This post is about my thoughts regarding the evolution of virtual and argument reality. I recently wrote about Apple’s Vision Pro (I was not enthusiastic).

But I believe that virtual and augmented reality will play a significant role in technological evolution and significantly affect humanity. My primary concern regarding the widespread adoption of this technology involves the need for a “headset” or goggle-like devices, rather than something more like the corrective glasses or sun-glasses that the majoriy of the world’s population own and use every day. The new word for this is “social acceptance”, and once it is coupled with demand for comfort and expectation of high-performance, the bar is set impossibly high – even for companies like Meta that spent $30 billion since 2019. This is the price-tag of trying to overcome simple laws of physics that continue to hamper delivery of display eyewear that humans want to wear.

Virtual Reality is 3 dimensional. The term for this is Spatial Computing.  You can expect to hear a lot more about this.  Apple recently introduced Spatial Audio which gives one the sense of bing in a 3D mentioned space as you listen to sound. 

Googles versus Glasses

I first got involved in VR/AR1999 when I agreed to advise a company called Microvision (see press release below). I am often too early. In this case, I was more than 20 years too early. The concept we were exploring, direct laser projection to the retina had a number of issues, but primarily the fact that big media experiences would require big goggles – that consumer would not want. Microvision abandoned their vision and the team left to form a new company called Innovega, which I still advise. Innovega dealt with unbreakable laws of physics by changing the rules – they removed the 1 inch or more circular lens (or 2 inch flat lenses) and were therefore able to collapse the headset to size of normal glasses.

But the secret sauce is that they are used incombination with soft, disposable contact lenses that bring both real-world and virtual world into focus – simultaneously. For a first application they have demonstrated how they can restore the equivalent of 20/20, normal vision capabilities the vision impaired, and even legally blind. It is a company with great technology but for various reasons has not been able gain traction.  I have not given up. 

But right now, I am going to imagine that somehow the issue I have been concerned with will find a solution, either using Innovega technology or some other way that I do not know of. Or perhaps people will be ok with wearing bulky, heavy headsets and goggles (“facewear”).

Lots of Platforms

There are at least four significant platforms under development, Apple’s Vision Pro, Meta with Oculus, Google and Samsung are working on a platform, as well as Snapchat.  There are surly others.  This reminds me of the time pre the IBM PC.  There were many incompatible personal computers but the only one to survive the IBM PC was Apple’s Mac which was announced some three years later.

Two semiconductor companies will be the significant suppliers to the platform manufacturers, Qualcomm and Nvidia. My former employer, Intel, made many bad choices that have eliminated it from participating in this new platform, just as the decision not to manufacture ARM for the iPhone took Intel out of the mobile computer market.

Network Architecture

The computer industry cycles between centralized and decentralized architectures over time. I believe VR/AR will utilize what is called Edge computing. The heavy computing will be spread out from centralized servers to locations close to the VR/AR platform and the platform itself. But low latency is critical, so 5G Networks will be vital. AI will play a significant role.

The smartphone will likely provide most of the local computing required over time. The VR/AR face wear will primarily have a display and various I/O devices, such as many cameras.  

VR/AR Platform replaces the desktop.

I believe that products like the Vision Pro can replace today’s desktop/notebook computer, but only if ergonomic, social acceptance, and comfort problems must be addressed before many people will be willing to spend hours wearing their computers. But it will eventually happen. Such products will provide a much richer environment for work fueled by applications developed for this environment.  

It will not replace our smartphones until we see Face-wear that is more like today’s prescription glasses.  That is where Innovega has a chance to be a game changer.

Impact on Culture

The impact on the evolution of culture will be much more significant than the impact of personal computers, smartphones and tablets because it has the potential to rewire our brains.

Education will change, and this will even change the way our brains evolve. Think briefly about how much more interesting and stimulating a biology course would be it taught from a 3D-immersive VR platform. The result will further create a divide in our society. Those that have money will get access much earlier and guess what?  Make even more money.

The Role of AI

AI will play a fundamental role in shaping these new platforms’ development. The result will be that those with them will start to feel and, in some sense, superpowers.  

What next

The next step will be direct brain interfaces. Not sure if it will be implanted as Musk believes. I have a better idea and one that is non-invasive. 

From Microvision/Avram Announcement in 1999

Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq: MVIS), the leader in retinal scanning display technology, announced today that it has entered into a multi­year consulting agreement with Avram Miller, a leading business development and strategy consultant. Microvision and Miller will team up on the development of Microvision’s next­ generation retinal scanning display technology for applications in mobile computing devices.

By scanning a single beam of light directly onto the eye, retinal scanning display technology projects high ­resolution color images without the use of a conventional display screen or panel. To date, the importance of this technology has been its use in “heads-up displays” for military, medical, and industrial uses. More recently, Microvision has demonstrated a “consumer” version of the technology that will make it possible for mobile devices such as cell phones to display the same amount of information as notebook computers at a reasonable cost. The company believes this has the potential to redefine the role of displays in mobile devices such as Cell Phones, PDAs (personal display appliances), and game devices. 

“Several months ago, we made a strategic decision to accelerate our activities relating to displays for mobile internet applications. Soon after, we achieved a technical milestone, demonstrating, for the first time, a prototype of a retinal scanning display that used just three micro-miniature LEDs and two scanning mirrors to form a high­ resolution video image,” said Rick Rutkowski, CEO of Microvision, Inc. “When we realized what we had in hand, we knew that it was now time to get help from someone who had the strategic vision, industry connections, and ability to make things happen on a large scale. We are very fortunate to have Avram Miller collaborate with us in redefining the display capabilities of mobile devices. Avram has a proven ability to recognize major technological discontinuities that create significant business opportunities and then to act on those opportunities.” 

“Mobile devices are where it is at,” said Avram Miller, CEO, The Avram Miller Company. “It reminds me of the early ’80s and the birth of the PC. So many critical technologies are converging in the mobile arena. Bandwidth is coming with 3G, voice recognition promises to change the way we command and communicate with mobile devices, location detection will increase the relevancy of the information we receive, and when combined with miniaturization and long battery life, mobile devices will become a fundamental part of everyone’s lifestyle. All of this,” Miller continued, “will be connected to the ever-expanding power and pervasiveness of the Internet.