Of course, everyone is talking about the Iran Nuclear Deal especially here in Israel where I am living at the moment. This a place where a national pastime is asking the question “Is this good for the Jews or bad for the Jews?” This question comes up not only in the context of a political discussion, but it could be asked about the restart of the Hadron Collider or the introduction of a new Apple TV.
I am not going to discuss the deal per se. Frankly, I don’t know how I feel about it. One minute, I think it is a good deal and then the next, I think it is a bad deal. I think Obama does not understand the middle east and is a fool, but then I think he is brave and wants to stop the continued American War in the region which has done nothing to secure peace for anyone.
So I will share with you a few of the random thoughts that might pass for wisdom if one ignored the source (me).
The Bull(y)
Iran does not need a lot of atomic weapons to fire at Israel unless they really do have a mission to finish Hitler’s business. All they have to do is test one atomic weapon and everyone in Israel with a foreign passport, especially those that have young children, would be lining up at Ben Gurion Airport. Yes, Israel has atomic weapons and the ability to destroy Iran in retaliation for the destruction of Israel but that does not make people feel safe because Israelis fear that the Iranian leadership is not rational.
I would guess that Iran already has a few atomic weapons which they acquired from our friends, the Pakistanis or maybe from North Korea. They have the missile capability to reach Israel. Sure, Israel might be able to stop a missile but these missiles are not like the sling shots that Hamas uses. Who would take a chance? The reason I think that Iran has been building up their capabilities is not to threaten Israel, but to become the biggest bully in the region.
Iran moves to Plan B
The sanctions really were hurting Iran which is the only reason they came to the table. But getting rid of the sanctions in return for stopping their march towards obtaining atomic weapons, does not strengthen them in the region. That is where Plan B come into effect. Iran will use the gain in its economic power resulting from the end of sanctions, to make mischief all over the region. They will accomplish this by funding and equipping Shite terrorist groups like Hezbollah or the Houthi Rebels in Yemen. There will be turmoil all over the middle east and North Africa. Eventually, it will make its way into Saudi Arabia and could affect the Saudi’s ability to produce oil. This could eventually have the blessed effect of boosting Oil prices for the Iranians and their secret backer, Russia (more about this later).
Of course, they will go after Israel using Hezbollah whom they have already equipped with tens of thousands of missiles. If Hezbollah attacks Israel in a way that really damages the country by killing off thousands of civilians and closing the airport, Israel will wipe them off the face of the earth. They will not have enough body parts left to enjoy their 72 virgins. But Iran will not care much, after all, they are only Arabs and not Persians.
Netanyahu and the blessings of ISIS
Is ISIS good for the Jews or bad for the Jews? That answer as cynical as it sounds is, that ISIS is good. I am not going to explain everything to you so use your own imagination. It was Menachem Begin that said, “when your enemies are fighting, wish them both success”.
Master Putin and his magic carpet
As I mentioned, a few countries would benefit from Saudi Arabia in Turmoil. Russia, significantly, would benefit the most. And anyway, this kind of things is right up Putin’s alley. So guess where the excess Iranian nuclear material is to be stored?
The Solution: Sex, drugs and Rock and Roll
Clearly there is only one solution and that is a change in the Iranian regime and the introduction of Western Values. That would be so wonderful. The Iranian people are great and they know how to party. It was in Iran where I learned to drink ice cold Vodka and eat caviar by the pound. I spent time there in the 1970s and hope to go back someday. But how can this be accomplished? If I were running Israel, I would be ramping up a program to make this happen. What choice does Israel have? Microdrones anyone?
Obama’s Real War
Now Obama must deal with Congress. This may prove more difficult than negotiating with the Iranians. Right now, I think it is 50/50 that the deal will be approved by congress. They will have to pass a law to prevent it and have a veto-proof majority which means that finally we will have a bipartisan bill.
As I said at the beginning of this post, I don’t know if this is a bad good deal or a good bad deal. I would guess that Obama does not really know himself. But given his limited time in office, we will probably not find out before he goes. I bet Obama has a calendar somewhere where he checks off the days remaining for him in Office.
Two Thirds Done 
Interesting analysis with a lot of valid points. A key one, that most Americans do not realize, is that Persians are not Arabs. We tend in this country to paint with broad brushes because of our ignorance of world affairs. Hence, Americans fail to understand that in the Middle East and much of the Third World, the roots of enmity are not territorial, national or even religious. At their very genesis, we are dealing with Tribal histories and Tribal mentalities.
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Yes, Phil it is all tribal. We were so lucky to loose 10 of our twelve tribes. Even then, we managed to have two kingdoms at the same time. We Jews invented the original two state solution.
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I enjoy reading your blog as you have a view point that many don’t. however, I would like to add a few comments here:
1- There is already turmoil in the middle-east and north Africa. One of the oldest is the result of Israel/Palestine conflict and I would say root of many problems in the middle-east.
2- The Iranian regime and leadership is rational. The problem with Iran is crony capitalism, corruption and mismanagement of economy, and:
3- They say and do things they can’t go back on. Down with America and Israel are tenets of the “revolutionary” Islamic regime. They have to keep repeating this BS or they think they lose legitimacy.
