cut back on expenses and reduce the borrowing or face  the possibility of bankruptcy in the future.  But he was scared that if he took the actions that were required like laying off many employees, killing off some products that were not profitable and getting out of the very expensive long term projects started by the former CEO, the financial markets would react and  both the stock price would go down and the cost of borrowing money would increase.   The company was facing ever increasing competition from an other company.  This company, Asian Enterprises  had been around a lot longer and was going no place for the longest time.  But then there was a management transition.  A much younger and smarter group came to run the company. They believe that there was great opportunity in the market especially since  USA Industries was not really investing in new products and manufacturing processes.  They were right.

    The members of the board of directors of USA Industries grew unhappy with the CEO they had chosen.  The members that had not wanted this man as CEO kept telling the other members what a mistake it was to have brought this inexperienced person on.  In the mean time the financial markets began to realize that the company was really in trouble.  The stock price started falling.  Many employees had their retirement funds in 401Ks with large amounts of  company’s stock.  Senior people saw their stock options become valueless.  There was a growing concern that the company would not be able to continue to borrow money and if it could,  it would be at higher rates. The greatest fear was someday the loans would come due and the company would not have the funds to pay them back.  So the new CEO began to cut back.  He started by cutting R&D even though that meant that the company would not have competitive products in the future.  In the past the company was active in bringing in young people and giving them training.  This program was cut.   He cut salaries and benefits for employees but because he was scared of the senior staff, he exempted them and in fact gave many of the salary increases hoping to buy their loyalty.

    Things just got worse.  So the CEO sold off some of his factories.  He sold the  real estate the company owned and leased it back.  Over time, Asian Enterprise got even more successful. They were a tough competitor and very focused.  Their employees  were willing to invest in the companies stock which caused it to increase in value.  This allowed Asian to begin to buy other companies and increase its expansion over time.    The board of directors of USA Industries began to realize that they had to replace the new CEO.  But now they were really fighting in the board room.  Many wanted to find someone that could promise to bring the company back to its old position as a leader in its industry.  But others knew that this no longer was possible.  They wanted someone that could reorganize the company. Give it a new mission that was achievable.  Get it scaled down etc.  But one major problem could not be solved if the company went in that direction.  That was the massive debt that could not be paid off including pensions to former employees.  Some members of the board argued that the new CEO should stay.  They said he was still the right person for the job.    But at the same time the board of Asian Enterprises had agreed on a new strategic objective.  It was nothing less than the acquisition of USA Industries.  They key to this plan was that Asian would loan money to USA  making it easier for USA industries not to deal with their problems.  Not only did this make USA less competitive but hasten the day when Asian could call its notes and force USA Industries to sell it massive amounts of  the assets of USA Industries and many the corporation itself.

    The only thing that could prevent that is if the new CEO can find the courage to act.  What could he do?  First he could be honest with the board, his employees and his shareholders about the serious problems they face.  He could ask all if the employees to take salary cuts and work longer hours so that the companies products will be more competitive.  He needs to replace many members of his staff with new people how have different ideas about and talents and can help the company increase its revenues.

    What ideas do you have for this CEO?

  • Dear Mr. Obama, please announce you are going to be a one term president.

    You had a chance for greatness but I guess you did not have the capacity for it.  Your ego got in the way once you are made president (it was probably in the way before but I did not notice).  I remember standing only a few feet way from you at a private home in San Francisco when you were a candidate.  I was so impressed with you ability to truly listen to questions and answer them directly.  You seem to be aware that Washington was a dangerous place and even spoke of your fear that you would be in a bubble as president.    But then you got there and decided that you could beat they system. You failed to understand that Congress is like quicksand. Even a giant will sink. It just may take a bit longer.  You played in the the hands of the republicans whose only cynical goal was to get you to fail.  Rather than stand on principle and attack the roots of the problems we have,  you were more concerned with keeping your campaign  promises even if it was only a distortion of what you really said.   I knew you are not the leader that I had so longed for when I saw the terrible way you handled health care.  Rather than standing on your beliefs and refusing to pass a bill that did not deal with the fundamentally flawed system we have, you agreed to a few cosmetic changes with respect to insurance companies and by making it possible for me more people to join this flawed system.  It sickens me that rather than stand up to the military and end the failed war in Afghanistan, you are wasting the lives of our youth and spending large sums of money when the outcome is pretty clear.  I could go on and on but I just have a simple request. Please be a one term president at least for now. You only have two years of your this term left.  If you decided to run again you will waste much of it running for office.  And Sir, you have a  good chance of losing.  Instead, you could announce you will not run again so you can spend your time leading our country.  This will allow a new democratic candidate to emerge. You should state that you will support the candidate selected  by the democratic party but not be involved in the primaries.   After your first term, you will still be very young. You can spend the next eight years (or four if the republicans win) learning from you mistakes, strengthening your abilities in economics and maybe helping the world deal with some of its greatest issue. Then you can run again.

  • Barack is the real thing

    Barack speaks at the Getty homeTonight, my wife and I had the privilege of attending a small reception for Barack Obama at the home of Ann and Gordon Getty.  All I can say, is he is more impressive and more fun in person than on TV.  They closed off the street in front of the Getty’s home which is on Broadway and Lyon in San Francisco .  We were just going in when he showed up right on time along with about 20 secret service people etc . He jumped out of the car with a huge grin on his face and said “Hi guys!  I’ll see you inside”.    About fifteen minutes later he came into this rather large room (the Getty’s are good people but they live like they are the Medici Family so think of this as being more a palace than a house”.  He joked about the place not being up to his standards.  Then he began to give his stump speech.  The crowed was in rapture not because they were hearing some God speak but because they were hearing a real human being speak.  Here are the things that had an impact on me:

     

    1)       The urgency of the moment

    2)      His belief in all of us. In the intelligence and values of the American people

    3)      That there are no real differences in policy between him and Hillary but there is a very different view about how to achieve these policies

    a.       Transparency

    b.      Involvement of all parties

    c.       Not being influenced by lobbyists

    4)      He treated Hillary with great and I think sincere respect

    a.       He thinks that the press makes people think there are great issues than there are.

    b.      He said that after the convention he and Hillary will be standing together

    c.       She is an amazing and strong competitor.

    5)      How he will keep in touch

    a.       He now has small dinners with small donors that are selected randomly.  He will continue to reach out and have direct contact with normal citizens when he is president

    b.      He will also make sure his cabinet does the same

    6)      He believes in us which is even more important than us believing him

    7)      He is very smart but also very intuitive

    8)      When someone asks a question he is thoughtful and then answers them and looks at them when he replies.  He is in a conversation and does not see the question as just a platform.

    9)      He really believes in young people and thinks that he can make politics “cool” just like in the days of Kennedy.  He pointed out that young people are comfortable with being more open (al la Facebook).

    10)  He loves to be with people.

    11)  He likes himself.  He is comfortable being himself. 

    12)  He is a man that did not really have a father but want to be a father and a brother to all of us.

     

     

     

     

  • How Hillary got my vote

    I went to bed a Obama supporter and woke up committed to Hillary.  What happened?  Well I had a dream in which I and a couple of friends were sitting together with Hillary.  One of  my friends asked her how she found enough time to read books.  She picked up a book and started talking about it and in the process leaned over me to show my friend something in the book.  I could feel the softness of her body as it touched mine.  In that moment, Hillary became my mother.  How would you not vote for your mother?  So unless I get a nocturnal visit from Barack, Hillary has my vote.

     It is funny how dreams an effect us.  I normally do not remember my dreams and I wonder how experiences like this really effect my thoughts, feelings and actions.