Israel / Middle East

The Iran deal…is it the beginning of the end? or the end of the beginning?


I  really don’t know how I feel about the deal with Iran.  I tend to look at this situation from the eyes of an American/Israeli and the existential threat that a nuclear Iran represents. Through these eyes, it looks like the beginning of the end. The end of Israel. Once Iran demonstrates that it has an atomic bomb, everyone in Israel that has a foreign passport, and there are many, will leave the country.  But through the eyes of an American who is probably not risking the future of his children, it could be the beginning of a new Iran.  Iran is a great country lead by some awful people.  It has so much potential.

In the short term, the deal agreed to by Obama, which could be stopped by congressional action, will make Israel safer.  I think Iran will be on its good behavior for a while, at least with respect to atomic weapons. 

This makes Israel the only nuclear power in the middle east.  It also makes Israel the only power that can challenge Iran if it should get nuclear weapons.  That is one of the reasons that Arab countries like Saudi Arabia are holding their noses and making secret deals with Israel.

The USA will probably try to make up with Israel, especially in time for the Presidential Election.  The Democrats will need Jewish financial support (we don’t have enough people to matter when it comes to votes.)  I doubt that they will put any pressure on Israel to deal with the Palestinians.  The Republicans, who are supported by the Zionist Christians, certainly will not put pressure on Israel.  I am sure that Netanyahu and Abbas called each other up and expressed their hope that Kerry would not be coming back to the region for a while.

Iran will go after ISIS even harder.  They love a situation where they can kill Sunnis and have the world’s applause. Israel is probably giving intelligence about ISIS activities just as they give ISIS info on Iran’s activities.  

Oil prices will continue to go down.  This will really hurt Russia, so it is hard to understand why they supported this agreement. There must be something being offered to Russia and China to see them so cooperative. 

If the deal goes through, Obama will go down in history as either a very courageous man that took risk to keep the USA out of another war and prevent Iran from getting the bomb (at least for a long time) or, as one of the greatest fools of all time for dropping the sanctions and trusting Iran.  At least the man has guts.

Perhaps, Iran will slowly turn to the west.  Their people clearly want that.  A man can dream!

The loser in all this is Netanyahu in my opinion.  He showed that he could not stop the USA from doing this deal, and now that it is done (pretty much), he will have to turn his attention to  domestic issues and there are many. 

The Palestinians continue to see their position weakened even though Europe talks a good game.  No one really cares.  Israel is busy making sure that Hamas and the PLO never get together, playing off of their greed, corruption and the  hatred of each other.

It will probably be a few months or more before the deal is signed.  This gives us all a lot of time to decide if this is a good deal or a bad deal.  No matter what we think know, we will not really know for many years.

4 thoughts on “The Iran deal…is it the beginning of the end? or the end of the beginning?

  1. I’m listening to your president justify this deal. I’m sure it runs deeper than any of us could know. And I’m sure it’s about a deal that none of us will know. We all want Israel to be safe, this is our priority. Is it about American control of the Middle East ? He sounds so confident.

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  2. Review of this deal should start with the alternatives. The west will get access to Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran will rid itself of 95% of its fissile uranium, reduce the number of centrifuges and prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for at least a decade. Once Iran starts exports of natural gas and oil, Europe will have another source of supply that will further continue to weaken Russia, with the low price for hydrocarbons. China will now have a second supply of Nat Gas, reducing dependency on Russia as well.

    The sanctions imposed on Iran will unravel over time, with or without a deal. The west has locked up Billions of Iran’s foreign reserves, with the deal western corporations will once again invest in Iran and Iranian popular opinion will wonder why they wished isolation upon themselves, forgetting the shortcomings of the overthrown Shah. Iran is a modern country, if only the west would allow it.

    Keep your friends close, your (potential) enemies closer?

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    • It seems to me the alternative to the deal was Israeli air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities using bunker buster bombs.

      It’s much harder to do this now. That’s why it’s bad. I’ll quote Alan Dershowitz:

      “Israel, which is not bound by the deal because it was not allowed to participate in the negotiations, still has military options, but Israel is far less likely to be able to employ them, since the international community stands behind the deal. Russia is preparing to send Iran a sophisticated missile defense system, and the deal itself encourages members of the P5 plus one to help Iran securitize its nuclear program. Secretary of State Kerry has warned that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program would be a “huge mistake.”[50] So under this deal, Iran has succeeded in reducing, if not eliminating, the threat of military action, ending the crippling sanctions, and changing its status from that of a lawless pariah nation to that of an equal partner in negotiations.”

      As the population of Iran becomes more secular and westernized and the regime gets more threatened who knows what will happen. It’s important to remember that no matter what Obama thinks they are not equals to other world powers. They are rogue apocalyptic end-of-days religious fanatics who think life is just an anteroom to a superior afterlife and are willing to sacrifice millions of fellow muslims in a nuclear war.

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  3. Robert A. Romanuk has a good comment here. “Sanctions imposed on Iran will unravel over time, with or without a deal”. Frankly, those sanctions have zero moral justification today and the stress and tension caused there is exactly the force that creates / empowers the hardline language. It is just that… talk. If talk was “war” we had nuclear war with Russia 10x already. Israel needs to look closer at facts, #s and ratios. Killing 10x or 100x the people in response to offenses and then complaining… This is childish. We do the same here in USA (Iraq war vs 9/11) and kill 10-100x but we do not cry and complain like children. We are wealthy and strong and generally well equipped to meet future challenges. So is Israel. It is long passed time to let Iran have another opportunity to turn towards peace and commerce and love. And away from war and religion and hate. I would bet on that turn.

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