4- The regime is deeply unpopular and the vast majority of Iranians don’t really care for the “revolutionary” stuff the regime stands for, instead they want a real democracy.
5- Iran wanting to wipe Israel out is nonsensical. The likes of Hamas and Hizbollah are pawns the game of power and dominance in the middle-east and Israel is a player in that game and so is Saudi.
6- The west has done far more damage in the middle-east and Afghanistan than Iran (with the help of our Saudi friends).
7- Just like Jews, Iranians have a fear of attack and destruction. Although Iran/Iraq war doesn’t even come close to the holocaust, nevertheless, it destroyed 1 million lives and much more. Everyone’s friend at the time, Mr Saddam, was getting help from the west and Arabs even when he was bombing heavily populated Iranian cities and gassing Iranian troops (many youngsters among them). I Believe the only help Iran received during the 8 year war was some shipments of arms from Israel and the bombing of Osirak reactor in Iraq.
I hope living in Israel you can still keep an open mind! And I really hope you can one day visit Iran. Western values are prevalent and people still party.
Regards
Kamran
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Thanks Karman for your thoughtful comments. Please let me respond in order.
1) Frankly, I don’t think the Palestinian/Israeli conflict is the cause of any of the conflicts in the middle east other than the one between the Israeli and Palestinians. Rather, the leaders of Arab countries have utilized this conflict to focus their populations on this rather than their awful performance in their own countries. This is not a comment about the merits of either sides position in the Israeli/Palestine conflict.
2) the Iranian regime is probably rational but it is hard to believe that if you live in Israel and watch and see they things the leaders do. Also the like to fund other’s to do their dirty work.
3) Maybe but I can’t really speak to that.
4) I totally believe that I hope with my whole heart that the Iranian people can live in a free and democratic country where they can prosper and perhaps actual earn the position of the leader in the region rather than try to take it by force.
5) I doubt that Iran would try to actual take action against Israel directly. They don’t do that. Rather they use the pawns as you describe them. These pawns live less than an hour to the south and an hour and a half to the north. How would you like it if the Russians were funding Mexican terrorist to fire missiles at El Paso and Phoenix?
6) Agree. The policy of the USA has been a disaster pretty much since the end of WWII and certainly a disaster in the middle east.
7) I can understand that but thanks to the USA, Iraq is no longer an issue. In fact, there are not any real threats to Iran. I certainly wish Israel was in such a position.
I always try to keep an open mind. Of course I am influenced by the people around me, the things I read and the things I see. I do have Palestinian friends and I mean real friends. We agree on somethings and disagree on others but we still have respect and affection for each other.
I do hope I can return to Iran someday. I can not go now. It would only take someone a few minutes on the internet to figure out that I am an Israeli as well as an American. It is not safe for me now.
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If I may add another point, an attack on Iran by either Israel or the US would have united all Iranians behind the regime even though Iranians have no desire or stomach for a conflict or war. I think Obama has done great. Regime change in Iran should be gradual and from within. Gradual reform and change that will in effect culminate in “regime change” in a 10 to 20 year period.
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I agree with this but wonder what you think Israel should do if there is a significant attack from the north by Hezbollah with Iranian weapons including missiles and lead by Iranian military leaders.
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Israel has every right to defend itself and is pretty capable of doing so but I think Israel badly needs to focus on the most pressing and important problem on its hands. The conflict with Palestinians seems secondary to Israel but the rest of the world doesn’t think so.
The real or perceived double standards of the west is the root cause I am referring to. And yes, there are no shortages of so called leaders in the middle east who have led their countries into ruin. Just think what Iraq could have/should have been.
Look forward to reading more of your views.
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Kamran;
You and I don’t know each other. You seem to focus on the Israel/Palestine conflict as the root of problems in the Middle East. You keep going back to it. I would love to see peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but the problems are deeper than that.
First of all, the problems between Arabs and Jews in Israel predated the existence of the state. There has been Arab resentment of a Jewish presence with the return of Jews to lands that they purchased from the Arab landowners that began in the 1870’s. There were massacres of Jews in the Palestinian territory (note, I say territory because there has never been a Palestinian entity of any sort unless you go back to the days of the Bible) that date back even before the British Mandate. The Jews of Jaffa were massacred in riots in 1911, as well as in Hebron in 1929. The Grand Mufti of Jerusalem was a supporter and guest of Adolph Hitler during WW II.
The Palestinians have been the pawns of the Arab states from day one. While peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians would be great, there is no way that the Muslim nations or the Arab nations (since Iran and Turkey are not Arab nations) have that anywhere near the top of their agendas. It is only the top of their propaganda. There is a huge difference.
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Kamran, as they say “it is complicated”. I think we have to look at reality and not rhetoric. Europe continues trade with Israel. Indian and China are increasing trade with Israel as is Africa. There are all kinds of things going on between Israel and Arab states including Arabia and the Emirates. It is easy in Israel to forget that the country is located in the Middle East and certainly easy to forget the plight of the Palestinian people who have been taken advantage of not only by Israel and every Arab state and Iran but also by their own leaders who stolen billions. The whole thing is disgusting and there is no one innocent.
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You both make some very valid points. No light at the end of the tunnel and that is depressing.
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