The situation between Israel and Palestine and their respective supporters is highly polarized. As a Jew and as an Israeli (I was born in the USA and am still a citizen of that country as well), I am generally aligned with the Israeli side, but I hate writing that because I wish there were no sides in the first place.

Writing this blog post has been a struggle. I have many thoughts and have not found an adequate way to connect them, so I have decided to write them down with the hope that, somehow, this post will come together.

OCCUPATION of the West Bank and Gaza (1967 war)

After the 1948 War of Independence, Jordan occupied the West Bank, and Egypt occupied Gaza. There was no thought of establishing a Palestinian State by Jordan or Egypt. In 1950, Jordan annexed the West Bank, made it part of Jordan, and conveyed Jordanian Citizenship to its inhabitants. The Egyptians did not do that in Gaza. The Eqyptians despise the Palestinians, as far as I can see.

In 1967, there was a war between Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria, the Six-Day War. Israel won quickly and decidedly and occupied the West Bank and Gaza (Egypt had not annexed Gaza). Israel held on to the West Bank and Gaza with the mistaken belief that they could trade these areas for peace with Jordan and Egypt. But neither Jordan nor Egypt wanted these territories back. The reasons are very revealing but the subject of another blog post. If the West Bank was part of Jordan, that situation would have emerged very differently, although hard to predict.

How the Israeli Government’s strategies put Israel at existential risk

There have been times when Israel was ready to support a Palestinian state. That support cost the life of Rabin in 1995 (because of the Oslo Accords). The blame for not reaching an agreement lies on both sides. 

Israel began to let Israelis move to the area occupied in the six-day war. This was partly allowed for security reasons but also was politically motivated. Establishing settlements other than ones that were contiguous to Israel proper (and would have become part of Israel in a land swap peace accord) did not make Israel safer. It created a tremendous economic burden on the state to protect the settlers. It created even greater hostility amongst the Palestinians and made much of the world hostile to Israel. If the purpose was security, it failed miserably.  

The settlements create a significant impediment to a two-state solution. While many of the “settlements” would be part of Israel proper in a land swap, there are several settlements that are all over the West Bank, which ended up sliced and diced with Israeli roads. The settlers are, in many cases, fanatic due to religious or just nationalistic views. In a rational world, the Palestinians would offer the settlers the ability to stay in the West Bank as residents, pay taxes, and contribute to the development of Palestine, but that indeed would not have been the case. The settlers would be forced to leave the West Bank. They would not go peacefully, resulting in a mini civil war.

Israel has worked to subvert the development of a Palestinian state by subverting the development of a strong government in the West Bank. They have supported the corrupt head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. They provided financial support to Hamas. They would argue that they could not deal with the Palestinians as there was no one to represent them in total.  

I could go on and on with the mistakes of the Israeli Government and even the arm. I can use just one word to express my thinking: “Hubris.”

There must be a Palestinian State, but there can not be a one

I have always wanted to see a state for the Palestinians but had concluded that there was no way to accomplish this without putting Israel at risk. I believed in the “kick the can down the road” strategy. Now I see how wrong I was. Preventing a Palestinian state on the borders of Israel did not provide security for Israel, as can be seen by the horrific events of Oct. 7th. But it is precisely because of those events that Israelis will be even more resistant to establishing a state for the Palestinians anytime in the next 25 years. Palestinians hate the Israeli Jews and are committed to the destruction of Israel. They have been taught in school to hate the Jews. It is not easy to overcome this kind of hatred. It is possible, but it takes time. Vietnam is a good example. The war ended in 1975. It took 20 more years for diplomatic relations to be established. But this is not a great comparison. Vietnam lies almost 8,000 miles to the west of the USA. Palestine would be on the border of Israel, just miles from Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport.  

The best we can hope for is a gradual path to a sovereign Palestinian nation. After what was done to Israelis on Oct. 7th, how can anyone expect Israel to allow the Palestinians the ability to do the same but now from the West Bank? It will take a generation. It would also require some radical thinking. I hope to share my ideas in this regard soon.

