Writing this post reminded me of how screwed up the US electoral system is. It is essential to understand how the presidential election works. To be declared the presidential election winner, they have to win a majority of the electoral college. Every state gets a specific number of electoral votes based on population. All the votes are awarded to whoever got the most votes wins, except in Maine and Nebraska, which can split their votes. The four million American citizens in Porto Rico and other USA territories have no votes. This system means it is possible to win the presidency but lose the popular vote, which has been the case in almost every election where a Republican is.
Third-party candidates can change the outcome in a state when the race is close, as happened in 2015 when Jill Stein cost Hillary Clinton the presidency and gave President Trump. But there is another way that third parties can change the election results.
To win the presidency, one has to win the majority of the electoral college. There are 538 electoral votes, or “electors,” meaning a candidate needs to secure 270 to win. When there are only two candidates, this is always the case.
Even if there is a third-party candidate in a state, there is no issue as long as that candidate does not win the greatest number of votes. But if a third-party candidate wins one or more states, this could result in no candidate winning 270. Then the decision on who is elected president falls to the House of Representatives but in a bizarre way. Each state gets one vote. They have to choose between the top three candidates. For a candidate to be selected, they must receive an absolute majority of the votes, meaning 26 (50 states). If this does not happen before the 20th of January, the Speak of the House becomes president. It is the Senate that chooses the Vice President. Fifty-one votes are required. So it is possible to end up with a President and Vice President for different parties.
This bazaar system means that Wyoming, with a population of less than 600,000, would have the same vote as California, with a population of more than 39,000,000, for both President and Vice President. The most likely scenario is that the House would elect the Republican candidate and the Senate, the Democratic candidate.
No Labels
No Labels is the third party most likely to create a situation like in 2015 or even throw the choice to Congress. They are playing a dangerous game, in my opinion.
Green Party
Cornell West is the Green Party candidate, the party that previously nominated Jill Stein and Ralph Nader. I don’t get these people. Nader likely cost Gore the 2000 election and gave us eight years of Bush. Stein likely cost Clinton the election and gave us at least one term of Trump. h
Trump as a third-party candidate
If, for some unlikely reasons, the Republicans do not nominate Trump, he could run as a third-party candidate. He would surely get enough votes to throw the election to Congress and could be elected president by that body.
| Year | President | Party | Percentage of Popular Vote | Electoral Votes |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | Democratic | 51.31% | 306 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 46.09% | 304 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 51.06% | 332 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 52.87% | 365 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 50.73% | 286 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 47.87% | 271 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | Democratic | 49.24% | 379 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | Democratic | 43.01% | 370 |
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush | Republican | 53.37% | 426 |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan | Republican | 58.77% | 525 |
The popular vote can be affected by third parties, as in the case of Ross Perot, who ran in 1996 and 1992. Even with Jill Stein taking away enough votes to put Trump in the White House, Hillary Clinton won over 53% of the popular vote.
Two Thirds Done 
Considering the abysmal choices a third party would win the Electoral College majority.
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I’m not so worried about Trump winning the presidency as I think it likely that as soon as a slate of electors that supports him has been filed in one state, there will immediately be a raft of lawsuits challenging his qualifications based on the 14th Amendment. Also, note that the way things worked during Reconstruction when this was last applied, court findings of guilt in a previous criminal trial were not required to find that specific individuals were disqualified as candidates. The mere fact that the events of 1861-65 happened was enough. Expedited processing of the cases, which presumably will be consolidated, is unlikely to happen before half of the primaries are actually over. This suggests that the R’s are headed for a very messy convention and unlikely to have a candidate until afterward.
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I so hope you are right.
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The Electoral College system is screwed up. Unfortunately, it was created by our Founding Fathers. Most of them were wealthy landowners and many were slave owners as well. They did not trust the will of the masses to make the right decision and created the Electoral College so that they could overrule the will of the people (who they felt to be ignorant plebians). When the Electoral College was first created, the states were not bound by the popular vote, hence the opportunity to overturn the results.
That having been said, our electoral system is far better than Israel. The current situation is a travesty. The ruling coalition is a group of several parties, each with its own agenda. Bibi, who only cares about staying out of jail, is selling out the Israeli public, he’s even selling out his own party. Bibi only got approximately 25% of the popular vote. It’s been decades since a major party in Israel has even garnered 35%.
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Israel is worse but that would no longer be true of Trump gets back into power.
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