Israel is far weaker than was thought.

I, for one, thought that Israel was much stronger than it has shown itself in this current war, which demonstrated a significant failure of intelligence and imagination. Not only do I realize this now, but all those against Israel as well. Significantly, Iran has been boosted in its desire to rid the world of Israel and probably all Jews.  

Israel’s system of Government has been shown to have serious issues, and the country is now run by a man who is more interested in his own self-preservation than that of the nation he is supposed to lead. As long as Netanyahu is the Prime Minister, there is no hope for a solution. He plays the role of a Strong Man, but he is the weakest Prime Minister in Israeli history. Unfortunately, removing him will be difficult unless his own party members turn against him. It could happen. I think there will be more demonstrations against the current Government. But Netanyahu knows that if he is no longer Prime Minister, he will likely end up in Jail. He would not be the first Israeli Prime Minister to see the inside of a prison cell.

Israel’s army is too small to fight a war in the North and the South. It relies on its air power. If Hezbollah strikes Israel in the North, Israel will have no choice but to use all the air power it has to destroy them and probably most of Lebanon. Hezbollah knows this, which is why they have shown caution, but Israel will probably be the aggressor. Currently, almost 100k Israelis who normally live near the northern border live in temporary housing. After the massacre of Oct. 7th, the Government decided to evacuate the towns that are along the north of border rather than take the risk that Hezbollah would enter Israel and commit the atrocities that Hamas did, but probably on a much larger scale. This situation can not go on indefinitely. Israel is threatening Hezbollah and telling them to back away from the border, but Hezbollah will not do that. I suspect a war in the North within the next three months.

Iran is stronger than was thought.

Iran has surrounded Israel with Proxey, Hamas in the South, and, to a lesser extent, in the West Bank, Hezbollah in the North, and even now, the Houties in Yemen. I believe that Iran is working with Russia as well as Russia is hoping to destabilize the USA. However, Iran may take on more risk than it is prepared for. Israel and, indeed, the USA can do substantial damage to Iran. But in the process, Iran would attack Israel with missiles. They would block the Strait of Hormuz, maybe damage the Suez Canal, and generally play havoc with the world oil supply.  

The USA Election

All this is going on while the USA will be deciding on who will lead that country. Russia is undoubtedly hoping that Trump wins again. But Trump is a wild card (and I am being kind), and no one can predict his behavior, including his willingness to use nuclear weapons. Getting the USA embroiled in a war with Iran would likely help Trump win. Biden must know that, and this will make it difficult for him as he considers his strategic options.

The significance of continued Antisemitism 

It is still with us. Soon after the war started, I began seeing some Israelis leaving Israel. In a sense, I am one, although my personal story is more complex than a reaction to the war. I am astounded at the latest

expressions of antisemitism. Jews throughout the world are being attacked, literally, for being Jewish. I thought we were done with that. It is both scary and disappointing. But It also strengthens the belief of many Jews and certainly Israelis that Jews must have a nation where they can be safe. Israel is no longer that nation, but it is the best we have. 

Will the Start-Up Nation Stop

Israel was a vibrant and young country that became one of the world’s leaders in tech. Many of those who worked in the early stage tech industry have been called up to serve in the war. While investment in early-stage Israeli companies has declined, it is still happening, but I think sentiment will change at some point. I know companies that I am close to are moving assets, including cash, out of Israel.  

Sadly, the Palestinians, rather than becoming part of the technological renaissance, are busy 

destroying it.  

What will happen

I don’t know. Sometimes, I imagine a good outcome, one where there is a Palestinian country living in peace with Israel, with all the Arab nations accepting Israel. Lebanon rebuilt. Iran embracing democracy and freedom.  

Sadly, the outcomes I can envision are dark, with no winners. Sorry to be so pessimistic.